England World Cup 2022 squad odds: Who will make Gareth Southgate's 23?
“The World Cup? Ages away! England haven’t even qualified yet!” you might chortle.
But, in reality, Qatar 2022 is only just over a year away and, barring a string of catastrophes in their remaining four group games, Gareth Southgate’s Three Lions will be on the plane to the Middle East.
Who, however, will be among the 23 he picks? And, from a punting standpoint, is there value to be weeded out?
Even now, still 14 months away, we can select some absolute surefire picks (barring injuries).
Jordan Pickford, Harry Maguire, John Stones, Luke Shaw, Declan Rice, Kalvin Phillips, Jack Grealish, Raheem Sterling and Harry Kane are surely on the plane already, and maybe a handful of others.
But history tells us there will be some players - a Ben White, a Bukayo Saka - between now and then that creep into contention and snag a spot fairly late on.
Which goalkeeper should I back to make England’s World Cup squad?
This is a five-horse race to whittle down to three – well, two, actually as Pickford is a certainty. As such, I’m intrigued by the 11/10 on offer about AARON RAMSDALE to make the cut.
Arsenal splashed out £30m to bring the Sheffield United stopper to The Emirates and he has already usurped Bernd Leno as the Gunners’ starter between the sticks.
To make England's 2022 World Cup 23 man squad - Goalkeepers (via Sky Bet)
- 1/20 - Jordan Pickford
- 1/5 - Dean Henderson
- 5/6 - Aaron Ramsdale, Nick Pope
- 9/4 - Sam Johnstone
Odds correct at 0930 (04/10/21)
Ramsdale was called up to England’s Euro 2020 squad after an injury to Nick Pope and was selected ahead of the Burnley keeper for this week’s qualifiers, Southgate citing Ramsdale’s “better form”.
His performances, in a brief space of time admittedly, for Arsenal have been impressive and while he has suffered back-to-back relegations from the top flight, Ramsdale has shone despite both Bournemouth and Sheffield United going down.
He looks better placed for a run as Pickford’s deputy than either Dean Henderson, a massively unbackable 1/5 to make the squad, or Sam Johnstone, who is priced at 9/4.
Henderson is embroiled in a tug-of-war over the Manchester United starting spot with David de Gea, while a season in the Championship at West Bromwich Albion is not going to aid Johnstone’s cause.
Ramsdale appears to have jumped above Pope in the queue despite still awaiting his first senior cap and, if he maintains his spot in the Gunners’ goal, it’s not difficult to see him putting Henderson and Johnstone in his rear mirror too.
Which defender should I back to make England’s World Cup squad?
There are eight defenders odds-on to make the squad and seven are either too short to back or come with question marks.
Stones and Maguire (1/20) are cast-iron, as is Shaw (1/12). Kyle Walker is getting on a bit now at 31 and has so much competition at right-back he could be the worst 1/8 shot ever. Odds are he will make it, but I’d want a better price than that.
To make England's 2022 World Cup 23 man squad - Defenders (via Sky Bet)
- 1/20 - Harry Maguire, John Stones
- 1/16 - Ben Chilwell
- 1/12 - Luke Shaw
- 1/8 - Kyle Walker
- 1/3 - Ben White, Trent Alexander-Arnold
- 8/13 - Reece James
- Evs - Ben Godfrey
- 5/4 - Tyrone Mings
- 7/4 - Kieran Trippier
- 2/1 - Fikayo Tomori, Joe Gomez
Odds correct at 0930 (04/10/21)
Trent Alexander-Arnold – seemingly back in Southgate’s good graces – is a better 1/3 shout than Ben White, but the big thing that jumps out at me in the price disparity between two Chelsea defenders who both made the Euros cut.
Look, I get it. We haven’t got many left-backs and we’ve got an absolute abundance of right-backs. But Ben Chilwell is 1/16 to make the squad and REECE JAMES is 8/13 – and that just isn’t right surely.
Chilwell’s time at Chelsea has not gone as he would have liked – barring the small matter of a Champions League medal – while James’ star is very much on the rise.
The other standout price, perhaps in the entire market, is the 4/1 offered on CONOR COADY, a man described by Southgate’s assistant Steve Holland as England’s Euro 2020 ‘player of the tournament’.
Platitudes for a man who didn’t play a minute? Perhaps. But Coady has been a mainstay of the squad for more than a year now and he has clearly stamped his personality on the set-up.
If the World Cup was two years away I’d have more reservations but Coady has been included in both autumn squads now and Southgate is a loyal manager – if you’re playing for your team, and playing well, as Coady is, he’ll pick you.
