Today's tips: Racing preview and best bets
Our star daily duo of Rory Delargy and David Massey have had a 10/1 winner already today and have one still to come at Kempton this evening.
Racing betting tips: Monday April 22
0.5pts e.w. Ballinsker in 2.42 Ffos Las at 10/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3) - no lower
1pt win Stans The Man in 3.12 Ffos Las at 10/1 (General) - min 8/1
0.5pts e.w. Galata Bridge in 7.00 Kempton at 20/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4) - min 16/1
2.42 Ffos Las
The weather in West Wales has been pretty dry over recent days and very little rain is forecast for Monday, making a couple of horses of interest on ground likely to ride no worse than yielding. That will suit BALLINSKER in this handicap chase, and the Evan Williams-trained gelding is better than poor recent form figures indicate.
A son of Court Cave, whose offspring tend to struggle in the mud, he is excused a poor run at Plumpton last time, with that run coming off a lay-off, on ground too soft and over a trip he doesn’t really stay. A six-time winner on good or yielding ground, Ballinsker is essentially a spring horse and his form on such ground in the last few months of the season reads 1414114413, as opposed to seven runs on soft or deeper ground which have seen him fail to make the placings even once.
A winner on good-to-soft over this trip at Chepstow in February last year, he followed up over a bare 3m there on his next start, but now finds himself 10lb lower than for the first of those wins. That run at Plumpton should have set him up nicely and he is expected to bounce back to form with conditions suitable for the first time in a while.
3.12 Ffos Las
Another horse I fancy bouncing back to form after a couple of poor efforts is the useful STANS THE MAN who has some excellent for in novice races last season, and can be forgiven a patchy record this year, having needed a confidence booster last time after bleeding on his chase debut at Warwick in September. He’s been given a break since, and it looks notable that Ella Pickard is bringing him back in a race he finished second in a year ago.
The form of the corresponding event 12 months ago has worked out well with six of Stans The Man’s opponents running since and winning eight times between them. Prior to that he had finished ninth in a red-hot running of the EBF Final at Sandown won by subsequent Grade 1 winner Crambo and made up of the winners of 19 subsequent races. On his previous start, Stans The Man had beaten Our Champ at level weights in a maiden hurdle at Fontwell, and that horse was a close third at Cheltenham last week off a mark of 130 having won three times earlier in the campaign.
In short, Stans The Man looks a little delicate, but his collateral form from last season makes him look very fairly handicapped off a mark of 112, the same as he was a year ago, and the return of spring could be just the thing he needs to flourish again.
7.00 Kempton
This looks a very open handicap, but at the morning prices a couple jump out as us as overpriced. GALATA BRIDGE hasn’t perhaps hit the heights over hurdles that his Flat mark would entitle him to (rated in the 90s on the Flat at his peak) but he’s still useful when he gets his conditions and Kempton’s sharp two miles on good ground ought to suit him well.
Only 2lb higher than when running out a ready winner at Uttoxeter last spring, he was last seen trying 2m4f at Worcester a couple of times last summer but not improving for the step up in trip, and this speed test should be more in his wheelhouse. He’s not been seen since then but he’s hit the first four on every occasion he’s returned after a 100+day break, so that shouldn’t be a problem. The yard continue in sparkling form, with three of their last five winners, and 20/1 just looks wrong.
Amelia’s Dance doesn’t win enough to be totally confident about, but she’s hit the frame on all her three starts at Kempton, is generally very consistent, and will be fine on the ground, so from an each-way perspective she makes plenty of appeal at 16/1 and bigger too.
Posted at 0948 BST on 22/04/24
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