UFC 253 main card and preliminary fight preview and tips: Israel Adesanya v Paulo Costa

Recommend bets

Main card

1pt Israel Adesanya to win via KO or Decision at 4/7

1pt Dominick Reyes to win via decision at 21/10

Preliminary fights

2pts Jake Matthews to win by decision at 10/11

2pts Ibragimov to win inside the distance at 2/1

0.5pts Ibragimov to win by Round 1 KO at 8/1

Main Card preview

by Kieran Cobley

In the main event, Israel Adesanya will look to defend his UFC middleweight title against undefeated contender Paulo Costa in what could be the fight of the year.

In the co-main event, Dominick Reyes and Jan Blachowicz will face off in the octagon to determine who will be the new light heavyweight champion, with the belt currently being vacant following Jon Jones’ move up to the heavyweight division.

Adesanya for the win

When looking into this fight, the one thing that stood out to me about Paulo Costa wasn’t his skills, or his size, but the fact that he has not taken on any fighter with striking as good as Israel Adesanya.

The Last Stylebender possesses elite level kickboxing skills that he honed before transition to MMA. This makes him the obvious pick for this fight, just by the fact that he has the best striking of any fighter in the UFC and is more than willing to engage in the clinch if needed.

Adesanya’s defensive wrestling is something that needs to be looked at as well. The middleweight champion has stuffed 86% of takedowns attempted on him.

This means that if Costa has to take the fight to the ground, which he probably will giving Adesanya holds a significant advantage on the feet, he will struggle. Even if the fight does get to the ground, Adesanya has demonstrated that he can wriggle out of the bottom position and get back to his feet in past fights.

In this fight, look for Adesanya to try and point his way to victory with combinations, which should make Costa more vulnerable to his power shots, giving him a chance at a KO victory too.

Reyes to go all the way

Dominick Reyes versus Jan Blachowicz is a fight that I am really looking forward to. Reyes is a fighter who is just about to reach his prime years at 30 years old, while Blachowicz is a well-rounded fighter, with seven KO and nine submission wins on his record.

Reyes is the rightful betting favourite in this fight. His last fight against Jones was his best performance yet, despite the loss, and it could be argued that he actually won the fight.

Reyes’ skillset is also something that I believe gives him the edge. His movement and wrestling abilities are fantastic and his striking comes on leaps and bounds with every fight he has.

Blachowiccz is no pushover, and he holds wins over the likes of former middleweight champion Luke Rockhold and top contender Corey Anderson, but I just don’t see him picking up a win here.

For this fight I expect Reyes will be the fighter pushing the pace throughout, using his strikes to back up his opponent the cage, before either leaning on him for the round and making the fight ugly, or taking him own to the mat and holding him there whilst landing damaging shots.

Reyes has gone the championship distance before with no issues, and that gives me the confidence to back him to win via decision.

Preliminary Fights

by William Dean

Nightmare to stay awake

Whilst UFC champions Israel Adesanya and Alex Volkanovski have recently taken Australasian MMA to new heights, Jake Matthews has been carrying the torch since before either were in the organisation. Once thought of as a top 15 prospect, The Celtic Kid has struggled when facing a higher calibre of opposition. However, with a 9-4 record inside the UFC he remains a worthy opponent for most of the Welterweight division.

Once upon a time, Hall of Famer Diego Sanchez would have been that step up in competition to cause the young Aussie problems. Unfortunately for Nightmare, his career has taken some questionable turns in its latter stages, going 3-3 in his last six bouts and enlisting the help of a life coach guru to be his corner man.

Time waits for no man in Mixed Martial Arts and the clock on Sanchez’s career has almost struck. Whilst his record may indicate that he has been competitive in his recent fights, the reality is that he has capitalised on lower calibre opponents and poor fight IQ. Matthews will be one of the most well rounded fighters that he has faced in recent years, and the hefty 1/7 price tag is mostly warranted.

For all of the concerns surrounding Sanchez, you can never question his grit and determination. Despite being outmatched on the feet in most of his recent bouts, he has not been knocked out in almost three years. The 38 year old has always shown a warrior spirit, and the fact he survived in his recent bout against heavy hitter Michel Pereira demonstrates that he can still take a punch.

Matthews, on the other hand, has had his career hindered by a lack of finishes. He demonstrated a slick submission game in his early UFC days, but I do not see it troubling a BJJ black belt like Sanchez here. Matthews is a more than competent striker and should absolutely win rounds, but with just three knockdowns in his UFC career and no KO victories since 2015, it is hard to imagine him putting Nightmare to sleep.

Short and Sweet for Ibragimov

All eyes will be on Khadis Ibragimov in the opening bout of the night, as the young Russian is surely fighting for his career. It feels as if the UFC would love to keep him around as, despite going 0-3, every appearance has been must-see action.

Ibragimov’s ability to turn fights into chaotic brawls is unquestionable, but the frantic pace he sets in round one can leave him fatigued as the fight goes on.

UFC newcomer Danilo Marques has been tasked with the role of the executioner here, but I am not convinced he is up to the task.

Initially you would think a 9-2 resumé is nothing to scoff at, but considering this has come against opponents with a combined record of 47-108, it certainly raises some questions about whether or not the Brazilian is really UFC quality.

Marques’ game plan revolves entirely around the takedown. In every bout I was able to find, he shot in at his opponents’ legs and looked to grapple instantly. Ibragimov has a background in Combat Sambo, which usually leads to good takedown defence.

Across his three UFC bouts so far, he has defended all six attempts to get the fight to the mat. Overall, I trust the Russian to keep this fight vertical. Once Marques becomes disheartened by his inability to grapple successfully, expect Ibragimov to swarm.

The Russian’s pace and explosiveness in round one is unmatched. In his UFC debut, he landed 59 significant strikes in an attempt to finish the ridiculously durable Da-Un Jung. If he unloads a similar barrage of heavy strikes on Saturday, I expect to see an early knockout victory.

Overall, I think the durability of Ibragimov’s previous UFC opponents really underplays the power he possesses.

To add to this, the striking defence of Marques and his reluctance to exchange on the feet only makes me more confident that the Russian will get his first UFC victory on Saturday night, most likely by first round knockout.

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