Ayr Gold Cup tips: Best value bets for Ayr and Newbury on Saturday September 18
Value Bet tips: Saturday, September 18
1pt win Tinto in 2.30 Ayr at 28/1 (General)
1pt win Soldier's Minute in 2.30 Ayr at 25/1 (General)
1pt win Further Measure in 3.25 Newbury at 14/1 (bet365)
1pt win Edraak in 3.40 Ayr at 25/1 (General)
1pt win Volatile Analyst in 3.40 Ayr at 40/1 (General)
1pt win Maglev in 4.00 Newbury at 8/1 (bet365)
Strong pace and kind draw points to Edraak
Quite whether high or low numbers will fare best in Saturday’s Virgin Bet Ayr Gold Cup remains an unknown, even after Friday’s Bronze Cup when the low numbers dominated, but those drawn near trailblazing pair Just Frank and Mr Wagyu (16 and 18 respectively) should get every chance to be towed into it, and connections of EDRAAK must be delighted with stall 20.
His last race was something of a non-entity in terms of pace, the seven runners dawdling through the early stages at Haydock earlier in the month, with Edraak missing a beat at the start before using up too much energy with no cover on the outside of the bunch.
He finished fourth, beaten two and a quarter-lengths, but was value for a bit more than that and is fancied to absolutely thrive in Saturday’s big-field scenario with plenty of front-runners to chase.
Mick Appleby’s horse was in danger of getting an ‘all-weather specialist’ tag after blotting the copybook at York and Doncaster last season, in between fine runs at Newcastle and Lingfield, but he’s blown that theory out of the water this time around when really coming alive at Windsor.
He fairly bolted up in the shadows of the castle in April before resuming winning ways in a Sprint Series Qualifier there in mid-June. Despite bursting a blood vessel that day, he readily defied a mark of 94 and, nudged up 6lb, was subsequently an unlucky fourth (denied a clear run) in the Final at the start of August.
Edraak’s Haydock effort since the Ayr weights were published has prompted the assessor to drop him back to 99 and he’s still got to run off 100 again here, but I’m convinced he’s up to the job, especially after Friday’s showers as he evidently got a bit jarred up on rattling quick ground at Doncaster in May.
Appleby has booked the yard’s solid 3lb claimer Theodore Ladd (+120.50 level stakes profit for Appleby in the last five seasons) to help ease his burden and I’m keen on his claims.
Add Analyst to staking plan at wild price
The other one I can’t resist here without a small, win-only dart is the Keith Dalgleish-trained VOLATILE ANALYST, who is drawn near the middle in 10.
Like 33/1 antepost fancy Snazzy Jazzy, for whom even more rain would have been preferred, he has a perfect course and distance record to protect (2-2) and if he brings his A-game then he might just give it a decent shot.
That’s far from guaranteed based on the horse’s overall profile but in-form Dalgleish has always held him in high regard and Volatile Analyst looked capable of potentially mixing in the best handicap company when winning despite hanging across the track at York this spring.
He’s been out, in and back out of form again across three starts since then, the highlight coming when a non-staying yet creditable fourth behind Marie’s Diamond here in July.
He made no impression over seven furlongs at Doncaster last time but is definitely of interest dropping right back to sprinting. There are no ground fears with him either as he’s won on good to firm (twice) and soft, while he’s 2lb lower than for that last visit to Ayr when really tanking through the race before not getting home.
On his best behaviour, lightly-raced four-year-old Volatile Analyst is no 40/1 shot.
Tinto backed to land Silver Cup gold
The Silver Cup could go the way of TINTO, who was second to Edraak at Windsor earlier in the season.
He’s a well-versed five-year-old these days and his current losing run stretches back to last June, when beating Summerghand a length and a quarter off level weights in a Newmarket handicap. That rival heads the weights for Saturday’s main event so they’ve clearly gone their separate ways since.
Tinto, rated 100 when winning at HQ and now running off 91, strongly hinted at a revival when fourth behind another Gold Cup contender in Popmaster at Ascot off the same mark earlier this month, and it wouldn’t be the first time he’s come good at the back end of the year with half of his six career wins recorded in the months of September and October.
Paul Mulrennan is one of the north’s very best jockeys when it comes to delivering sprinters from off the pace and he may have his work cut out if Tinto fluffs his lines as has become something of an annoying trait. However, he does have the prospect of a very strong pace to track from stall seven, with Uncle Jumbo (1), Magical Spirit (4), Bergerac (5), SOLDIER'S MINUTE (6), Gabrial The Devil (8) and Royal Scimitar (9) all expected to be helping to force the issue on the far side.
The well-treated Tinto has enough ability to take full advantage of that ideal set-up.
Tuned to the Minute for Silver service?
Of the aforementioned prominent racers, Soldier's Minute - another for local trainer Dalgleish - is also worth having on side at the general 25/1.
He comes here a relatively fresh horse this season after just three runs and, having been seventh and fourth in the last two Gold Cups from marks of 96 and 98, the six-year-old has a big chance of being in the shake-up here having slipped to 92.
He faced a stiff task against subsequent Sprint Cup winner Emaraaty Ana at Hamilton on his penultimate start and has since failed to make a telling impact in the Great St Wilfrid. Ripon isn't for every horse, though, and returning to this track should be more up his street. This meeting may have been his target for a little while now.
Kirk horse to measure up against youngsters
Plenty of sexy three-year-olds have been turned over in Newbury’s Dubai Duty Free Handicap down the years and the value may lie in opposing King Of Clubs and Aramaic, who have both been hit with 7lb hikes for recent respective wins at Sandown and York.
They aren’t the only youngsters on the prowl here but with Injazati – raised 6lb - allowed to do his own thing from the front last time at Newcastle, and Kempton novice winner Mo’assess allotted a stiff enough introductory mark of 93, the older horses must at least have a sniff.
Four-year-old Juddmonte cast-off FURTHER MEASURE has had just the three starts in this country since being picked up for 50,000 guineas by Sylvester Kirk from France last autumn and two of those outings have come over seven furlongs. The last of which, when resuming from a 224-day gelding layoff at Sandown last month, caught the attention of the stewards as Charles Bishop had to state he was denied a clear run close home.
It wasn’t a wildly eyecatching effort but the horse clearly improved for it when returned to a mile at Chelmsford earlier this month, doing his best work late on to get up and ultimately win a shade cosily (see replay below).
The handicapper has only nudged him up 2lb to 86 which remains perfectly workable as he had a mark of 89 when first arriving on these shores and given his pedigree points to middle-distances, there’s still untapped potential to scale a little higher as he tackles a mile and a quarter for the first time here.
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Take on Dhabab with fellow Newmarket improver
The Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes looks a solid edition and at the prices MAGLEV looks worth backing against Dhabab.
There’s a lot to like about John and Thady Gosden’s market leader who was an eyecatcher in the Coventry and whose Superlative Stakes third could hardly have worked out better since, with victories for Native Trail and runner-up Masekela.
However, the William Haggas-trained Maglev looks a bit of a rising star too and he’s also going to relish the return to six furlongs having looked the quickest horse in the race by far when ultimately outstayed by Harrow in a seven-furlong nursery at the Ebor Festival.
Harrow has franked the form at Doncaster and looks bound for Group One company before long so Maglev’s fine effort behind him on the Knavesmire has to be marked up significantly.
Published at 1500 BST on 17/09/21
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