Ben Linfoot Value Bet: Royal Ascot day four tips

Recommended Bets: Value Bet, Royal Ascot Day Four

1pt win Ertiyad in 2.30 Ascot at 20/1

1pt e.w Mistiroc in 5.35 Royal Ascot at 33/1

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The Commonwealth Cup has quickly become a firm favourite at Royal Ascot and after unearthing Muhaarar and Quiet Reflection in the first two renewals it says something for the potential of this year’s race that it looks the best line-up yet. 

Heading the 12 runners this time around is the hugely exciting and unbeaten Caravaggio, a son of Scat Daddy trained by Aidan O’Brien who won the Coventry Stakes at this meeting last year.

He followed that up with a Group One cruise in the Phoenix Stakes at the Curragh, justifying odds of 1/8 with the minimum of fuss, and he looked to have trained on nicely with another impressive victory on his seasonal reappearance in the Lacken Stakes at Naas last month.

Unbeaten in five, he looks the real deal and his even-money odds are only as big as they are because of the presence of Clive Cox’s Harry Angel just behind him in the betting at 7/2.

He’s always been held in the highest regard by his excellent handler and he looked in great nick at Ascot on May 3 when chasing home Blue Point, another rival on Friday, while carrying a 4lb penalty.

He’s expected to reverse that form off level weights and he showed he’s improved since his seasonal reappearance with a blistering success in the Sandy Lane Stakes at Haydock last time.

Quiet Reflection won that race last season before winning the Commonwealth Cup and Harry Angel has a good chance of repeating the feat, even with a monster like Caravaggio in opposition.

It’s hard to see past the first three in the betting, as they are well clear of the rest on form, and it’s hard to decide between Caravaggio and Harry Angel as well as both look high-class prospects.

The Coronation Stakes looks more straightforward as Winter looks clear of the rest on the back of her brilliant victories in the 1000 Guineas in England and Ireland. 

Precieuse could be a little underestimated at double-figure prices as she showed a smart turn of foot herself to land the French 1000 Guineas, but that form looks slightly below Winter’s and she does have to prove herself on faster conditions.

Betting opportunities look few and far between on Friday, but the closing Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes is an interesting handicap to have a go at as there looks to be a distinct lack of pace in the contest.

All of the fancied horses are usually held up and very few in the field normally make the running. Even Mark Johnston’s Soldier In Action likes to track the pace, so position could be equally as important as raw ability.

With that in mind the 33/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4) generally available about John Quinn’s MISTIROC could be a price that offers a good bit of each-way value.

His form has taken a leap forward since the visor was applied and a compelling piece of evidence on that score came at this track on Shergar Cup day last August when he made all the running to beat a solid yardstick in Duretto.

He went off the boil for a few runs when stepped up in trip after that, but he’s been very solid since coming back to a mile and a half and he’s looked better than ever on his last two starts this season.

Jason Hart has ridden him on both of those occasions, so he clearly gets on well with him, and if he manages to get him settled either dictating the pace or sat prominently he could be in a great position to strike as they turn for home.

A strong traveller that likes fast ground, he’s going to appreciate the step back up to 1m4f after dropping to 10 furlongs at Chester last time, where he was far from disgraced in third behind hot Wolferton Handicap favourite Khairaat.

He doesn’t have the unexposed profile of those horses at the top of the market, but he’s got experience, he’s tough, he goes on the ground and tactically he could be seen to advantage, so he’s got plenty going for him at a big price.

Finally, William Haggas’ ERTIYAD could be worth chancing at 20/1 (General) in the opening Albany Stakes.

Haggas’ horses have been running well all week and the closest he’s come to victory was with another juvenile, Headway, a horse that was beaten a head by Rajasinghe in the Coventry Stakes at 33/1.

Ertiyad looks similarly underestimated after running a really promising race here at Ascot on debut, splitting Mrs Gallagher and Out Of The Flames in a thrilling finish.

That was over five furlongs and Ertiyad would’ve won in another stride, while Out Of The Flames doesn’t look a bad filly over five furlongs judging by her third in the Queen Mary on Wednesday.

Ertiyad followed up her Ascot performance with a victory at Haydock on much softer ground next time out, and that form is looking okay, too, as the second, Maybride, ran an eye-catching race in 10th also in the Queen Mary.

Back on a fast surface Ertiyad looks likely to improve significantly on her previous form and the six furlongs at Ascot also looks perfect for her judging by her debut at the track.

She has plenty to find with the form pick Alpha Centauri, but there’s plenty more to come from the Haggas filly and at 20/1 it’s worth a small bet that everything comes together for her on Friday.

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Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +389.99pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current). 

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Posted at 1700 BST on 22/06/17.