Islam Makhachev
Islam Makhachev

MMA betting tips: UFC Fight Night preview and best bets


MMA expert Will Dean looks ahead to UFC Fight Night, where Islam Makhachev gets the vote to win via decision in the main event.

MMA betting tips: UFC Fight Night

2.5pts Islam Makhachev to win by decision at 20/21 (bet365)

3pts Miesha Tate to win at 8/11 (General)

2pts Mateusz Gamrot to win by submission or decision at 8/5 (Paddy Power)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook


Makhachev The Successor

For some time now, UFC fans have believed ISLAM MAKHACHEV to be the heir to Khabib Nurmagomedov’s throne. The duo grew up together in Dagestan, Russia and still remain training partners to this day, which explains why their fighting styles are so similar.

Combat Sambo has proven to be an incredibly difficult fundamental to overcome in MMA, with Makhachev having absorbed less than one significant strike per minute across his nine UFC bouts. He did suffer a knockout loss in his second fight in the organisation in 2015, but seems to have come back stronger, nullifying every opponent in the process.

Such dominance has earned him the ninth spot in the Lightweight rankings, but also a reputation amongst his peers. There are arguments that Makhachev should already be fighting for a title at this stage in his career, but a lack of willing opponents has prevented him from making progress. Fortune favours the brave though, and 14th-ranked Thiago Moises will have the opportunity to overtake many higher-ranked fighters should he pull off the upset on Saturday night.

With the bookies deeming Makhachev a 1/6 favourite in the main event, calling a Moises victory an upset seems like an understatement. His striking is improving every fight, but he does not seem to possess the raw power required to win the fight in the blink of an eye. Primarily a grappler, the Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt has six tap-out wins on his record, with one coming in the UFC.

This would be concerning, had Makhachev not recently fought and soundly beaten Davi Ramos, one of the most credentialed BJJ grapplers in the sport. Just like in that fight, Makhachev should be too positionally intelligent to get caught in a submission while on top.

The winner of this fight seems like a foregone conclusion, so the betting narrative shifts towards deciphering exactly how Makhachev gets the job done. The Russian’s ground striking seems very much like a means to an end, and having finished just three of his 19 wins with strikes I don’t expect a durable Moises to lose in such a manner.

Moises’ submission grappling credentials should also be good enough to prevent the Russian from setting up a submission, as BJJ puts as much emphasis on defending them as it does applying them. Having survived on the ground against the surging Beneil Dariush back in 2018, the Brazilian has proven that he will not tap easily.

This fight seems likely to hit the scorecards, with Makhachev the clear winner after 25 gruelling minutes of heavy top pressure. Without a clear path to victory via stoppage, betting the heavy favourite MAKHACHEV TO WIN BY DECISION at 10/11 seems like a smart and logical choice, given the durability and grappling competence of Moises. This main event might not be as entertaining as last week’s, but Makhachev is nothing if not reliable.

Tate Modern

MIESHA TATE makes a surprise return to the UFC’s Octagon after retiring from competition almost five years ago. The narrative surrounding her matchup with Marion Reneau is entirely focused on time, as the latter is currently the oldest fighter on the roster at 44 years of age. It is not often that the fighter coming out of retirement is 10 years younger than their opponent, but in this instance the concerns are equal for both parties and seemingly cancel each other out.

That said, Cupcake has looked to be in phenomenal shape for this fight, and her dedication to her return seems unquestionable. Unlike most competitors who eventually retire, Tate’s record did not plateau as dramatically as you would expect. While she comfortably lost her last two bouts in the UFC, she was defending the Women’s Bantamweight Championship against Amanda Nunes (who is still yet to be dethroned) on the first occasion.

Her seemingly untarnished legacy differs greatly from Reneau, who is currently on a four-fight losing streak and will be retiring herself after this one. Historically, an older fighter’s final venture in the Octagon is most likely to end in defeat, with questions surrounding their dedication to training every day when their minds are likely focused on what their future holds after fighting.

The momentum for this fight therefore clearly resides with Tate, but stylistically I think this is her fight to lose anyway. Reneau has always struggled against grapplers, having had less control time than her opponents in each of her last six bouts, and managing a 50% takedown defence rate across her UFC career. Statistics such as these fully justify how Reneau has managed to go 1-7 on the scorecards since her professional debut, with Tate winning eight of her 10 fights that have gone the distance.

Cupcake is a lifelong wrestler and was widely regarded as one of Women’s MMA’s best grapplers during her career, so she should have no trouble getting this fight to the ground and keeping it there. She will be at a striking disadvantage compared to The Belizean Bruiser, but her gritty wrestling style has seen her overcome this many times before. If she survives the knockout, I think Tate will find a submission or her own or pick up a clear victory on the scorecards.

It is hard to see past the career narratives that have dictated the headlines for both women this weekend, but in their prime I think Tate would be a significant favourite over Reneau. There will be some valid questions surrounding ring rust and regression for the former champion, but I think Reneau presents the perfect opponent for Cupcake to provide the answers and, at 8/11, TATE TO WIN rates one of the best bets on the main card.

Stephens To Survive The Polish Power

Polish prospect MATEUSZ GAMROT gets a name-value opponent on the main card, as he takes on 47-fight veteran Jeremy Stephens. It has become a rite of passage for any aspiring talent to eventually face off against Lil’ Heathen, whose stubbornness, knockout power and cardio provide a challenging test for anyone hoping to enter the rankings.

Despite a split decision loss in his UFC debut to another surging prospect, Gamrot’s 18-1 professional career has been full of promise. He is incredibly well rounded and can win fights solely on the feet or on the mat, but the real beauty to his game comes from his ability to mix up the various martial arts. Against a dedicated veteran like Stephens, this will be vital.

Gamer can certainly hold his own on the feet against Stephens but it very much feels like the American’s greatest path to victory involves him landing a knockout blow. To negate this, Gamrot’s versatility should see him rely heavily on his takedowns and clinch control in this fight, where he can upset the rhythm of his opponent and frustrate him. Lil’ Heathen is renowned for his hot-headedness and tendency to get frustrated, which often impedes his ability and scuppers his game plan as he swings for the fences and tries to punish his opponent. If Gamrot can use this to his advantage, he should get the better of their exchanges.

At this stage in both men’s careers, Gamrot is undoubtedly the more skilled and technical fighter, but Stephens is experienced and durable. Throughout nearly 50 fights, he has been knocked out on just three occasions, with one coming from a body shot. Gamer has proved he is capable of wins by knockout, submission and decision (with six, four and eight finishes via each method respectively), but it feels as if a victory due to strikes is the least likely against the American.

I was therefore surprised to see that bookmakers favour the knockout method over all others, which resulted in some appealing value on GAMROT TO WIN BY SUBMISSION OR DECISION at 8/5, a much more appealing proposition than his 4/9 outright price.

Posted at 1350 BST on 16/07/21

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