Lydia Hislop's Road to Cheltenham: Tuesday selections

Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

This is a much-depleted race compared with the possibilities it held at the five-day stage. Since then, both Moon Racer and Neon Wolf have defected to alternatives and Movewiththetimes has been counted out with a setback. That leaves a field of 14 – a Supreme size that we’re perhaps going to have to get used to.

Melon clings on to favouritism despite not getting much love at various preview evenings. Doubts about his inexperience over hurdles are tempered by having fewer opponents to negotiate and information from Willie Mullins’ yard that the horse has contested “at least two” schooling races in Ireland.

That doesn’t explain away his form, however, which doesn’t amount to much on a collateral or time-based level. Yet his trainer, who boasts firepower in this division of unparalleled breadth (and perhaps also depth), has indicated that choosing which of his four entries to partner was a no-brainer for Ruby Walsh. Some yak you have to weigh in the balance.

Chief of stable-companions appears to be Bunk Off Early, who hared through the race too keenly for his own good when second to Neptune favourite Bacardys last time out. This drop in trip must be a plus but he’s still going to need to calm down for Paul Townend. The drying ground greatly helps but Melon will like it, too.

Were they not the less considered stable-companions, you wouldn’t dismiss either Crack Mome or Cliaos Emery. The former found only bright prospect and Festival ducker Any Second Now too good last time, having travelled strongly but the ground is a worry. The latter wears a first-time hood and the experience of being beaten by Mick Jazz last time won’t have been lost on him. I expect him to outrun his price, especially on this ground.

Ballyandy has already achieved form that would at least guarantee him getting in the frame of most Supremes – and this no longer appears (at this stage – don’t condemn a race before it’s been run!) a deep renewal. As a winner of the Festival Bumper last year, he handles the track and has since garnered plenty of experience. He jumped well under pressure last time and would thrive in a fast-run race.

River Wylde holds Elgin on their Kempton encounter when he showed some greenness but although a sample size of one is far from conclusive, he did flop on his sole start here. I wonder whether flatter tracks suit better, but he's a player.

Alan King has said quick ground would be of concern for heavy-topped Elgin, who’s had some knee problems in the past, and argued he might be better right-handed.

Glaring would probably have finished second to him at Kempton in December bar for blundering and skidding on landing two out. By contrast, drying ground will suit him and a break of 78 days (provided there hasn’t been a problem) might be an advantage. He has extensive Flat experience and may well do better than his odds imply, also.

River Wylde’s stablemate Beyond Concern is surely going to get outpaced over two miles on a sound surface here, even if he does settle. High Bridge is improving but the time of his latest Newbury win doesn’t stand up against Ballyandy’s and his amateur rider can’t claim his 7lb allowance.

Pingshou will enjoy a return to two miles and a sound surface but needs to find more. Drying ground is a positive for Capital Force also, but his form needs to take a massive leap forward.

Magnor Cartor doesn’t look good enough, even had he not committed a chance-ending error on his last visit here and Labaik may not consent to take part, having refused to race four times. He all but did so again last time out.

Selection:

Back Ballyandy at 7/2 best price guaranteed

Money back up to £20 if you back a loser with Sky Bet on this race!

Racing Post Arkle Chase

It’s hard to envisage Altior getting beaten here, barring accidents. The worst you can say of him is that he occasionally gives his fences too much air but he’s also capable of flying them, as he did at the cross-fence at Newbury last time. He beat three far more experienced chasers that day and although each one of them surely did not give of their best, they were trounced.

That Newbury display convinced me that he’s tactically impervious – that flat spot he used to hit prior to powering home as a top-class novice no longer appears to be an issue. Nico de Boinville will be able to place him wherever he wants.

Charbel will be ridden positively as ever but is held by Altior on two counts of direct form and arrives here having been coughing since his last run. Some Plan may also be more prominent than last time and to my mind might have beaten Royal Caviar even if that horse had kept his feet last time out. He's a place player and therefore overpriced but his tactics could hurt him.

We’re two points down in this race already and it did cross my mind to retire hurt but I do like the each-way prospects of Forest Bihan, who’ll be kept away from any early scrimmaging and was much the best horse at Doncaster against Cloudy Dream (who should also run well) and A Hare Breath. He does need to keep the blunders at bay, mind.

Selections:

Top Notch: advised 30/11/16 at 25/1 each way [NR]

Yorkhill: advised 21/12/16 at 7/1 win only [NR]

Forest Bihan: back now each-way at 25/1 best price guaranteed

Stan James Champion Hurdle

Drying ground has seen quick-jumping Buveur D’Air drift in recent days and certainly enhances the chance of stablemates Brain Power and dual runner-up My Tent Or Yours, plus this column’s long-term long-shot Sceau Royal, who’s still available at the 33/1 so shrewdly taken last November.

