Mallorca Championships & Viking International tennis tips

Tennis betting tips: Mallorca Championships & Viking International

1pt e.w. Sam Querrey in the Mallorca Championships at 22/1 (BetVictor, Coral, Ladbrokes)

1pt e.w. Jordan Thompson in the Mallorca Championships at 22/1 (William Hill, BoyleSports)

1pt e.w. Lorenzo Sonego in the Viking International at 16/1 (BoyleSports)

0.5pt e.w. Frances Tiafoe in the Viking International at 22/1 (BoyleSports)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Mallorca Championships

• Santa Ponça, Mallorca, Spain (outdoor grass)

This is a new event to the ATP Tour so we’ve no course form to go on but they have held a WTA tournament here in recent years.

It threw up some surprise winners, such as Anastasija Sevastova, who has never been beyond round two at Wimbledon, so hopefully a big price can emerge from the draw this week.

The indications from those women’s tournaments suggest the ball doesn’t stay quite so low which may well encourage some of the grass-phobes a bit.

What I’m not keen on is backing any of the market leaders.

First up, you must remember Wimbledon is now just a week away so do any of the top seeds really want a full week of tennis in Mallorca before heading to London?

Also, history shows niggles in a week like this lead to withdrawals so I’m never keen on short prices at this point in the calendar.

The top three in the market (also the top three seeds) all have wild cards which says much about their form.

Daniil Medvedev and Roberto Bautista Agut both lost in the first round in Halle last week so clearly feel they need a few more matches under their belt before heading to SW19.

However, Medvedev is yet to reach the final of a grasscourt tournament, while RBA last featured in one back in 2014.

As for Thiem, his season continues to be a big struggle. The Austrian has had physical issues to deal with but also mental ones too – he’s been open about the struggles he’s had since his US Open win, both in terms of motivation and ‘bubble’ life on the tour.

He won on the Stuttgart grass in 2016, beating Roger Federer in the process, but it’s hard to see a repeat given his form which has seen him lose his last three matches, all on his favoured clay surface.

I’m also happy to take on another man the bookies rate this week, Ugo Humbert.

The Frenchman found his best form to reach this week’s final in Halle (at time of writing he’s due to face Andrey Rublev in the final) but he now faces a quick turnaround with his first-round match in Mallorca scheduled for Tuesday.

It’s not an easy one either with Miomir Kecmanovic leading their head-to-head record 3-1, including a victory on the grass of Antalya two years ago.

Kecmanovic is tempting in this third quarter at 33/1 but preference is for SAM QUERREY, who has shown plenty of good signs during the short grasscourt swing.

Querrey hit 81 aces in four matches as he made the semi-finals in Stuttgart before facing Humbert first up in Halle. He lost, but a 7-6 final-set defeat was put into some perspective by his opponent’s subsequent run to the final.

Importantly, the American has performed well in this week in previous years, reaching finals in both Eastbourne and Nottingham in the week prior to Wimbledon.

That serve has the potential to flummox most in the draw, including Bautista Agut and Thiem, who are potential quarter- and semi-final opponents respectively.

At 22/1, I’ll side with Querrey.

In the top half, I’ll take one more chance on JORDAN THOMPSON.

Having tried and failed with the Australian in both Stuttgart and Halle, I know some of you will feel I’m like a stuck record, but there’s much to like about his draw this week, while his efforts in both German events don’t look too bad given what has unfolded since.

The 27-year-old lost narrow to Alex de Minaur in Stuttgart and the Aussie was a semi-finalist at Queen’s the following week.

And in Halle, it was Rublev who got the better of the Aussie, winning 6-4 6-4 en route to the final.

The seeds in Thompson’s quarter this time look nowhere near as threatening.

Pablo Carreno Busta and Dusan Lajovic, are a combined 6-27 on grass in their careers which makes them eminently opposable.

Jiri Vesely has a better record on this surface, although the fact that he played on the green stuff in Stuttgart before heading back home to the Czech Republic to play a Challenger on clay hardly inspires confidence for this week.

In short, Thompson’s path to the semis looks a good one and a man who likes the grass under his feet would certainly have a chance against Medvedev in any such semi-final – that’s if the Russian survives a (likely) awkward opener against Lloyd Harris.

He looks a decent each-way shout at 22/1.

Viking International

• Eastbourne, England, UK (outdoor grass)

Eastbourne is another tournament better known for its WTA links but this will be the 10th staging on the men’s event at Devonshire Park.

It’s largely been won by a player with a profile you’d expect – think the big serves of Andy Roddick, Feliciano Lopez and Taylor Fritz, and the serve-volley style of Mischa Zverev.

Novak Djokovic even showed up in 2017 and duly won but there’s no-one of his quality on show this year.

Instead, Gael Monfils is the only top-20 player in the field. The Frenchman was runner-up here in 2017 but he’s gone 2-11 over the past 12 months. Even in a weak-looking top quarter, Monfils can be opposed.

One of three yet-to-be-decided qualifiers may well come through this section but for now I’ll have to focus on other parts of the draw.

In the second quarter, third seed LORENZO SONEGO looks a chunky price at 16/1, particularly given he’s got a first-round bye and will only have to win three matches to reward each-way backers.

The Italian won in this pre-Wimbledon week during the last grasscourt swing – in Antalya in 2019 – where his serve won him plenty of cheap points.

He flopped at Queen’s last week, losing in round one, which perhaps explains why his price is now so big.

However, he was 18/1 last week in a much stronger field so I am happy to chance him at 16s.

It’s not long since he was beating the likes of Dominic Thiem and Andrey Rublev in the Rome Masters and given he’s shown he can play on this surface in the past, Sonego holds decent claims this week.

It tends to play a bit slower here than at Queen’s which should work in his favour – other Italians to have enjoyed these conditions, perhaps surprisingly, over the years include 2019 and 2018 semi-finalist Thomas Fabbiano and Marco Cecchinato, plus 2011 winner Andreas Seppi.

Alexander Bublik is the other seed in the second quarter but he let us down when we backed him last week at Queen’s, losing to wild card Jack Draper.

Queen’s finalist Cameron Norrie in the bottom half but I suspect his efforts in west London will have taken plenty out of him, mentally as much as anything – he won’t have experienced media attention like that before.

With Wimbledon looming I wouldn’t be surprised if he didn’t make the trip to the south coast but even if he does, it’s hard to envisage another full week of tennis from the British number two, who must be eyeing a decent Wimbledon run given his impressive form will see him seeded in SW19.

Favourite Alex de Minaur heads up this section but he looks skinny at 5/1 despite his run to the last four at Queen’s.

He could meet FRANCES TIAFOE in his opening match and it is the American who appeals at more than four times the price.

Tiafoe hasn’t attracted a great deal of attention of late but over the past fortnight he’s put together a decent showreel of grasscourt performances.

He won a Challenger Tour title in Nottingham where he lost serve only four times in five matches and then headed to Queen’s where he reached the quarter-finals before losing to Denis Shapovalov.

In short, Tiafoe is enjoying the best grasscourt run of his career and at 22/1 looks worth a small investment to beat what isn’t a particularly strong field.

Updated at 1455 BST on 20/06/21