Look at the players who dropped out from 2018 to 2021 – Danny Rose, Eric Dier, Jack Butland, Jesse Lingard, Danny Welbeck, Gary Cahill, Fabian Delph, Phil Jones, Ashley Young, Dele Alli, Ruben Loftus-Cheek. All players who lost form, had injuries or struggled for game time.
Coady is unlikely to fit into any of those brackets, a constant colossus for Wolves, and if you assume the logic of a back-up in every position, who is going to displace him?
Ben Godfrey, Fikayo Tomori, Joe Gomez and Ezri Konsa are all prospects but relatively untried at international level and shorter odds than Coady, who is amazingly the same price as the long-shelved Eric Dier.
Which midfielder should I back to make England’s World Cup squad?
England’s midfield is arguably the hardest part of the squad to break in to. Rice and Phillips have established themselves as first choice, with Jordan Henderson as back-up.
Mason Mount, Phil Foden and Grealish have the attacking midfield roles sewn up and that’s before we mention Jude Bellingham and Saka, two youngsters with big futures.
The market is thus packed with players who have a chance but not much of one – Harvey Barnes, Conor Gallagher, Curtis Jones, James Maddison, Eberechi Eze, et al.
To make England's 2022 World Cup 23 man squad - Midfielders (via Sky Bet)
- 1/20 - Declan Rice, Jude Bellingham, Mason Mount, Phil Foden
- 1/10 - Bukayo Saka
- 1/8 - Kalvin Phillips
- 1/6 - Jack Grealish
- 2/5 - Jordan Henderson
- 5/4 - James Ward-Prowse
- 9/4 - Jesse Lingard
- 3/1 - Harvey Elliott
- 7/2 - Emile Smith-Rowe, Harvey Barnes
- 4/1 - Conor Gallagher, Curtis Jones, Dele Alli
Odds correct at 0930 (04/10/21)
Of those outside the immediate favourites, Arsenal’s Emile Smith Rowe catches the eye at 7/2 given his profile – if he has a big season for the Gunners, he’s one who could break through.
The best price, for me, though, is on a man firmly entrenched in Gareth Southgate’s thoughts already after the way he resurrected his career last season – JESSE LINGARD, at 9/4.
Lingard is in the current squad, only narrowly missed out on the Euros after his sensational loan stint at West Ham, and scored twice on international duty this autumn already, albeit only against Andorra.
Only Kane and Sterling have more international goals and while Lingard’s use as a Manchester United substitute is a concern, he’s still having an impact in that role.
Come January or the summer, he might be on his way again, temporarily or permanently – or he could reclaim a starting spot at Old Trafford, not totally out of the question. Either way, he's firmly in the frame and those odds look too large.
Which forwards should I back to make England’s World Cup squad?
Once we get past the absolute guaranteed selections of Kane and Sterling, it’s interesting to note the next three players up are all Manchester United men.
Will Marcus Rashford, Jadon Sancho and Mason Greenwood attain enough game time – and form – to justify their odds-on prices? Time will tell but at 1/12, 1/10 and 1/2 all look too short to back.
To make England's 2022 World Cup 23 man squad - Forwards (via Sky Bet)
- 1/20 - Raheem Sterling
- 1/16 - Harry Kane
- 1/12 - Marcus Rashford
- 1/10 - Jadon Sancho
- 1/2 - Mason Greenwood
- 10/11 - Dominic Calvert-Lewin
- 7/4 - Ollie Watkins
- 4/1 - Ivan Toney, Patrick Bamford, Tammy Abraham
Odds correct at 0930 (04/10/21)
I prefer to look elsewhere and with a Kane back-up needed, Dominic Calvert-Lewin is perhaps a surprisingly large 10/11 to fill that role, as he did at the Euros.
Of regular Premier League starters, only Cristiano Ronaldo has a better xG/95 minutes figure than Calvert-Lewin so far this term and the Everton man has been consistently delivering the goods for some time now.
If you want an alternative, Ollie Watkins (7/4) was again included in the current get-together but that perhaps owes something to injuries to Rashford and DCL.
Ivan Toney interests at 5/1 but despite a massively impressive couple of seasons with Peterborough and Brentford, he’s going to need to outdo even those fantastic campaigns at Premier League level to get a look-in.
It’d be nice if he did though – I’m sure if Southgate is going to bring on a player for the World Cup final penalty shoot-out, we’d all prefer it to be a man who hardly ever misses from the spot, eh?
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