Ready To Venture can come good for William Haggas and Tom Marquand
Ready To Venture can come good for William Haggas and Tom Marquand

Best value bets: Tip for Newmarket and York on Friday September 24



Value Bet tips: Friday, September 24

1pt win Ready To Venture in 1.50 Newmarket at 20/1 (bet365)

1pt win La Rav in 2.40 York at 16/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook


There’s nothing quite like competitive handicaps – ideally with lots of runners – when it comes to levelling the playing field and helping to find an attractive wager at longer odds, and I’ll be getting stuck into York’s televised action on Friday.

That’s not to say there isn’t the odd good betting opportunity among the pattern races on day two of the bet365 Cambridgeshire Festival at Newmarket, though, as there can be all sorts of reasons to oppose favourites, especially at this undulating course, and especially on rapidly drying ground.

It was still good to soft at HQ in midweek after 52mm of rainfall last week, including 12mm last Sunday alone, but a mild and breezy couple of days has seen the official description turn good to firm ahead of Friday's racing.

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There are no fears over such conditions for Master Of The Seas or Benbatl as the latter looks to build on his comeback run – something he’s not always done to great effect, admittedly - in the Group Two Unibet “You’re On” Joel Stakes, a race in which Benbatl was third behind Kameko last year having won it in 2019 by five lengths.

I’m not mad about opposing the Godolphin pair in truth in spite of the Saeed bin Suroor yard being hit-and-miss but it’s a little more tempting to tackle Albaflora in the Group Three Unibet Princess Royal Stakes.

She’s not run since the Yorkshire Oaks and has produced her very best form on ground with some dig in it, but she does have a clear class edge in this company and even though this may prove to be a tee-up run for the Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes at Ascot next month, I struggled to find anything at a big enough price to take her on.

The closest I came to having a bet in the race was Doncaster fillies’ handicap winner Sea La Rosa for William Haggas, who can occasionally give his hand away by running well-bred fillies seemingly out of their depth based purely on official marks.

Nothing ventured, nothing gained...

It wouldn’t be a huge surprise if the progressive three-year-old Sea La Rosa (93) proved up to bridging the ratings gap with Albaflora (110) to grab some all-important black type but using the same sort of approach I’d rather back her stable companion READY TO VENTURE at 16/1-plus in the Unibet 3 Uniboosts A Day EBF Rosemary Stakes earlier on the card.

She’s got a huge amount to find with the likes of Soft Whisper, Ummalnar and Fooraat on official figures but I’m convinced we’ve yet to see the best of this Kingman filly, who won a Yarmouth maiden 12 months ago and shaped with real potential on her seasonal return when third to Creative Flair at Ascot in the spring.

Creative Flair went on to win at Listed level, as did runner-up Auria, and they’re now rated 105 and 98 respectively so I’m not buying Ready To Venture’s relatively low mark of 92 as I felt she shaped as well as anything in the Ascot race.

She’s obviously had an issue or two since then as she fluffed her lines (13/8 favourite) in the driving wind and rain at Goodwood and wasn’t much better at Newbury when returning from a couple of months off, but the cheekpieces going on has sparked her back to life lately and she’s looked dead unlucky not to get a fair crack at things on her last two outings.

After not getting a clear run a furlong or so out, she appeared to have just about done enough in a four-runner race at Pontefract, only to be called the runner-up after a photo was required, and she again got checked at a crucial point when sixth – beaten just a couple of lengths in the end – back at Ascot earlier this month.

She ran on all too late but it was another performance which can be marked up and there could still be loads more in the locker given the headgear looks to have sharpened her up.

She’ll get a good pace to chase here courtesy of Wedding Dance, Ummalnar, Maamora and Declared Interest who all like to get on with it, and could be able to give Haggas a fourth victory in the race. She wouldn’t actually be the lowest-rated Haggas-trained winner, Etaab having also come from handicap grade when outrunning her mark of 89 – she beat a Gosden filly rated 104 – in the 2014 edition.

Finally, Kingman’s progeny perform really well on the Rowley Mile this time of year (8/38 at 21.05% during months of September/October) which isn’t surprising as they generally like to get their toe in, but Ready To Venture’s best efforts have all come on good to firm going and I’m hopeful she’ll cope just fine with both the track and fast ground.

Timeform Race Passes offer

Look to fast-finishing La Rav for York value

The most appealing betting heat at York is the williamhill.com Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap over seven furlongs and although Able Kane being scratched takes away one of the more likely pace angles, a true test still looks assured courtesy of Poet’s Magic, Lion Tower, Challet and Colour Image from the inside stall.

That should suit LA RAV absolutely perfectly and I’m surprised he’s available at the price he is after such a good run at Beverley on Monday.

Having capitalised on a falling mark with a clear-cut success under Joanna Mason on the Westwood late last month, he was among the favourites to double up – something he achieved with consecutive wins over a mile at Newcastle last autumn – off a 5lb higher mark at the start of the week.

He missed the kick as the stalls opened, which isn’t totally unusual for him, but ran on eyecatchingly well from the back in a race fought out by horses who had sat much closer to the pace-making outsider King’s Pavilion.

La Rav goes into a stronger race here but he gets to compete off the same mark (reassessed next Tuesday) and it’s one he looks well up to exploiting, having been rated a peak 94 in his early days for Luca Cumani.

The seven-year-old doesn’t have many miles on the clock after 21 races all told, obviously gets on well with his excellent 3lb claiming rider, and looks likely to have the race run to suit.

He’s a bet at anything north of 10/1.

Published at 1500 BST on 23/09/21

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