MMA betting tips: UFC Vegas 36 preview and best bets
MMA betting tips: UFC Vegas 36
3pts Darren Till to win by KO/TKO at 7/5 (Betvictor)
1.5pts - Modestas Bukauskas to win in round 3 or by Decision at 12/5 (PaddyPower/Betfair)
0.5pt - Modestas Bukauskas to win by Decision at 14/5 (PaddyPower/Betfair)
Where to watch UFC Vegas 36?
- The action is live on BT Sport from 1900 BST.
UFC Vegas 36 is a bittersweet event for European MMA fans, as the card kicks off at a much more convenient time than usual and features a variety of European talent, but was also originally scheduled to take place at London’s O2 Arena.
UK fans will not be in attendance to sing Sweet Caroline as Liverpool’s Darren Till makes the walk to the cage, but they can take solace in the fact that he finds himself in a favourable match-up against the surging Derek Brunson. The main card also features the return of Tom Aspinall, who looks set to be England’s best-ever chance of competing for a Heavyweight UFC title, as well as the debut of the highly regarded Paddy Pimblett.
Cash in on Till
Since moving up to the middleweight division, Darren Till has looked every bit the prospect he was always expected to be. Dana White has recently admitted that the UFC did not handle Till’s early run in the organisation well, offering him a title opportunity far too early in his career, and it is hard to disagree now that The Gorilla is competing against the best of the 185lbs division.
Derek Brunson’s recent fortunes have also earned him a spot in the top 10 of the division, having pulled off upsets against Kevin Holland and Edmen Shahbazyan. Brunson’s four-fight winning streak is impressive, but the fighters he defeated have gone on to look underwhelming in later performances, perhaps indicating that Brunson was fortunate to be matched up against fighters overrated by many.
Against Till, Brunson is certainly facing a step up in competition, but the rankings and his impressive ‘underdog’ performances have disguised that fact. Prior to the current win streak, Brunson was regarded as a wrestler that struggled against any fighter that could stay upright, with five UFC knockout losses further emphasising his frailty on the feet.
Till has more than proven his ability to defend takedowns, especially in the clinch, where Brunson usually attempts them. It took Israel Adesanya less than five minutes to score the knockout victory over Brunson, and extended periods of striking on Saturday night should present a similar outcome for Till.
The patience and composure that Till has demonstrated in his last two fights at middleweight show that The Gorilla has evolved as a fighter, and his defensive wrestling capabilities will give him the chance to showcase it on Saturday night. With 25 minutes to find a stoppage, backing Till to win by KO/TKO at 7/5 seems the right bet for Saturday night’s main event.
Bukauskas to bounce back
Modestas Bukauskas has shown promise in the UFC so far, but a pair of difficult matchups have stunted the Londoner’s progress. Michael Oleksiejczuk and Jimmy Crute are considered top 15 calibre at 205lbs, so The Baltic Gladiator will relish the opportunity to compete in a more even contest against Saturday night’s opponent, Khalil Rountree.
Rountree has had his ups and downs in recent years, pulling off a memorable performance against Eryk Anders before losing twice in a row and flirting with retirement. Having won just one of his last four bouts, it feels as if The War Horse’s days in the UFC are numbered, one way or another. His most recent loss was by far the most alarming, as he was soundly beaten as a 2/7 favourite, landing just 49 significant strikes and offering little offense outside of the opening round.
Rountree’s inability to perform consistently across 15 minutes has always been a huge detriment. Due to his athletic explosiveness and muscle mass, he appears to rely solely on winning by knockout in the early goings, or else his volume and footwork abandon him in the latter half of the fight.
The same cannot be said for Bukauskas who, despite being at a speed and power disadvantage, has proven that he can maintain a consistent pace for three rounds, making him the much more likely fighter to prevail on the judges’ scorecards, should they be needed.
The hypothetical outcomes therefore seem rather binary, as Bukauskas should march on to victory if the fight reaches the second round. Rountree will have every opportunity to land a finish within that opening five minute window, but The Baltic Gladiator should be well aware of his opponents power and should coast in the early goings.
Rountree will likely remain competitive throughout the second round, but Bukauskas will turn up the pressure in the third. A late finish is plausible for the Londoner if he increases the pressure and drowns an already tired Rountree, but otherwise a decisive scorecard victory awaits. Splitting a wager across Bukauskas to win in Round 3 or by Decision at 12/5, as well as Bukauskas to win by Decision at 15/4 seems the most profitable way to capitalise on this fight.
Posted at 1330 BST on 03/09/2021
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