Pedigree Pointers: Cassie Tully on the importance of the first season for sires

The first-season-sires are a subject that control a phenomenal amount of interest year on year. New genes, fresh meat, limitless potential and possibilities; how could they not?

But a stallion can either be condemned or propelled to a podium of power depending on how his first juveniles perform relative to expectations of them.

And traditionally, the race to become leading first-season-sire by number of individual winners is the method of appraisal. While this year’s predictions appear to be a hot topic at the moment, one has to wonder if siring the most winners in their first year really means all that?

Taking a look at the leading first-season-sires of the past 15 years, some are forces within the active stallion ranks today while others have been moved along after not living up to their promising beginning. And importantly, those that are forces today, did all produce stakes winners within their first juvenile crop. So is that the indicator we should be obsessing over instead?

If only it were that easy.

The figure of 30 first-crop winners appears to be a golden standard which usually ensures leading-sire-status. Iffraaj previously held the record of 38 for a decade; that is until last year when Mehmas blew everyone out of the water with 56 individual winners. 2011 and 2015 both had more than one sire produce over 30 winners whom are also included in the table below.

Taking some notable examples and beginning with 2007. This was the year in which Captain Rio impressed and held top honours with 32 winners including Group Three winner Philario, from just a €5,000 fee. The Group Two winning juvenile (same as Mehmas) also shuttled to New Zealand and had three Group One winners down under. Here, however, his best performers remained at Group Three level.

Now, the interesting part is who was lurking behind Captain Rio in terms of winners. 2007 was also the year that runners of Oasis Dream and Acclamation hit the track. Oasis Dream ‘only’ had 22 winners that year, but six of them were stakes winners, four of whom won at Group Three level. While Acclamation (sire of new record breaker Mehmas), produced 28 winners that year including Group One Middle Park stakes winner Dark Angel.

Kheleyf led the way with 31 winners including Group Three winner Percolater in 2008 while Exceed and Excel was behind with eight fewer winners and a Group Two winner Infamous Angel. Kheleyf did go on to sire seven Group winners, but Exceed and Excel is of course the sire of 89. 14 at Group One level.

In some cases, the tone really is set at how the sire means to go on. 2009 was when the leading freshman sire of winners was Dubawi. 34 winners including two at Group Two level that first year and we don’t need any reminders of his feats since. But behind him that same year were two others who also went on to greater things. At 24 winners, two at Group Three level was Shamardal. And at 25 winners, one at Group Three level was Footstepsinthesand.

Zebedee, the leading-first-season-sire in 2014, never managed to go on and produce a winner at the highest level either. But a certain pair with fewer winners than Zebedee that year, now both stand for a fee over €100,000. That duo are Siyouni and Lope De Vega (first crop G1 winner Belardo).

One more notable example is 2016. Sir Prancealot who now resides in California and did produce American Oaks winner Lady Prancealot, led the freshmen that year with 32 winners and a pretty impressive 42% strike rate. Behind him on 18 winners however, was Frankel.

If one was to lean more towards percentage of winners over number of winners, then compare Canford Cliffs (five-time Group One and Classic winner) to Zoffany (Group One winning juvenile) in 2015.

Canford Cliffs had 35 winners (45% of his runners) to Zoffany’s 32 (37%).

Although being leading sire with 35 winners including the Group Two winner Painted Cliffs, as well as having a huge strike rate that year, Canford Cliffs never lived up to the great expectations upon him.

He did not sire another horse to win at Group Two level or higher in the northern hemisphere and soon relocated to South Africa. Zoffany, on the other hand, although prematurely passing away last week, sired 20 Group winners including three at the highest level.

We are of course aware that some sires have achieved more on the track and would be expected to outperform others in the long-term (eg. Captain Rio versus Oasis Dream). But Canford Cliffs proved that that is not always the case either.

Siring the highest number or percentage of winners can of course give indications to commercial precocity, for which there is a market. But is quantity alone what makes a great sire? Definitely not.

Galileo himself had 13 winners from 52 runners (25%) including a single Listed winner in his first crop of juvenile runners. Could we have predicted from those stats that he would go on to sire 22 Group One winning two-year-olds and be one of the leading sources of juvenile stakes winners each year?

A phenomenal beginning does not mean a stallion is a super-sire (think Henrythenavigator) and, equally, a lacklustre first crop of runners does not mean a stallion is a dud.

Ultimately, each stallion is an individual and as the old saying goes, 'if you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree then it will live its whole life believing it is stupid'.