Free golf betting tips: Final-round preview of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Golf betting tips: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, final round

3pts win Patrick Cantlay at 7/2

1pt e.w. Russell Knox at 12/1 (1/4 1,2,3)

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

We’re through three rounds of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and for the second week running I have the pleasure of assessing the chances of a Jordan Spieth victory as he heads into Sunday with the 54-hole lead.

Last week Spieth found himself in this position after shooting a ‘lights out’ 61 on Saturday, something which it is fair to say came out of the blue based on the fact his season prior to that had seen him miss four out of seven cuts and post nothing better than 38th placed finish.

In the end last Sunday, as I speculated in this column, the Texan struggled to keep the momentum going from Saturday as he closed with a lacklustre 72 for a share of fourth.

With the undoubted confidence gained from that high finish, though, his best on tour since the 2019 PGA Championship, there were plenty going into this week who felt Spieth could build on that performance and return to the winners' circle in an event he tasted victory in 2017 and sets up perfectly for his game. Those who took the 25/1 at the start of the week will now be delighted to see him sitting on a 13-under total and with a two-shot lead over the chasing pack.

So what are we to make of the three-time major champion's chances this time around?

Similarly to last week, Spieth has been missing fairways for fun. However, all his Strokes Gained long game stats are strong for the two measured rounds on Pebble Beach so far, with his worst ranking being 19th for strokes-gained-off-the-tee. Having said this, though, his approach play was certainly more suspect on Saturday and only a superb second shot into the par-four 16th, which found the bottom of the cup for an eagle two, masked what was otherwise a pretty scrappy back nine.

To sum up there is no doubt that Spieth is making progress and a return to winning ways could come sooner rather than later, but I'm still not convinced that his game is where it needs to be yet to get the job done. I like his chances more this week than I did last, but remain in absolutely no rush to back him at 15/8.

Looking at the chasing pack and with five players sharing second place on 11-under and, two shots back, the one who sticks out is PATRICK CANTLAY.

I was very keen on Cantlay coming into the week and his opening-day, course-record-tying 62 at Pebble Beach gave great cause for optimism.

After a scrappy day at Spyglass on Friday, the Californian’s long game was back to its best at Pebble on Saturday, and he lead the field from tee to green. However, whereas Thursday’s 62 saw him gain over three and a half shots with the putter, Saturday saw the flatstick let him down badly to the extent that only five players in the field ranked worse than him in that department.

Cantlay has shown in his career to date that he is at his best on a Sunday when starting in the chasing pack and he did this column a favour when landing the Zozo Championship last October when starting three back, while he nearly pulled off the spectacular with his closing 61 at the American Express a few weeks ago.

Granted, he struggled when most recently sharing the lead going into Sunday at the Shriners, but this looks right in his wheelhouse and if he can just iron out Saturday’s issues on the greens to at least perform averagely well with the putter, he will take all the beating.

Of the remainder sitting on 11-under, Daniel Berger is an obvious threat, but you have to wonder how he will recover from the mess he made of the 18th on Saturday, which lead to a double bogey seven, while the same applies to one-time tour winner Nate Lashley, who having for 16 holes had one of those days where everything he looked at went in, suddenly looked very edgy over his closing two.

Were Tom Hoge to bag the trophy he certainly wouldn’t be the first shock winner here over recent years. However, unlike the recent unheralded champions he remains a maiden on tour and he is hard to fancy.

With the layers paying to three each-way places, I am keen to add one more alongside Cantlay and the one on the 11-under number who makes plenty of appeal is RUSSELL KNOX.

The two-time PGA tour winner has been working with a new coach since lockdown last year and the signs have certainly been there of late that the hard work is paying dividends, with four top-20 finishes in the bag already this season.

At his best the Scot is known as a laser iron player and that part of his game has really been on song this week as he leads the field in old fashioned GIR, and sits sixth in strokes-gained-approach-to-the-green at Pebble Beach.

Knox shot a bogey-free 69 around Pebble on Saturday, which was no mean feat in the blustery conditions, and only dropped one shot there in his 66 on Thursday, so he his clearly dialled in this week. Add that to the fact he has the course experience and previous strong finishes here that we tend to see with the winners of this event and he ticks a lot of boxes as a general 12/1 chance.

In an event that has seen winners come from three and six back over the past five years, you certainly can’t rule out those starting on 10-under, including course specialist Jason Day or even those on nine-under. However, with the forecast showing breezy conditions around again to probably prevent a really low number, I'm happy to stick with my two from higher up the board, Cantlay and Knox, to bring home the spoils between them.

Published at 0950 GMT on 14/02/21