His outside case solely rests on his slick jumping and strong travelling being far more effective on a sound surface and Alan King’s stable being in better form now than this time last year when he flopped in the Triumph. There also remains the possibility that he’s just not finishing off his races these days. We know he handles Cheltenham though, but his form needs improvement.

Buveur D’Air was probably a bit too far off the pace behind Altior and Min in last year’s Supreme – although it surely didn’t cost him an improved finishing position – but that could partly have been a function of the quick-ish ground. Nicky Henderson, for whom victory in this race would make him the most successful trainer in its history, is convinced he’s a better horse with cut.

You can argue stablemate Brain Power’s inferior runs on left-handed tracks are purely due to circumstance – racecourse debut, hampered at Aintree and first time out this season in the Greatwood. His handicap form withstands scrutiny in this year’s contest and his run style looks ideal.

My Tent Or Yours has produced some of his best performances in this race when second to Annie Power after almost two years off in 2016 and narrowly to Jezki in 2014. Although he has found some improvement with each start this year, he’s operating at almost a stone below his peak at the age of ten. He will be able to track, rather than force, the pace here however.

Front-running duties will fall to The New One or Petit Mouchoir, the vibes being that Bryan Cooper will be happy to take a lead on the latter. This grey, stabled with Henry de Bromhead since Gigginstown removed their horses from Willie Mullins’ yard, has improved this season for aggressive tactics but must prove he can translate that form to undulating tracks.

Mullins believes that factor could enable last year’s Triumph third Footpad – a disappointing Champion Hurdle mount for Ruby Walsh compared with his riches of recent years – to reverse their Leopardstown placings but he was grossly flattered that day, picking up the pieces late after the winner’s hard yards in front.

It’s anticipated that strong-staying The New One will finally receive a forcing ride in this race at the fourth attempt but you can’t help but feel his moment has passed. His habit of adjusting right at his hurdles costs him momentum and provides a hazard for those challenging on his outer.

Yanworth will surely be better suited by how this race unfolds than the sharp-track assignments he proved equal to at Kempton and Wincanton. First-time cheekpieces were applied for his latter success, to help sharpen up jumping that even trainer Alan King admits is like that of a chaser. He’s the right favourite, though, and has proved he can battle this term – not something of which you’d have been certain this time last year.

On their Christmas and Kingwell Hurdles clashes, Yanworth holds Ch’Tibello, even if the latter is a tad overpriced if the recent tweaking with his breathing helps.

After much agonising, Moon Racer runs here rather than in a much-depleted Supreme on the basis he’s eight years of age already. He’s palpably in good heart at home to underpin such a bold decision but lacks experience of hurdling and his direct form – even more than his collaterally achieved official rating – says his odds don’t reflect the huge improvement he must find.

It’s interesting that circumspect trainer Malcolm Jefferson runs Cyrus Darius, whose progress over hurdles as a novice two seasons ago peaked with a Grade Two win at Aintree on a sound surface. I expect him to out-run his odds of 40/1.

But 2015 County Hurdle winner Wicklow Brave, despite having won a poor edition of the Group One Irish St Leger since we last saw him over hurdles, looks up against it.

Selections:

Sceau Royal: already advised 30/11/16 at 33/1 each way

Yorkhill: saver advised 09/02/17 at 3/1 NRNB [NR]

Limini: saver advised 03/03/17 at 13/2 NRNB [NR]

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OLBG David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle

This should be the most competitive edition of this race yet, if all or most of the key players run to form. There has usually been one brilliant mare lining up almost since its institution – such as six-time winner Quevega and Annie Power, who infamously fell when leading at the last two years ago – but this time there are at least three, if not four, very smart mares on show.

Yet sub-plots still risk overshadowing the main act. Limini, earmarked as Willie Mullins' leading contender for this race all season, was late returning to the track and then ran so well when she did that the Champion Hurdle was mooted for a nine-day interregnum – albeit owner Rich Ricci was publicly cool on the idea three days after Mullins set the hare running.

Titleholder Vroum Vroum Mag was the super-sub who would supposedly slot in wherever she could win at the Festival but now tackles the least ambitious of her six original engagements (over hurdles and fences) as the yard’s second string given Ruby Walsh rides Limini.

