Tips for Glorious Goodwood using sectional timing data from Timeform
Graeme North looks ahead to day five of the Qatar Goodwood Festival and has a trio of tips based on what he's learnt from sectional and overall times.
SATURDAY SELECTIONS
- Back Spirit Of Bermuda in the 13.20 at 9/2
- Back Royal Scimitar in the 13.55 at 10/1
- Back Turntable in the 16.45 at 8/1
With a further 5mm of rain overnight on Thursday and into Friday morning, and scattered showers in the forecast for the Friday afternoon and Saturday, the ground seems likely to continue to be on the slow side for what is the final day of the 2021 Qatar Goodwood Festival.
Several races look no-go areas for punting purposes, but three horses catch the eye starting with SPIRIT OF BERMUDA in the opener at 13.20. She might look to be taking on a very tough opponent in the Britannia Handicap third Quintillus, not least since several horses have come out of that strongly-run race on firm ground and won handicaps since, but the drop back to seven furlongs, easy ground for the first time and a suspect attitude make him opposable at the general 7/2.
The same can’t be said of Spirit Of Bermuda, however. The winner of her last two races, including a Newmarket success for which she looks to have got off lightly with a 2lb rise, Spirit Of Bermuda is at least his equal on the clock, can boast a win over the course at this meeting last season and showed a very game attitude last time. Four runners from that race since have combined for two wins and a chunk of improvement, so Spirit Of Bermuda looks a solid option at 9/2.
Three-year-olds don’t have a great record on the face of things in the Stewards’ Cup consolation, the Stewards’ Sprint at 13.55, with only one winner (Scorching Heat in 2017) from near-enough twenty runners in that period, but closer inspection reveals that nearly all those three-year-olds that didn’t fare so well were drawn very high in a period when low draws have held sway.
The younger generation looks to have a much stronger hand than usual this year and it’s no surprise to see last-time-out York winner First Folio heading the market. That ready win (over Newmarket July Festival winner Blackrod) came on the back of an eye-catching Newmarket run where he surged home having ended up poorly placed, but preference is for another three-year-old drawn low, ROYAL SCIMITAR, whose last effort was franked when Whenthedealinsdone won the five-furlong sprint here on Thursday.
Like Whenthedealinsdone, Royal Scimitar was drawn on the wrong side behind Blackrod at Newmarket but emerged the better of the pair by two and a half lengths on his first try sprinting after winning on his debut at York last year. A credible allowance for the time disadvantage of being the first home on the wrong side - around 10lb – puts Royal Scimitar right at the top of the ratings and Clive Cox’s charge, who was smart enough to trade even money in-running in the Acomb Stakes at York last year, looks the one to concentrate on now he’s given another go at what looks his ideal trip.
In contrast to the Stewards’ Sprint, the three-year-olds have a good record in the Cup itself at 15.40, with three wins since 2011 and all coming from stalls four or lower. However, no three-year-old has made the cut this year and the race looks wide open.
Fresh is the market leader at the time of writing, but his middle draw might prove a hindrance rather than a help and quite whether he can reproduce his best form away from Ascot or the all-weather I’m not too certain.
There’s nothing between Albaflora and Believe In Love on times in the Qatar Lillie Langtry Stakes at 15.05 but both look to have their work cut out to overcome Wonderful Tonight. She had the race-fit Albaflora six lengths behind her when making a successful reappearance in the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot last time, and though Albaflora might find a bit of improvement for the longer trip and being reunited with Rossa Ryan, it’s difficult to see the Champions Fillies Mares winner Wonderful Tonight getting overturned, not least as she showed herself fully effective at this sort of trip when winning the Group One Prix de Royallieu at Longchamp last autumn.
An 18-runner apprentice handicap run as the last race of the meeting (16.45) might not appeal as an ideal betting medium but there are good grounds for thinking TURNTABLE will go very close.
Chris Wall’s five-year-old has already won once already this season, at Newmarket in May when running on strongly from the rear in a well-run race over a mile, but he’s found himself with too much to do in both his races since. In those races he ran the fastest last three furlongs on each occasion, and by some margin too behind Alabama Boy at Newmarket in June, form which looks very good in the context of this race.
He’s been tried beyond a mile only once, at Epsom on his reappearance back in 2019, but he looks ready for the small step up in trip again now and the forecast very strong pace as predicted by Timeform’s exclusive early position figures should play right into his hands.
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