Euro 2020 betting tips: Italy v Wales best bets and preview
Italy have been superb at Euro 2020 so far and Tom Carnduff has three big-priced bets for their clash with Wales on Sunday.
Euro 2020 betting tips: Italy v Wales
1pt Leonardo Spinazzola to score anytime at 18/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Francesco Acerbi to score anytime at 16/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
0.5pts Francesco Acerbi to have 1+ assists at 25/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
I'm not quite sure why, but there's just something about watching a great Italy team playing that keeps you glued to the TV. After seven years of disappointment at major tournaments, barely coming close to success, this Azzurri side has delivered a highly enjoyable 180 minutes of football so far.
They'll want nine points from nine and serious momentum to take into the knockout stages. It should be another victory against Wales but Rob Page's side are enjoying a memorable tournament of their own with victory over Turkey all-but guaranteeing them a spot in the round of 16.
Rotation may come into play here but we wouldn't expect wholesale changes given how the positions aren't yet finalised. There is also that importance of victory for the home side and wanting a good tie in the round of 16 - it could be a contest filled with goals again as the two meet in Rome.
Kick-off time: 17:00 BST, Sunday
TV channel: ITV
Venue: Stadio Olimpico - Rome, Italy
Italy 4/9 | Draw 16/5 | Wales 7/1
In the preview of Wales' game with Turkey, their issues with defending set-pieces was highlighting and it became more evident despite the 2-0 victory over the Turks. A theme throughout Wales' opening two fixtures has been that opposition centre-backs have enjoyed shots on goal.
Switzerland's centre-backs combined for three total shots while Turkey had four. Seven shots conceded to centre-backs across two games is a huge cause for concern and Italy, who saw an early Giorgio Chiellini goal ruled out for handball against Switzerland, can capitalise from set-pieces.
In what would have been a whirlwind 25 minutes for Chiellini man of the match backers, the Italy defender went off injured and he will be a doubt for involvement in this game. With other options available, it's likely that they won't risk him if he isn't 100% fit for the contest.
If he isn't involved in the game then the 16/1 available on FRANCESCO ACERBI TO SCORE ANYTIME appears to be a real value option. His presence in the air may cause real issues for the Wales defence when Italy are awarded free-kicks and corners.
The Lazio defender averaged 2.1 aerial duels won per match across all competitions in the 2020/21 season and posted 1.3 shots per game across four appearances for Italy in the Nations League. His efforts should have brought more than the one goal on his tally.
Both Chiellini and Leonardo Bonucci are priced at 13/1 for a goal anytime which is worth considering when the team news is revealed but Acerbi represents the value option of the three. At 25/1, I'm not against a small stakes play on ACERBI TO HAVE 1+ ASSISTS either. While he is a centre-back, he did grab an assist in all three club competitions this season.
He registered one assist in each of Serie A, the Champions League and the Coppa Italia. What is interesting is that all three came via a cross into the box and having the ability to do that, alongside winning headers for others to convert, gives further hope to this selection.
Based on the showings of Wales' first two games, contrasting performances but both gaining positive results, Italy will know the advantage they will hold on attacking set-pieces and if Chiellini is absent, Acerbi can step in and star in an attacking sense.
Sticking with the Italy defence and another selection is LEONARDO SPINAZZOLA TO SCORE ANYTIME. The full-back has been a real positive feature of this team so far and he often finds himself playing as almost a left winger because he's so far forward.
He netted twice and assisted a further five for Roma in Serie A and his tournament so far has been really positive in attack. His expected goals figure sits at 0.56 while his expected assists figure is around the same mark at 0.54.
Spinazzola is a fantastic fantasy football option because of the clean sheets plus potential attacking returns and, based on what we've seen so far, I'm willing to back the huge odds available for a goal at any stage across the 90 minutes. He will get one if he keeps playing as he is.
Italy v Wales best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Leonardo Spinazzola to score anytime at 18/1 (General)
- 1pt Francesco Acerbi to score anytime at 16/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
- 0.5pts Francesco Acerbi to have 1+ assists at 25/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Score prediction: Italy 2-0 Wales (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 1400 BST (17/06/21)
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