Preakness Stakes preview and tips: Rombauer fancied to go well at Pimlico

While we should be looking forward to a rematch between those contenders – or at least some of them – this year’s renewal has something of a cloud hanging over it.

Firstly, none of the trio involved in that close finish return to tackle the Derby winner, Medina Spirit. Then came the news earlier this week that the Bob Baffert-trained victor had tested positive for a banned substance after the race. Preakness officials have stated he is allowed to run, but no doubt under a fair degree of scrutiny. However, that is a debate for another time and could yet take months to resolve, while the focus is on the here and now.

With only the Derby sixth and seventh returning for a crack at Medina Spirit, a field of ten are expected to go to post in a race that lacks depth on paper. Concert Tour – also trained by Baffert – is the only horse in the field to match the Derby winner’s Timeform rating of 121. On the figures, their form stands out from the rest, though it’s hardly an insurmountable standard.

Never out of the first two from six starts, Medina Spirit has shown a likeable, tenacious attitude on the track. In the Derby, he was able to set his own fractions in front before gamely fending off the challengers in the straight to win by half a length, giving his trainer a record-breaking seventh success in the race. His only defeats have come at the hands of the one-time Kentucky Derby favourite Life Is Good (currently side-lined with injury) and Rock Your World, who was sent off second favourite at Churchill Downs, though that one never got involved after being badly hampered at the start. Whilst his performance is the lowest achieved by a Kentucky Derby winner this century on Timeform ratings, it’s worth noting that most of Baffert’s Derby winners to line up in the Preakness were successful in doubling up.

Concert Tour was amongst the Kentucky Derby favourites after a convincing success in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn, before surrendering his unbeaten record in the Arkansas Derby back there last time. In mitigation, he did help force some quick fractions before weakening into third behind Super Stock and Caddo River. Concert Tour skipped the Derby, so has the element of freshness, and could well bounce back to form.

One that has proven consistent this season is the Kentucky Derby sixth, Midnight Bourbon. A bad start and some early trouble put paid to any chance of being up with the lead, though he stuck on quite well under the circumstances, ending up beaten eight and a quarter lengths. He could well give Medina Spirit something to think about on the front end if forcing tactics are successfully deployed this time. Midnight Bourbon’s two runs prior to Churchill Downs tie in with the second and third from the Derby, as he was placed behind both Mandaloun and Hot Rod Charlie, who ran out winners of the Risen Star Stakes and Louisiana Derby respectively. His trainer Steve Asmussen is no stranger to success in this race having won it twice, with Curlin in 2007 and Rachel Alexandra in 2009.

With only three starts to his name (all at Aqueduct), Chad Brown’s Crowded Trade is the least exposed in the field. He won a maiden special weight on debut in January before being placed in the Gotham and Wood Memorial on his next two starts. Three horses from the latter race went on to contest the Kentucky Derby but all finished out with the washing.

Sticking with the Wood Memorial/Chad Brown theme, Risk Taking finished down the field in that race and takes his place in this having been scratched from the Grade 3 Peter Pan at Belmont last weekend. It would be a surprise if he proves up to the task here, whilst Breeders’ Cup Juvenile third Keepmeinmind hasn’t kicked on this season after signing off his juvenile campaign by winning the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs.

ROMBAUER is a steadily progressive colt on TimeformUS speed figures. He’s yet to win on dirt – his successes coming on turf and synthetic – but has been placed twice in graded events on the surface, including last time out in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. He proved no threat in the end but wasn’t disgraced behind Kentucky Derby fourth-place finisher Essential Quality. A repeat of that effort gives him a shout and he’ll benefit from not having taken in the Kentucky Derby. He also gets the services of Flavien Prat in the saddle for the first time, a jockey who is one of the best in the US right now.

In conclusion, Medina Spirit and Concert Tour rightfully head the betting as Bob Baffert attempts to break the record for most wins as a trainer in the Preakness, but there is little value in either. Medina Spirit may not get the opportunity to dictate quite so comfortably this time, which could lead to some of the closers being able to pick up the pieces, and another step forward from the versatile Rombauer is by no means out of the question. He has some relatively strong pieces of form to his name and rates a sporting each-way shot.

Recommendation: Rombauer each-way at 14/1