Randox Health Grand National at Aintree statistics

Age

- Winners have been aged 8, 9 (three), 10 (three) and 11 (three).

Quite a straightforward statistic with a relatively narrow age group dominating the race. Unfortunately, most of the field will qualify on this front but the ill-fated but celebrated Many Clouds has been the only winning eight-year-old. 

Two eight-year-olds filled second and third behind Rule The World last year - separated by the 13-year-old Vic's Canvas - and others were fifth in 2015 and another was placed in 2014 so they are knocking on the door. 

Weight and Official Rating

- Winners have carried between 10-3 and 11-9.

- Winners have been rated between 137 and 160.

The weight issue is possibly a misleading one due to changes made to how ratings are allotted to runners for the Grand National and the same may also be true of the official ratings of winners.

A concerted effort has been made to improve the quality of the runners contesting the Grand National and that has resulted in the weights being compressed. As a result, lightly weighted horses are no longer the dominant force of old and five winners have carried 11-0 or higher.

The compression of the weights has meant that higher rated horses are at less of a disadvantage and Many Clouds was rated 160. The 2012 winner Neptune Collonges had a mark of 157 and four other winners in the last decade have been rated 148 or higher.

Starting Price

- Winners were priced between 7/1 and 100/1 with three at 14s or under and eight at 33s or less.

Don't Push It (2012) and Comply Or Die (2008) were both joint-favourites but no other market leader has struck since with Mon Mome (100/1) and Auroras Encore (66/1) springing big surprises.

They are exceptions to the rule though with the eight other winners returned at 33/1 or less so it certainly pays to concentrate on the top half of the market.

Course Form

- Seven winners were running over the National fences for the first time.

- Two winners had contested the previous season's Grand National.

Modifications have been made to the famous Grand National fences in recent years and this may well have lessened the 'Aintree effect'. Runners with prior experience of the course enjoyed a good run in the famous chase but six of the last seven winners were having their first taste of the National fences. However of those six, four had run at Aintree either over hurdles or over regulation fences on the Mildmay course.

Stamina

- Eight winners had won or been placed over at least three and a half miles.

The race is run over a demanding four miles, two furlongs and 74 yards and siding with a runner that has proven form over an extreme trip is key.

The exceptions to the above statistic are Many Clouds and the 150-rated Ballabriggs. The former had won the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury over three miles and two furlongs earlier in the same season which was the furthest he had tackled prior to disappointing in the Cheltenham Gold Cup over an extra 70 yards on the run before winning at Aintree. 

Similarly, the furthest that Ballabriggs had tackled prior to winning the Grand National was when successful in the three mile one and a half furlong Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase at the 2010 Cheltenham Festival.

Experience

- All of the winners had run at least 10 times over fences.

- Nine winners had won a class two handicap chase or above.

- Nine winners had won or been placed in a race of at least 19 runners.

Last year's winner Rule The World was a novice chaser but he was in his second season over fences having failed to win a chase in his first campaign over the larger obstacles.

Many Clouds was also a second season chaser and it will be interesting to see if the run of runners with such a profile will be continued. They appear to have quite a strong hand with leading contenders Blaklion, Definitly Red and One For Arthur among their number.

Not every horse is suited to running in a large field and it's no surprise that nine of the winners had form in a race of at least 19 runners. The exception was another class act in Neptune Collonges who didn't get many opportunities to race in large fields but he did finish a respectable sixth of 28 in the Scottish Grand National (when rated 11lbs higher), the year before winning at Aintree.

Recent form

- Eight winners ran between four and seven times during the current season.

- Five winners ran over hurdles during the current season.

- All winners had their prep race after mid-February.

- Eight winners finished in the first six on their preceding start. 

Running over hurdles used to be de rigeur as connections attempted to protect their handicap marks but with the changes to the way that the race is weighted, that has become less of a phenomenon.

Winners have had relatively busy campaigns with 2014 scorer Pineau De Re running a remarkable 10 times with Ballabriggs the least raced with just three starts.

Donald McCain Junior's charge is the only runner other than Many Clouds to have won more than one race during the season though while five winners were gaining their first success of the season in the Grand National itself.

All of the winners warmed up for their tilt at the National with a run from mid-February onwards but the likes of One For Arthur haven't been sighted since the middle of January.

One of the exceptions pulled up over hurdles.

Jockeys and Trainers

The last amateur to win the Grand National was Marcus Armytage in 1990 but Sam Waley-Cohen is the most successful rider over the Grand National fences.

That hasn't extended to the race itself where he has finished placed twice (second in 2011 and fourth in 2013) where Ruby Walsh and Leighton Aspell (two wins each) leading the way for current jockeys.

Walsh has also finished in the places on four other occasions while compatriot Barry Geraghty has also hit the frame four times as well as riding the winner in 2003. Champion Jockey Richard Johnson has had most Grand National rides without winning (20) but did finish second in both 2002 and 2014.

Two is the number of wins for trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies (1998 and 2002) while Costwold neighbour Jonjo O’Neill has saddled one winner, two seconds, three thirds, two fifths and a sixth from 30 runners since 2003.

Conclusion

There have been a couple of exceptions in the last decade but generally it has paid to focus on horses with form over at least three and a half miles which is something a surprisingly large number of the field lack.

A relatively good recent run has also been desirable and a few more runners can be ruled out on that score.

Only two winners had won more than once during the current season but VIEUX LION ROUGE brings strong credentials to the table and is preferred to The Young Master.

1. 1. Vieux Lion Rouge
2. 2. The Young Master
3. 3. Cause Of Causes
4. 4. The Last Samuri
5. 5. Raz De Maree