Callum Smith versus Saul 'Canelo' Alvarez betting tips

Boxing betting tips: Callum Smith v Saul 'Canelo' Alvarez

3pts Alvarez to beat Smith by decision at 15/8

1pt Golovkin to beat Kamil Szeremeta in rounds 4-6 at 15/8

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Boxing has really made up for lost time at the end of 2020 and we finish the year with an absolute cracker as Britain's Callum Smith heads to Texas to test himself against the brilliant Saul 'Canelo' Alvarez in the early hours of Sunday morning.

In normal circumstances we would be talking about the travelling army of UK fans and media from these shores that would be camped out in America and waxing lyrical about how good a fight this is, but the relatively low-key build-up hasn't dampened the enthusiasm for this intriguing contest which launches DAZN's streaming service in the UK.

Arguably the pound-for-pound number one and unquestionably the most powerful active fighter in the sport, Canelo gets to call all the shots when it comes to his opponents and it tells you everything you need to about him that he has chosen to face the lineal champion as his tour of the divisions stops at super middleweight this weekend.

Regarded as the UK's brightest prospect for some time, Smith delivered on that promise when stopping George Groves in the final of the World Boxing Super Series in Saudi Arabia just over two years ago and has been considered 'the man' at 168lb since.

Why is Smith such a big price?

Unbeaten in 27 outings (19 KOs) with serious power in either hand and very tall for the weight at 6'3", the Liverpudlian has the pedigree and tools to dominate the division for a long time, so why is he a 4/1 underdog?

The simple answer is the man he is facing is very special indeed.

The Mexican superstar's (2/9) list of victims reads like a who's who of boxing from the last decade and his desire to take on all comers has earned him global popularity, as well as the pesos that go with it. Having learnt so much from his sole defeat in 56 starts (two draws) to Floyd Mayweather in 2013, Canelo has done nothing but improve since and has overcome all different styles, shapes and sizes to notch big win after big win.

With the likes of Shane Mosley, Miguel Cotto and Amir Khan already on his CV, a duel for middleweight supremacy with the unbeaten Gennady Golovkin was considered the best fight in boxing in 2017 and 2018, and he came out on top via a draw and a split decision win (although both were hotly-debated). Subsequently he has stepped up to super middleweight to blow away Rocky Fielding in three rounds, returned to 160lb to outpoint serious middleweight rival Danny Jacobs, before going all the way up to light heavyweight to beat the much bigger Sergey Kovalev with a brutal 11th-round knockout.

Is size enough to bridge class gap?

However, this is a serious test for Canelo and one he will need to be at his best to pass. The first head-to-head earlier in the week highlighted how much of a size advantage the visitor possesses, as he towered over his 5'8" opponent by what appeared more than the official seven inches, and he has the skills to make the most of his superior height and reach.

A high-class amateur, Smith does all the fundamentals very well and boasts a sound defence behind his high guard. The fact he was able to out-jab Groves tells you how good he is in that department, while the left hook that sparked the beginning of the end that night is arguably more potent than his very solid straight right hand, although both are serious weapons. Team Smith know first-hand what they are up against as his older brother, Liam, ventured to the same US state for a crack at Canelo four years ago and while he lost his WBO light middleweight title in nine rounds, Callum and coach Joe Gallagher could have gained vital clues about the task ahead.

What's the best route to profit?

As highly as I rate Smith and think this will be a very competitive fight, I just find it hard to see a way he can get the victory. Usually, his power would give him a huge chance of getting a stoppage (6/1), but not only does Canelo have a fantastic defence, he has a chin to match it.

Golovkin is considered one of the hardest punchers in middleweight history and he didn't even get a reaction from the Mexican when he landed his bombs flush on the chin, while 'Krusher' Kovalev couldn't make a dent on the much smaller man either when they met 13 months ago.

Therefore, it would be a major surprise to see him yield to the power of the underdog, who also seems unlikely to get the nod by the judges if it goes the distance. As talented as he is and as deserving as he is of his place at the top of the tree, Canelo has a history of being looked upon favourably by the judges and he has been on the right end of the worst scorecards in recent memory.

After being totally outclassed and barely winning a round against Mayweather, one judge inexplicably gave it as a draw, while most thought he lost a close first encounter with Golovkin, yet Adalaide Byrd somehow scored it 10 rounds to two in favour of the Alvarez.

There are several other examples that could be listed and whether this is a privilege of being boxing's biggest cash cow or not, you sense that the possibility of him dropping a decision if this is remotely close after 12 rounds is very slim.

The good news for Smith is that his last opponent was a similar build and height to Canelo so represented good preparation, but the bad news is it didn't go that well as he had all sorts of trouble with John Ryder in a really tough 12-rounder that he was expected to win comfortably.

Interestingly, the champion struggled to find a home for his jab and the left hook when having to punch down that night, as Ryder used the height difference to his benefit. That highlighted how Smith's seven-and-a-half-inch reach advantage could be a negative at times here, with Canelo's excellent head movement enabling him to quickly turn defence into attack by slipping punches and countering very effectively when Smith is made to miss.

This was the case against their only common opponent, the aforementioned Fielding, whose similarly lengthy torso proved a big target for hurtful hooks as Canelo made his way past his long levers with ease.

Smith will gain confidence from the way in which Jacobs really came into the fight after halfway against Canelo, and by the fact there was nothing in it when Kovalev was flattened in the 11th, but the Mexican just seems to find a way win and can do so again here.

Having spent half of his life as a professional boxer and with 56 contests under his belt, Canelo could be forgiven for being a little shop-worn, but he looks better than ever and this extremely well-rounded version of the 30-year-old is capable of winning many ways. That, as well as the relatively short notice of five weeks Smith received of being told he had the golden ticket for the Canelo sweepstake, tilt the balance in favour of the favourite.

Smith has the power to earn Canelo's respect and a good enough defence to avoid too much punishment, so I think we will see plenty of rounds here and for those who find it hard to back against a fellow Brit, the 6/4 about it going the distance may be their way of securing a profit.

However, the recommendation is for Canelo to win by decision at 15/8 (Sky Bet) in an enthralling and hard-fought contest, with his experience and versatility ultimately proving the difference.

Stroll in the park for Golovkin?

Victory for Canelo could set up a trilogy with Golovkin, who fights Kamil Szeremeta 24 hours earlier in California and needs to look good if people are going to buy into that third encounter.

'Triple G' may be 38 and in decline, but remains a big player at 160lb and is bidding to make a record-breaking 21st successful defence of a middleweight title, in this case the IBF strap he won in a back-and-forth war with Sergiy Derevyanchenko 14 months ago.

A best price of 1/25, it should be a case of how, not if, the Kazakh wins, as for all Szeremeta is unbeaten in 21 fights, he hasn't been anywhere near world class and just six stoppages suggest he doesn't have the pop on his punches to deter the hard-hitting favourite.

Steve Rolls had a similar profile when stopped in four sessions by Golovkin in June 2019 and this could be a case of déjà vu, with the favourite to win in rounds 4-6 at 15/8 looking a decent punting angle into this one-sided encounter.

Published at 2040 GMT on 17/12/20