Goodwood tips: Best value bets for Tuesday July 27
Matt Brocklebank looks ahead to day one of the Qatar Goodwood Festival and identifies three horses he wants on side at big prices.
Value Bet tips: Tuesday July 27
1pt win Sky Defender in 1.50 Goodwood at 16/1 (General)
1pt win Emperor Of The Sun in 3.35 Goodwood at 22/1 (Betfred, William Hill)
1pt win Desert Safari in 4.10 Goodwood at 16/1 (General)
Familiar feeling as Glorious meeting returns
Backing hold-up horses at Goodwood isn’t always a bad idea and no doubt a few will feature in this column throughout the week, but Tuesday’s opening Unibet ‘You’re On’ Chesterfield Cup Handicap is a race in which you don’t want to be trying to circumnavigate too many horses as the winning line looms.
Granted, there’s likely to be more than enough early pace in here to set things up for the potential closers – in theory at least – but, having said that, most of the confirmed front-runners are drawn low and as a result may be able to keep enough in the tank to fight out the finish between themselves.
That was the case last year when pace-setting Maydanny hammered stablemate SKY DEFENDER by five lengths, though it’s not hard to see the roles being reversed on this occasion.
Not only is Maydanny seemingly a far better horse on good or quicker ground, Sky Defender – as you’d expect as a son of Farrh – handles some cut just fine, highlighted by a Group Three second on good to soft in Germany and another highly creditable runner-up effort on soft going at York’s Ebor Festival last August.
York hasn’t always been a happy hunting ground for the Mark Johnston representative and he only beat four home there in the John Smith’s Cup last time out, but it's worth stressing he was dead last of 22 in the same Knavesmire handicap last summer, before chasing home Maydanny in this race on his very next start.
Rated 104 at the time and second off that same mark at Epsom in the spring earlier this year, he’s been dropped to 99 now and is consequently 17lb better off with Maydanny, who hasn’t added to his tally since powering home on a sound surface here 12 months ago.
Given the significant weight swing, prevailing conditions and the fact Sky Defender had to use up plenty of gas early on to get over from stall 13 last year (Maydanny was drawn in one), there’s every reason to side with Franny Norton’s mount, whose only other Goodwood appearance came on his racecourse debut when again filling the runner-up spot behind subsequent Celebration Mile winner Duke Of Hazzard.
More of the same in sprint handicap...
Johnston has plenty of chances elsewhere on the card too but DESERT SAFARI stands out at the prices in the Back To Goodwood Handicap.
He’d be a fitting winner of this having struck over course and distance at the early-May meeting on what was his first ever try over the minimum trip.
He’s run over it just the once since – when unable to recover from a poor start in the Gosford Park Cup on the Tapeta surface at Newcastle – so remains totally unexposed as a five-furlong horse on grass.
He’s also back on exactly the same mark from which he won earlier in the year, while Joe Fanning seems to get on well with the four-year-old and he’s back in the saddle for the first time since the May win, too.
The only obvious snag is that he’s drawn in stall 15 of 17 which could prove troublesome if El Astronaute tries to fire up the centre of the track from box three, closely followed by Rewaayat on his inside, but three stalls away from Ornate (12) is never a particularly bad spot to be in sprint handicaps, so the draw isn’t enough to put me off Desert Safari, particularly at the odds.
Emperor can rule in day-one feature
Charlie Appleby might just have the Unibet Lennox Stakes cornered with last year’s winner Space Blues backed up by Jersey Stakes-winning three-year-old Creative Force, but it could be worth dipping a toe into the Al Shaqab Goodwood Cup Stakes.
Stradivarius is no longer all that daunting to take on, having won one of his last five starts, while Sir Ron Priestly and Spanish Mission are evidently much happier on a truly sound surface.
That brings Trueshan firmly into the picture and he’s been backed accordingly in the build-up but the four Irish raiders certainly aren’t without hope and EMPEROR OF THE SUN, who has a soft-ground second to Princess Zoe at Galway on his CV, appeals most at the prices.
Now with Donnacha O’Brien (started off with Aidan O'Brien), he went six outings without registering a win last season but improved on a promising comeback third in April to win the Saval Beg at Leopardstown from Search For A Song earlier in the year.
The Gold Cup at Royal Ascot was all a bit much for him and he’s clearly got ground to make up on both Spanish Mission and Stradivarius on that bare form but he surely wasn’t seen to best effect having fluffed the start and never really managed to get into a race completely dominated by Subjectivist on the front end.
He went off 16/1 at Ascot and, given he’s such a big, raw, galloping type of colt who looks like he’ll get better and better in time, I’m willing to give the four-year-old another chance to prove himself at the highest level down to two miles here.
Published at 1430 BST on 26/07/21
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