MMA betting tips: UFC 261 betting tips, Saturday April 24
MMA betting tips: UFC 261
3pts Kamaru Usman to win by Decision at 4/5 (General)
1pt Weili Zhang to win by KO/TKO at 5/2 (Sky Bet)
2pts Ariane Carnelossi to win by KO/TKO or Submission at 5/4 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
The UFC returns to Jacksonville, Florida for UFC 261, marking the organisation’s first venture away from both Fight Island and the UFC Apex since May 2020. The change in venue is purely to facilitate the return of a crowd, as 15,000 diehard UFC fans will be in attendance once again.
There was no better event to coincide with the return of fans than UFC 261, which features three title fights, headlined by a rematch between Kamaru Usman and Jorge Masvidal. The co-main event features an intriguing Strawweight battle between Weili Zhang and former champion Rose Namajunas, while Valentina Shevchenko faces her toughest test in years as she takes on the ever aggressive Jessica Andrade.
Recurring Nightmare
UFC fans were certainly confused when this rematch between KAMARU USMAN and Jorge Masvidal was announced, as their July 2020 showdown was one of the most one-sided shutouts of the entire year. Masvidal has argued that the short notice nature of the bout was the sole cause of his loss, but Usman was in a dominant position for 65% of the fight and registered the 10th most strikes ever landed in a UFC fight along the way.
From an analytical perspective, there is not much to dissect that has not already been demonstrated from the first fight. Masvidal may have the benefit of an entire training camp this time around, but that also gives Usman ample opportunity to craft a game plan that nullifies Gamebred’s skillset. To make matters worse, The Nigerian Nightmare demonstrated vastly superior striking in his last fight against Gilbert Burns, which should close the gap on the only stylistic advantage that Masvidal possesses.
It is therefore unsurprising to see Usman as the 1/4 favourite in Saturday night’s main event, as the Welterweight champion has barely put a foot wrong in his six years in the UFC and appears to have Masvidal soundly covered. The Nigerian won their previous encounter by decision, bringing his total to nine scorecard victories from 13 appearances, and I expect the same outcome on Saturday night.
Having only been stopped in three of his 49 professional bouts, Masvidal’s durability is almost legendary. In fact, Gamebred’s most recent stoppage loss dates all the way back to 2009, when Usman was still in college. Combining the Cuban’s toughness with Usman’s willingness to coast in top position, I simply could not pass on the 4/5 for The Nigerian Nightmare to collect another decisive decision victory.
When is UFC 261?
Saturday, April 24 — although it'll be Sunday in the UK by the time the feature action begins
How can I watch it on TV?
Coverage is live in the UK on BT Sport 1, from 0100-0700 BST on Sunday April 25
Magnum Opus
The Strawweight division continues to deliver exciting title fights, with last year’s Fight of the Year between Joanna Jedrzejczyk and WEILI ZHANG still fresh in the minds of UFC fans. This time around, Zhang defends her title against Rose Namajunas, who famously dethroned the dominant Jedrzejczyk in 2017.
Zhang’s perfect concoction of technique and raw power has made her a force at the top of the division and, while last year’s showdown with Jedrzejczyk went right to the wire, it is hard to see anyone being able to match her in the striking department. Namajunas has been masterful at creating an appropriate game plan under the tutelage of Trevor Wittman, but I question if she will be able to create a strategy to best an opponent who can truly do it all on the feet.
Namajunas faces comparable challenges to her bouts against Jessica Andrade in this fight. Relying on an accurate and educated jab, Thug Rose used great footwork to remain elusive and keep away from Andrade’s power strikes in the opening round, winning the first five minutes dominantly on both occasions. However, she was unable to keep up with such a demanding style and began slowing down in the second round each time. Although she faces a different type of striker in Zhang, she is once again at a massive power disadvantage and will need to employ that movement-based strategy to keep the fight in her favour on Saturday night.
Considering we know Namajunas should slow down eventually against Magnum, the five rounds of this title fight will certainly play into the champion’s favour. We saw Zhang’s cardio and power hold up competently in her five-round war against Jedrzejczyk, so she will have the opportunity to tee off in the later rounds on a much more stationary target in Namajunas if the American employs the ‘stick and move’ game plan early on.
Should Thug Rose choose to fight differently and stand her ground against Zhang, then she is at a serious risk of being knocked out. There is such a big difference in the power that these women possess that Namajunas will not be able to gain the respect she requires. Whether it is by striking toe-to-toe or winning a war of attrition, I think there is good value on Zhang to retain her belt with a knockout victory this weekend.
An Intercontinental Showdown
ARIANE CARNELOSSI and Na Liang face off in the first preliminary bout of the night and it looks to be the perfect opener. These women come from very different regional scenes in Brazil and China respectively, and both have been involved in chaotic, wild fights so far in their careers.
Carnelossi made her UFC debut in a tough matchup against the ever-improving Angela Hill in late 2019 and was convincingly beaten, but I believe there were many positives to take from that performance, as well as her bouts on the regional circuit. Most importantly, the Brazilian striker has shown that she knows how to utilise forward pressure and a high volume of strikes to crowd her opponents and, mixed with some impressive power for a Strawweight, she is certainly dangerous.
Carnelossi has won 12 of her 14 professional bouts, and just three of these went to the scorecards. With eight knockouts and one submission to her name, the Brazilian has clearly proven herself to be a finisher.
In fact her striking style is somewhat reminiscent of fellow Brazilian Jessica Andrade, who fights on the main card later in the evening. Such a powerful and aggressive striking style will be advantageous against the unique style of Liang.
Training at the UFC’s Performance Institute in Shanghai, China, Na Liang is bound to be making improvements. While it is hard to find any footage of her competing since 2019, she has shown herself to be unapologetically one-dimensional in MMA so far. Citing Ronda Rousey as a major inspiration to her career, Liang has won nine of her fights by submission, including five armbar finishes (Rousey’s weapon of choice).
Liang does not seem interested in striking with her opponents, and looks to initiate the grappling as quickly as possible, sometimes shooting takedowns from too far a distance and pulling guard on other occasions.
The problem with this style of fighting is that it often fails to incorporate the striking element of MMA, and, simply put, a submission is not easy to find when you are being consistently punched in the face. This has been the case so far in Liang’s career, as she does not absorb strikes well at all and loses all attacking prowess once her opponent starts firing back. In all of her losses, she finds herself stuck in a position on the mat and shells up after absorbing a few hard ground strikes, waiting for the referee’s mercy or allowing her opponents to find a submission of their own.
Considering we know Carnelossi is a hard hitter, I struggle to see how Liang stays in this fight if she cannot find a slick, early submission. While this may seem like a plausible outcome for the successful grappler, Carnelossi actually holds a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt herself, from none other than the Nova Uniao gym in Rio de Janeiro, possibly the most successful BJJ gym in the world. At that high a level, you would expect Carnelossi to be as fluent in her offence as she is her defence, making the task of submitting her even more difficult.
If Liang has not developed her skills or game-planning significantly since those pre-2019 fights, she is in for a rough night against the aggressive Carnelossi. Of course, 24-year-old athletes can make big improvements in a short space of time, but there is enough to like about Carnelossi to trust her to find a finish at some point in this fight. It is rare to see a fighter’s stoppage price as short as 5/4 in Women’s MMA, but I believe on this occasion it is not only warranted, but also still providing a small amount of value.
Posted at 0800 BST on 22/04/21
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