Best horse racing tips for Ascot & York: Value Bet preview for Saturday July 24
Matt Brocklebank looks ahead to the big betting races this Saturday and identifies the value across the competitive cards at Ascot and York.
Value Bet tips: Saturday July 24
1pt win Mystery Smiles in 2.25 Ascot at 14/1 (BetVictor)
1pt win Lahore in 2.40 York at 20/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
1pt win Gulliver in 2.40 York at 10/1 (General)
1pt win Documenting in 3.00 Ascot at 40/1 (General)
1pt win Cliffs Of Capri in 3.00 Ascot at 20/1 (bet365)
Ascot has been dealt something of a tricky hand weather-wise so far this year and that trend could continue with thundery showers forecast throughout Saturday.
It’ll take some fairly serious downpours to affect the going appreciably, though, given the hot, dry build-up to the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth QIPCO Stakes, and the predicted 10-12mm of rain would effectively only match the levels of irrigation applied to the course on Thursday morning anyway.
It’s a beautifully-poised Group One and, from a punting perspective, there are reasonable alternatives just about everywhere you look if inclined to take on market leader Love after her hard-fought Prince of Wales’s Stakes success at the Royal meeting.
It’s usually sensible to pay close attention when a trainer like John Gosden openly admits he may have left a horse short of full fitness and on that basis I’d expect to see a leaner, meaner Mishriff than the one who moved stylishly for four fifths of the Coral-Eclipse, before weakening uncharacteristically to finish third.
You sense he’s got a bit more to offer in this summer’s middle-distance division and it’s worth pointing out he’s still as short as 5/1 for the Juddmonte International.
If forced into a bet then he or Irish Derby-runner-up Lone Eagle would be preferred to Epsom hero Adayar at the prices, but thankfully that’s never been the ethos of this column and I’d much rather dig through the contenders for the Moet & Chandon International Stakes in which DOCUMENTING merits a bet.
Granted, opposing Matthew Flinders and Motakhayyel, who are officially well-in to the not-inconsiderable tune of 10lb and 6lb respectively, could prove to be folly here but I’m going double-handed against the pair, including Kevin Frost’s eight-year-old.
Juddmonte cast-off Documenting has become something of an all-weather expert by trade (5-18 strike-rate on synthetic surfaces) but he’s no fool on turf either and arguably posted a career-best performance when winning over this course and distance (follow link for free replay) from a mark of 101 last September.
That came on the back of a pretty stylish York success too, prior to which he’d made his return to turf when ninth behind Motakhayyel in the Buckingham Palace at Royal Ascot.
Roll on 12 months and he’s straight here for his second run on grass of 2021, following an outing at the Royal meeting. This season’s June effort was far less encouraging but, in fairness to the horse, he was drawn 30 stalls away from the winner Highfield Princess. He also started 17 boxes adrift of the runner-up, 23 from the third, 28 from the fourth and 20 lower than the eventual fifth.
In short, he was effectively competing in a completely different race to those who fought out the finish and it’s a run I’m happy to scrap as he wasn’t completely disgraced in the far-side group.
The outing won’t have been lost on him fitness-wise either, and I’m not too put off by his lofty rating of 104 as he won a Lingfield handicap from 107 (Ray Dawson took 5lb off, admittedly) in October.
This really strong traveller won’t want much more rain than is forecast to hit the course through the morning but he looks potentially quite well drawn this time in eight, close to Epic Endeavour (10) and Tomfre (11), with other likely pace-enforcers Shine So Bright (held-up last time in a change of tactics) and Marshal Dan even lower in stalls six and five.
If it turns out all the action is high, and it would hardly be a great shock with the favourite in 19 and the progressive Dance Fever 17, there must be a chance we see CLIFFS OF CAPRI (stall 21) back to something like his peak.
Another vastly experienced campaigner, he’s been a real star for the Jamie Osborne yard, winning nice races here and in Dubai along the way. He’s had more than his fair share of near-misses too but that’s all part and parcel when it comes to seven-furlong specialists rated in the 90s, and he just looks back on a fair mark again now (95).
That’s a pound lower than when fourth in the 2020 Buckingham Palace and 3lb below the mark from which he was second to Blue Mist in this very race last summer.
He was outstayed over a mile in the Hunt Cup last month but still ran as if in decent shape and he definitely caught the eye when seventh in the Bunbury Cup at Newmarket last time. Easing him 2lb on the back of that effort, when ‘winning’ on the far side, looks generous enough.
He’s only 5lb better off with the impressive Bunbury winner (Motakhayyel) but does look to be arcing back to his best and getting back over the course and distance where his career record reads 151342 can only be deemed a positive.
MYSTERY SMILES looks well worth chancing in the Porsche Handicap.
A winner on good to soft and good to firm ground as a juvenile, he won’t mind what the weather throws up and the booking of William Carver claiming 5lb brings him squarely into the equation if he’s able to produce something like his best.
He was third in the Gimcrack last August and just about matched that level of form when filling the same spot in both the Group Three Sirenia Stakes at Kempton and the Craven Stakes at Newmarket on his seasonal comeback.
The Guineas – when sent off 66/1 – didn’t happen for him at all but he’s been given loads of time off since which suggests he wasn’t quite right on the day, and he’s still worth persisting with at a mile in light of that fairly promising Craven run (the winner was beaten a short-head by Poetic Flare in the Guineas itself).
The Sky Bet Dash is the main betting attraction at York and the top two appeal most at the odds.
GULLIVER is back on an attractive perch of 98 having won three course and distance handicaps from marks of 102, 100 and 95 within the past two years.
He kicked off this year rated 109 and was immediately cut some slack by the assessor for some lesser all-weather efforts before returning to turf with a decent sixth behind Mr Lupton here in May, and then a very solid fifth to Rohaan in the Wokingham (both off 99) the following month.
He was hampered right at the outset when trying his hand in the hugely competitive Scurry Handicap at the Curragh most recently so that run can be excused and another change of jockey, with Danny Tudhope required at Ascot for his principal owners, isn’t a bad thing at all as he’s generally responded well to a new rider in the past (has won for five different jockeys all told).
LAHORE isn’t as obviously well-treated but Billy Garritty claims 3lb and big-field handicaps on decent ground do bring the best out of this horse.
He’s yet to really get that ideal scenario this term but has only had the two outings, once on the Tapeta at Newcastle, the other in a five-furlong Listed race when doing some reasonable late work to be sixth behind 114-rated Winter Power, who was in receipt of the sex allowance.
Lahore’s peak efforts last summer read really well in the general context of this event, the close sixth to Nahaarrr in the Ayr Gold Cup coming off a mark of 104, and the win here in July over the minimum trip (under another 3lb claimer in Rowan Scott) off 101.
From stall six (Gulliver is in one) he’s got likely pace-setters Manigordo (three) and last year’s winner Muscika (12) either side to help tow him into things and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see this race really develop towards the far side rail, as it often has in the past decade.
Published at 1500 BST on 23/07/21
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