Premier League review: Brentford buzzing, Brighton's revenge on xG, De Gea saves the day
Liam Kelly reviews the Premier League action from a data perspective, highlighting points of interest after the latest round of matches.
The aim of this weekly column are to provide standout stats from each round of fixtures, to use underlying numbers to identify recent trends, and to inform punters with tools to improve their betting on the Premier League.
Brentford's backline is buzzing
A fair amount of praise will be heaped upon Ivan Toney this week, and deservedly so following another outstanding display in Brentford's 2-0 win at Wolves, but I'm certain there will be plenty of opportunities to touch on his impact in the coming months.
For now the spotlight should stay on Brentford's defensive play, which is showing remarkable quality in their first ever Premier League season. Only reigning champions Manchester City hold a lower expected goals against (xGA) total than Brentford (4.27 xGA) after five matches.
Although the 1.45 xGA conceded at Molineux is their highest allowed in a game, it was perhaps the best performance from Thomas Frank's side this season when considering game state.
The Bees held a two-goal lead after 35 minutes and played with 10-men from the 64th minute onwards after Shandon Baptiste's second yellow card, events that often only invite further pressure on a defensive unit.
Not only did Brentford hold on for the victory, but they kept a third clean sheet of the season, a solid foundation in their quest to emulate Sheffield United and Leeds in impressing immediately after promotion.
They welcome Liverpool next weekend, a team averaging 3.20 expected goals for (xGF) per game this season, but don't be surprised if Frank's side keep the title contenders quiet.
Brighton's revenge on xG
For those of you who missed the opening series of Industry on BBC during lockdown 2.0, there's a wonderful line on football and why the masses love it.
"It dispenses joy and misery at random."
Brighton are finally basking in the sunny side of randomness, variance, luck or whatever label you might attribute to the utter madness Graham Potter has endured from a data perspective in his tenure as Seagulls boss.
The misery of being involved a relegation battle, despite posting the fifth-most expected points in 2020/21, has been replaced by the joy of starting this campaign with four wins from five games with a middling process (+0.2 expected goal difference).
'Honestly Thiago, I hate xG.'#BHAFC 🔵⚪ pic.twitter.com/Rm4ag3MsDW
— Brighton & Hove Albion (@OfficialBHAFC) June 15, 2021
It would be a waste of time to propose reasons behind the change in fortunes, too. Brighton are simply a good team under the direction of Potter, subject to the same randomness, variance, luck and other variables as any other team — albeit at a higher rate.
That's why we love the sport, though, no?
De Gea saves the day
When it comes to dispensing joy and misery at random, the Super Sunday opener between West Ham and Manchester United didn't disappoint in the slightest.
Penalty drama was the order of the day, with Mark Noble missing a chance to equalise with a last-minute spot-kick that was saved by David de Gea, despite being substituted on for that one single task.
It is, of course, funny to look at the West Ham captain's touch map as our sole data analysis of the moment, but it's also worth discussing the form of De Gea. The vital save ended a run of 40 successive penalties scored against him in all competitions for United and Spain (including shootouts), perhaps an exclamation point on his return to form this season.
In what is thought of as the best metric available for measuring shot-stoppers — post-shot expected goals (PSxG) minus goals allowed — De Gea is excelling.
- Post-shot expected goals (PSxG) is measured by information from the point the shot has been taken up until the shot were to pass the goalkeeper; a metric that is expected goals based on how likely a goalkeeper is to save a shot.
Only Liverpool's Alisson (+2.6 PSxG), who has snuffed out multiple high-probability chances this season, holds a better post-shot expected goals differential than De Gea (+2.0 PSxG).
Make no mistake, United need De Gea close to his 2017/18 form if they want to challenge for the Premier League title, and a crucial penalty save will only serve to boost what was a fragile confidence.
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