Seungwoo Choi is tipped to win by knockout
Seungwoo Choi is tipped to win by knockout

MMA betting tips: UFC Vegas 29 preview and best bets


MMA expert Will Dean looks ahead to UFC Vegas 29 this weekend, where a trio of fighters appeal to secure knockout wins.

MMA betting tips: UFC Vegas 29, Saturday June 19

3pts Seungwoo Choi to win by KO/TKO or on points at 5/6 (Paddy Power, Betfair)

2pts Bruno Silva to win by KO/TKO/DQ at 2/1 (William Hill)

1.5pts Matt Brown v Dhiego Lima not to go the distance at 11/10 (General)

0.5pt Matt Brown to win by KO/TKO/DQ at 5/1 (PaddyPower, Betfair)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook


With The Ultimate Fighter recently making its return after a three-year hiatus, Featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski has his hands full with fellow coach Brian Ortega. After the two conclude the season and eventually fight one another, the emerging champion will be looking for their next contender, who could be featuring in this Saturday’s main event showdown between Chan Sung Jung and Dan Ige.

The headline bout at the UFC Apex will be closely contested between two well rounded and durable fighters, as is reflected in a dead even betting line. A confident bet will be hard to find in that fight, so attention turns to other exciting bouts on the main card as the hard-hitting Bruno Silva finally gets to showcase his skills, Seungwoo Choi looks for his third consecutive victory and Matt Brown goes toe to toe with Dhiego Lima.


When is UFC Vegas 29?

Saturday, June 19

How can I watch it on TV?

Coverage is live in the UK on BT Sport 1, from 2200 BST


Sting like a bee

Before Chan Sung Jung battles in the main event, fellow countryman SEUNGWOO CHOI will be looking to get the South Koreans’ night off to a winning start. Sting is currently riding a two-fight winning streak and has proven himself as a skilled fighter with very few weaknesses. He has the perfect blend of precision, speed and composure on the feet and has made many strikers turn to their grappling in an attempt to best him.

Julian Erosa also finds himself on a hat-trick mission, having emerged victorious from back to back wars. Juicy J is a tenacious brawler who looks for the finish from the opening bell, throwing spinning attacks and flying knees with explosive power. This approach has had varied success over the years for Erosa, who is currently on his second stint in the UFC and has a negative record inside the company with two wins and three losses.

Erosa’s enthusiasm for wild exchanges could prove to be the pivotal factor here, as he often finds himself outclassed against more technical opponents who can weather the storm he brews. Choi may not have faced an opponent as wild as Erosa, but he is yet to meet his match on the feet and should be able to turn the tide once the pace of the fight settles. Sting’s composure and concentration will be crucial, but I think he has all the tools to show himself the more complete martial artist overall.

Choi has been to decision in both of his UFC wins, but has shown finishing ability on the regional scene. Furthermore, Erosa has been stopped by strikes in five of his nine losses (with the other four coming by decision). While the odds on the decision prop look tempting, the added safety of backing CHOI TO WIN BY KO/TKO OR DECISION is the smartest choice at 5/6.

No second chances for Silva

BRUNO SILVA makes his long awaited debut against Wellington Turman on Saturday night, having been on the UFC’s books for almost three years. Not to be confused with the Flyweight of the same name that was tipped a few weeks ago, Blindado is an explosive Middleweight striker who has won 16 of his 19 career wins by knockout. The Brazilian is guaranteed entertainment whenever he steps inside the cage, hence the UFC’s decision to place him on the main card for his debut.

Silva will be looking for a highlight-reel finish to repay the UFC’s faith in him, as his extended period of absence was the result of a failed drug test upon signing for the company. The details are rarely revealed, but Silva still looks as fit and explosive as ever in any training footage available, and if he can perform at the same level as in recent years then he could be destined for the top 15 of the division.

Turman is also on thin ice with the UFC after losing two of his three bouts. In his debut loss to Karl Roberson, one of the least defensively aware grapplers in the UFC today, Turman struggled to maintain top control and frequently found himself being swept and reversed. He then went on to win a decision over Markus Perez, who was causing problems on the feet with his unconventional style until he fatigued. Most recently, Turman was soundly beaten and knocked out in less than five minutes by conventional wrestler Andrew Sanchez.

In each of these fights, Turman struggled with certain attributes that Silva has in abundance. Should he be taken down, Blindado uses his explosiveness similarly to Roberson to quickly find a way to his feet and has defeated Russian grapplers with better top control than his opponent on Saturday. When engaging in the striking, Silva’s attacks come from awkward angles like Perez, but he has the endurance to maintain such output over the course of 15 minutes. Finally, the Brazilian has even more power in his hands than Sanchez, and should be able to knock Turman out if he connects cleanly.

Of course, all of this is dependent on Silva looking like the same fighter that dominated in Russia back in 2018, which naturally provides a small amount of risk. Had the results of the drug test never been made public, I believe Silva would be a bigger sized favourite in this bout, and the oddsmakers are relying on him looking significantly worse on Saturday night. With Blindado winning 84% of his fights via KNOCKOUT, it is sensible to seek out the better priced knockout prop at 2/1.

The Immortal to live on

In a showdown of two experienced fighters, MATT BROWN and Dhiego Lima seem at peace with the notion that their fight on Saturday could very easily turn into carnage. With 40 professional bouts to his name, Brown has reached the scorecards on just seven occasions, making him one of the most exciting fighters to watch since his debut back in 2005.

Now at 40 years of age, The Immortal knows that his time left in the sport is ironically wearing thin, but that will not change the way he fights. Brown is a fighter hellbent on pursuing the finish and putting on an exciting fight for the fans, which is precisely why his career has been adored by so many. A year ago this week, he was facing an 8-0 up-and-coming knockout artist 12 years his junior in Miguel Baeza who, despite ultimately getting the better of the veteran, was pushed to his limit and almost knocked down himself in the first round.

Brown’s insistence to live and die by the sword makes his bout with Lima very intriguing, as the latter has been known for his durability issues in recent years. Half of the Brazilian’s losses have come by knockout, when facing opponents that bully him up against the cage and make him question his commitment. Lima has managed to avoid being finished lately, but this seems largely due a fortunate spree of opponents that do not pose a knockout threat. Against Brown, Lima will have to work hard to survive an onslaught.

Of course, with retirement soon on the horizon for Brown, his durability is also questionable. Having been involved in so many wars, The Immortal’s body has become susceptible to liver shots. Lima himself also holds considerable power, despite what his record suggests. If this bout does turn into the war that both men are expecting, then a finish seems far more likely than not.

Surprisingly, oddsmakers seem to disagree with that statement, pricing the fight to END INSIDE THE DISTANCE at appealing odds of 11/10 that are simply too good to ignore. For an extra wager, backing BROWN TO WIN BY KO/TKO/DQ at 5/1 is even more valuable, as the 40-fight veteran will be the one pushing forward and pursuing the finish on an opponent that has proven easy to finish.

Posted at 1330 BST on 17/06/21


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