Free betting tips and match preview: Sky Bet Championship - West Brom v Derby County
Wednesday's TV game comes from The Hawthorns where West Brom welcome Derby. Tom Carnduff picks out his best bet.
Recommended bets
1pt Wayne Rooney to score anytime at 15/4
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West Brom v Derby (Sky Sports Football, 17:00 BST)
Even with an early evening kick-off time, this isn't the first Sky Bet Championship game taking place on Wednesday with Millwall facing Middlesbrough at 3pm.
This contest is huge in the context of the promotion picture though. Derby need three points to close the gap to the play-offs while West Brom are battling Leeds and Brentford for one of the two automatic promotion places.
Derby may have dropped points at home to Nottingham Forest last time out but they have been in great form since the restart. Wins over Millwall, Preston and Reading have fired them firmly into the play-off picture and another big result here will be a massive step in the right direction.
West Brom suffered a blip following the break but they've bounced back with wins over Sheffield Wednesday and Hull. Seven goals over the past two games also indicate that they have found their attacking flair once again. Perhaps crucially, those goals have given them a better goal difference than Leeds.
Wayne Rooney has been a star since arriving at Derby in January and it's no coincidence that they have seen an upturn in form since he signed. We're seeing him play in a deeper role, almost like a quarterback, but it is proving effective as the Rams look to take part in yet another play-offs.
His five goals in 15 appearances highlights the attacking threat that he still possesses and he's proven to be problematic from opposition defences on set-pieces. Derby's recent win over Preston saw Rooney find the net directly from a free-kick.
Three of those five goals have come from outside the area and Sky Bet make it 14/1 that Rooney does the same here. Instead, it's worth taking the 15/4 best price available on a goal anytime; that value is appealing enough without needing to try and find that bit extra elsewhere.
Rooney is a regular in this Derby side which means playing the full 90 minutes as well as taking full set-piece duties. The draw with Nottingham Forest was the first time in his stint in the East Midlands that Rooney has failed to post at least one total shot.
The boost for Derby, and indeed Rooney on his chances of scoring, is how fragile the Baggies defence appeared during their win over Hull. They conceded twice against the Championship strugglers and there was a stage where West Brom looked like conceding every time their opponents broke forward.
Even with the home side the favourites for success here there is every chance the Rams strike the net at least once across the 90 minutes. At near 4/1, it's worth backing Rooney to be the one on the scoresheet.
The expectation will be with a West Brom win but we can't dismiss Derby's chances based on their form in the second-half of the season and the need for three points here.
Given Cardiff's clash with Blackburn on Tuesday, there's every chance that Derby could be six points behind the play-off places by the time they kick off and the absolute minimum needed here would be a point.
They've progressed well under Phillip Cocu's guidance and were massively helped by Rooney's January arrival. Even with West Brom's place in the division, the Rams will fancy their chances of success.
Derby or draw on the double chance is above even money with the majority of bookmakers and that is worth consideration for inclusion in any midweek accumulators.
Score prediction: West Brom 1-1 Derby (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Best bet: Wayne Rooney to score anytime at 15/4
Opta facts
- West Brom are winless in their last three league meetings with Derby (D1 L2) since a 3-1 win back in February 2010.
- Derby have won their last two away games against West Brom in all competitions, most recently a 4-1 hammering in October 2018.
- No team have scored more goals in Championship home games than West Brom this season (40), while they come into this game having netted four against Hull last time out.
- Derby will be looking to record four consecutive Championship away wins for the first time since October 2014 under Steve McClaren.
- Matheus Pereira has made 15 assists for West Brom in the Championship; the most by a player in a single season since Bournemouth’s Matt Ritchie in 2014-15 (17).
Odds correct at 1430 BST (06/07/20)
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