Chelsea v Liverpool: Tactical preview with three best bets for Premier League clash
Liverpool’s 4-3 victory over Leeds last weekend was absolute carnage, the sort of contest that doesn’t come along very often…except that it might just happen again on Sunday.
Chelsea’s 3-1 defeat of Brighton was a game that could also have ended 4-3, such was the porousness – as ever – of the Chelsea midfield. Frank Lampard is no Marcelo Bielsa, but the way he organises, or rather doesn’t organise, his team’s attacks could lead to yet another 90 minutes of chaos for Jurgen Klopp.
The last time the sides met it ended 5-3 to Liverpool, and we look set for a similar battle. Lampard is yet to learn how to structure his team’s possession without leaving enormous gaps in the middle, sculpting his young team in the image of Lampard the player: freely improvising with careless abandon. It should mean bold attacks, led by the on-the-shoulder movement of Kai Havertz and Timo Werner, followed by Liverpool countering at lightning speed.
Chelsea’s forwards press high, if sporadically, but there is little compression between the lines, meaning as soon as the opposition work around the first wave they are free to attack the wide-open spaces between the midfield and frantically-backpedalling defenders. This is what happened throughout the 2019/20 season, and it happened against Brighton. Graham Potter’s side tore through the middle, creating numerous chances and winning the xG battle 1.44 – 1.27.
We know how ruthless Liverpool can be when given that sort of space on the counter, with their expert pressing likely to harass the Chelsea midfield – isolated and stretched – into conceding possession. That’s exactly what they did repeatedly in the 4-3 victory over Leeds, snapping at Kalvin Phillips until they had four or five bodies running through an empty midfield.
Chelsea might not deliberately make this game stretched, as Bielsa clearly did, but Liverpool’s high line will make it hard for them to resist. One of the key features against Brighton was Werner and Havertz making intelligent runs in behind, with direct passes aiming to get them through on goal. Given Liverpool’s aggressive stance, Chelsea will surely find the gaps they need to unsettle Virgil van Dijk and Joe Gomez with their two new signings.
And so Sunday’s game threatens to be as chaotic as Liverpool’s opener and the 5-3 at Anfield back in July.
That is unless Lampard goes for a particularly defensive formation and system, as he did in several ‘Big Six’ matches last season. Many were surprised by his cautious approach in the European Super Cup 2-2 draw with Liverpool, for example, in which Chelsea sat right off Klopp’s side and waited to counter. Since then, they beat a weakened Liverpool 2-0 in the FA Cup by switching to a 3-4-2-1 formation – and that could do the trick on Sunday.
In this system, the Chelsea wing-backs can get tight to Trent Alexander-Arnold and Andrew Robertson to limit their impact, while maintaining a three-on-three in central defence against the Liverpool forward line. It would also give Lampard the foundation to sit tight and wait for opportunities to play through the centre, with inside forwards Havertz and Mason Mount (who were unusually narrow against Brighton) creating a square in midfield with N’Golo Kante and Jorginho to outnumber their opponents.
It is very hard to predict whether Lampard will go for a 4-3-3 or a 3-4-3, and while he will instruct his players to sit off, rather than press, the Liverpool team, there is no guarantee his players won’t be tempted by the space in behind Klopp’s defence to create an end-to-end contest. In short, we could get another 5-3, or we could get the 2-1 from last September, when Chelsea managed 13 shots to Liverpool’s six.
Either way, the individual battles across the pitch will be largely the same.
Chelsea’s defensive issues look set to continue given neither Ben Chilwell nor Thiago Silva are expected to be deemed fit to start, which means Marcus Alonso facing Mohamed Salah in the game’s biggest mismatch. It will require a resolutely deep line, and accompanying compression with midfield, for Alonso to get the help he needs to stop the Liverpool forward.
In midfield, the visitors’ ability to counter-attack against Chelsea could rest on Naby Keita’s driving runs in possession. He looked sharp against Leeds and was highly effective in the 5-3 back in July, scoring a brilliant opening goal. Jorginho and Kante are repeatedly left vulnerable in the middle as their team-mates roam forward; Keita is the man to take advantage of this, particularly when Roberto Firmino drops deep to link with him.
Questions will be asked of Van Dijk, too, by Werner, who looked very sharp against Brighton. The Liverpool centre-back was unsettled by the sheer volume of Leeds runners in the opener, and it seems likely that Chelsea’s new front line will look to follow Bielsa’s example with some piercing runs on the Dutchman’s blind side. Alexander-Arnold and Robertson will no doubt leave space for Werner, and Christian Pulisic, to hurt them on the break.
Rarely are Premier League ‘Big Six’ clashes so hard to predict; reading Lampard is a difficult task, such is the inconsistency of his tactical blueprints for these types of fixtures. He has been known to show territorial caution, but with so many exciting attacking players arriving in the summer he won’t necessarily be able to control just how much his players break forward - and subsequently leave themselves open to Liverpool swinging things back the other way.
After all, ‘control’ is a hardly a word we associate with Chelsea performances since Lampard’s appointment.
Odds correct at 2000 BST (16/09/20)
Follow Sporting Life on social - find us on Facebook here or tweet @SportingLifeFC
Related football content
Responsible gambling
We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit begambleaware.org.
Further support and information can be found at GamCare and gamblingtherapy.org.
MOST READ FOOTBALL
FOOTBALL TIPS
