Ben Linfoot Value Bet: Investec Oaks day tips at Epsom

Recommended Bets: Value Bet

1pt e.w Mythical Madness in 2.35 Epsom at 40/1

1pt win Storm King in 3.45 Epsom at 14/1 

1pt e.w Horseplay in 4.30 Epsom at 14/1

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It’s 14 years since Andrew Balding won the Investec Oaks with Casual Look in his first season with a licence and he has a fine chance of winning the Epsom Classic for a second time with HORSEPLAY (14/1 William Hill, Coral, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1,2,3) on Friday afternoon.

On the bare form Horseplay has plenty to find with red-hot favourite Rhododendron, but the Aidan O’Brien-trained filly is very short considering she’s stepping up fully half a mile in trip. She brings the best form into the race, is bred for the job and is trained by a genius, so she’s obviously highly respected, but I’d be prepared to take on almost any filly that was running 50 per cent further than she has ever done before at odds-on.

And, while Galileo seems able to pass on stamina to just about all of his progeny, it just nags away at me that Rhododendron’s dam, Halfway To Heaven, was a miler that was extremely fortunate to win over 10 furlongs in the 2008 Nassau Stakes at Goodwood.

I’m not saying Rhododendron won’t stay, just that she has become very short in her quest to do so and the percentage she takes out of the market has pushed some good fillies out to very backable each-way prices, of which none are more appealing than the 14/1 about Horseplay.

By Cape Cross, who has sired three exceptional Epsom Classic winners in Sea The Stars, Golden Horn and Ouija Board, Horseplay first displayed her above-average ability when winning a Nottingham maiden by 13 lengths last October.

That was in soft ground (she will be fine if the thunderstorms hit Epsom before the Oaks), but she proved her effectiveness on faster conditions when winning the Tweenhills Pretty Polly Stakes at Newmarket’s Guineas meeting, a trial that has produced a couple of Oaks winners in recent years in Taghrooda and Talent (as well as Ouija Board herself going further back).

I liked the way she picked up to beat Ralph Beckett’s Isabel De Urbina that day, all the more so with it being just her third career start and first of her three-year-old campaign. It’s fair to expect plenty of improvement on the back of that run, as the stable’s horses are very rarely fully tuned up first time out and she should thrive on her first go at a mile and a half.

Her dam won over a mile and five furlongs and Horseplay is related to loads of stayers, including hurdles winner Devilment and mile and a half winner More Mischief. 

It’s impossible to know if she’ll handle the track, but she is of a smaller frame which gives hope she’ll nip around Epsom’s ups and downs and she did have a spin around the course at Breakfast With The Stars, just like Casual Look did back in 2003.

Balding had a treble at Epsom the day Casual Look won the Oaks and his affinity for the track has not waned over the years. Indeed Brorocco won at this course for the handler in late April and he has a good chance of following up that win in the Investec Wealth & Investment Handicap at 3.45.

The problem is he’s 5lb higher in a better race and he can be a tough ride given his tendency to pull hard early on. If he settles well for Oisin Murphy he’ll go close, but at the general 5/1 I’m happy to leave him alone this time. 

If there is some rain before this contest I’d expect to see support for Imshivalla, who won this race last year off an 8lb higher mark when conditions were riding soft. She’s interesting, as is What About Carlo, another that goes well here, while Grapevine could easily bounce back at the track he won by 10 lengths at last summer.

However, I don’t see an awful lot of competition for the lead in this race and it could turn into a tactical affair. And if STORM KING (14/1 general) gets loose on the lead, he could be tough to reel in.

His trainer David Griffiths is better known for his exploits with sprinters, with Duke Of Firenze and Take Cover flying the flag for the yard in that regard over the last few years.

But Griffiths has got Storm King back on the winning trail since stepping him up in trip, as he was a 92-rated miler when he first arrived at the yard a few years ago. Dropped to 72 at the start of the year after a long winless streak, Storm King won at Southwell in March over a mile and three off a mark of 74 and then he won returned to turf last time off 80 at Chester.

That form has received a boost, too, as the third and second that day, Energia Fox and Kapstadt, finished first and second respectively in a 10-furlong handicap back at Chester last Saturday.

The collateral form boost means Storm King is a couple of pounds well in off a mark of 83 at Epsom on Friday and he’s well drawn in three to attack from the front again, just as he did at Chester.

Finally, David O’Meara’s MYTHICAL MADNESS is a massive price at 40/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3) in the Investec Click & Invest Mile Handicap at 2.35.

This looks a weak renewal of the race and Remarkable’s presence at the top of the weights means a couple at the bottom are out of the handicap, while there are a few struggling for form and others, like Mutarakez, are difficult to win with.

GK Chesterton and Sixties Groove deserve to be up there with Remarkable at the top of the betting, but the former ran about a bit at Newmarket and cheekpieces are enlisted for the first time, while Jeremy Noseda’s horse drops drastically in trip on his first run for 205 days.

Remarkable is arguably the most solid, but he was pretty well beaten off the same mark in the Victoria Cup at Ascot on his latest start and with question marks hanging over just about everything this race is ripe for a shock.

Mythical Madness was below form at York last time, but that was a messy race in the rain-softened ground and they were strung out all over the Knavesmire afterwards. Before that he was claimer-ridden at Haydock and there’s a good chance those two runs were warm-up acts for the main event at Epsom.

His owners love an Epsom runner as their Brocklebank won at the track before turning out at the course frequently and the combination of the drop in trip, the return of the visor and the jockey booking of Silvestre de Sousa suggest that this has been Mythical Madness’ target for some time.

The handicapper has dropped him 6lb to 95 on the back of his last two runs and that makes him competitive on very recent form. In December he won off a mark of 94 at Wolverhampton and in January he won off 97 at the same track. In February he was beaten a neck by former Cambridgeshire winner Third Time Lucky and that was the last time the visor was employed.

De Sousa has a good record for O’Meara when getting the call, winning eight times for him from 35 rides at 23 per cent for the last five years, a record that has produced a healthy level-stakes profit of +40.75 (helped largely by the victory of Louis The Pious in the sadly missed Buckingham Palace Stakes at 33/1 at Royal Ascot in 2014).

Mythical Madness looks likely to be dropped in from his wide draw here, but De Sousa is riding with supreme confidence at the moment and if he times things right he just might be able to pull off a shock win at a big meeting yet again.

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Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +385.74pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current). 

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Posted at 1700 BST on 01/06/17.