Paul Townend’s mount was given antibiotics for a cold she was “brewing” after gamely underperforming in victory at Doncaster in January and at the time of writing still holds three entries including the Stayers’ Hurdle. Her presence here suggests Mullins was not entirely confident he could win this prize with Limini alone and that neither mare was deemed to have a realistic Champion Hurdle shout.

A further sub-plot emerged at declaration time when a first-time tongue-tie was added to Apple’s Jade. That could be a negative: there might have been more to her Punchestown defeat by Limini than receiving the less optimal ride and returning from a break, which her form patterns suggest will prompt in an improved effort next time out. Or you could read the first-time aid as an extra edge to help on the big day.

There was only a short-head between them when she beat Vroum Vroum Mag at Fairyhouse in December, when the latter was not as well positioned. All of this suggests all three mares are much of a muchness, with Limini arguably holding marginally the upper hand (if you believe one form-line) and definitely the best last-time performance going into this race.

But best odds of 13/8 tell you that and if you can dismiss the doubts about Apple’s Jade then 4/1 with a firm offering ¼ odds a place is a safe(-ish) each-way play with a material chance of victory.

Jer’s Girl is the fourth potential player but you’re relying on her to improve for a sounder surface and a step back up in trip, like she did when winning two Grade Ones at Fairyhouse and Punchestown last spring. This term’s best effort – her second in the Morgiana – relies on a positive reading of winner Nichols Canyon and the rest of his season doesn’t underpin that view. Even if you think it’s reliable, Jer’s Girl still needs to improve on it.

The market says progressive Lifeboat Mona is the best of the home guard, provided she handles faster ground. But her Sandown form, in which she beat the source of Vroum Vroum Mag’s Doncaster fright, Midnight Jazz, at level weights and Briery Queen, who was conceding 4lb and therefore the best horse at the weights, suggests the last-named mare is way overpriced at 50/1. This still-improving mare definitely handles quicker ground.

You can fashion a case for The Organist running well, if you throw out this term’s chase form on the basis she didn’t take to fences and concentrate on her progressive hurdles profile that would probably have culminated in victory on the New Course here last April had she not fallen at the last.

Rock On The Moor was 66/1 when she finished second in this race last year. She too hasn’t taken to fences and her latest effort says both Limini and Apple’s Jade soundly hold her but this track and her likely tactics might mean she nicks a place again if the principals get more involved in a battle.

We may not yet have seen the best from novice Colin’s Sister and although her best form is hitherto on more testing ground, that might be a coincidence. Hidden Identity saves her best for this race but given she’s now 11 years of age and faces a deeper edition, that’s an academic observation.

Selections:

Back Apple’s Jade each-way at 4/1 or better with ¼ odds place terms (bpg)

JT McNamara National Hunt Chase

This column’s ante-post selection Arpege D’Alene did his prospects no harm at all when only fourth behind Bigbadjohn and Flintham in the Grade Two Reynoldstown Chase at Ascot last time out.

He clearly didn’t handle the right-hand track but still tried to work his way into the race at the second last. Those left-handed adjustments, at a course that’s ruthless in exposing such a trait, just kept knocking him back, however.

He’s proven at Cheltenham and ran well against more experienced rivals here in January – all valuable experience for a tough nuts’ race such as this. He’ll also enjoy the large field. Paul Nicholls’ poor record in this race and the fact the Scottish Grand National has been mentioned as a secondary target are minor concerns but taken into account by odds of 25/1.

Edwulf brings the best form to the table following his latest Naas handicap success and he’ll clearly be dangerous if crack amateur Derek O’Connor can get him into an early rhythm but his propensity for errors is off-putting.

The Henderson stable’s enthusiasm for Beware The Bear has been notable and he is progressive, if a touch lacking in chase experience. A first-time tongue-tie and cheekpieces being reapplied are eye-catching for Champers On Ice. The latter aid helped to induce a better effort from him when third in last year’s Albert Bartlett but he is going to have to jump better.

Mercurial Munster National winner and 2014 Triumph victor Tiger Roll could be dangerous under Lisa O'Neill, if in the mood.

Selection:

Arpege D’Alene: already advised 15/12/16 at 25/1 each way

The other races

I’m going to take a chance on Burtons Well handling the ground in the Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap Chase. He is worth far more than the literal form of his fourth to Royal Vacation here on the New Course in January, having pressed on too soon.

I’d be keen on Singlefarmpayment in the Ultima Handcap Chase were it not for the fear that he could bubble over in the preliminaries and not run his race.

Selection:

Back Burtons Well each way at 20/1 best price guaranteed

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