NFC West offseason update and odds: In Stafford they trust; big chance for Lance
Earlier this week we looked at the worst division in the NFL - now we turn our attention to one of the very best.
The NFC West could not be more different from the East, with three out of the four teams being bona fide Super Bowl contenders, and the fourth being a talent-laden roster which has so far underachieved.
We have a ton of factors to consider for 2021 after an offseason that delivered major storylines:
- The Rams traded the farm (again) to bring in quarterback Matthew Stafford in a bid to finally win the big one.
- The 49ers traded up in the draft to invest their future in North Dakota State QB Trey Lance (despite already having Jimmy Garoppolo on the books for a fortune).
- It was the offseason of discontent in Seattle for Russell Wilson and his camp. They even went as far as listing the teams he would be happy to be traded to after the second-half implosion in 2020.
- Arizona added more big names to its talented roster - picking up future Hall of Famers JJ Watt and A.J. Green among others. But now it is time for Kliff Kingsbury to deliver.
Throw in four of the most high-profile head coaches in the league, and you have the script for a season of off-the-charts tension and excitement.
Betting on the NFL is tougher than ever over the course of a season - it’s a parity-driven league where the salary cap and draft mean building a dynasty is almost impossible (unless your name happens to be Brady). The change is constant and anything is possible.
OddsCritic looks back at the NFC West in 2020, and also ahead to what might happen in 2021.
NFC West in 2020: Rams and Niners decide to move on
If you look at the final NFC West standings without knowing the back story, you are not even getting half of the real picture.
Seattle claimed the division with a 12-4 record, but by the end of the season it was a franchise somewhat in disarray. Go figure.
For the first half of the season the Seattle offense was stellar, with QB Wilson lighting it up and being a very real candidate for NFL MVP. The defense meanwhile was historically bad.
Trading two first-round picks for star Jets safety Jamal Adams helped shore up the back end and the defense turned it around after halfway. The offense though was headed in the opposite direction.
Wilson and his supporting cast fell off in terms of production and a playoff defeat by the injury-riddled Rams led to a miserable offseason in the Pacific Northwest.
For the Rams it was another season with playoff success, but it was also one which convinced head coach Sean McVay that change was needed at the quarterback position.
Arizona meanwhile flattered to deceive in 2020, failing to take the big step forward expected with sensationally talented QB Kyler Murray heading into his second year in the league.
Despite winning only six games in 2020 it’s easy to argue that San Francisco overachieved - the team was decimated by a brutal run of injuries, notably to QB Garoppolo and defensive star Nick Bosa.
Just a year out from a Super Bowl the Niners never stood a chance in 2020, but it was enough to tell them - like the Rams - that change was needed at the game’s most important position.
Final Standings
- 12-4 Seattle Seahawks
- 10-6 Los Angeles Rams
- 8-8 Arizona Cardinals
- 6-10 San Francisco 49ers
It says much about the pace of life in the NFL that you’d be shocked to see a repeat of those standings in 2021. We expect a terrific race to the division title, with at least three of the four teams having a very legitimate shot.
Los Angeles Rams in 2021
When you talk about a franchise which is in ‘win now’ mode, it’s likely the Rams.
This is an organisation which has apparently given up on building talent through the draft, and instead is happy to give up premium draft capital for proven commodities.
The next time the Rams will get a chance to actually use their first-round pick will be 2024, the last was 2016. That’s a nice segway into their quarterback situation.
Five years ago Los Angeles gave up the house to move up from #15 to #1 to take Cal quarterback Jared Goff.
For three years the Goff experiment in L.A. - with the signal caller expertly programmed by offensive genius McVay - worked almost perfecty. The Rams made the Super Bowl in early 2019, losing to New England.
Goff’s reward was a four-year contract extension worth $134million, but the love story would not last. After regression in 2019 and 2020, McVay clearly decided he couldn’t win it all with Jared under center.
In the offseason’s most stunning move, Los Angeles sent two first-round picks, a third-round pick AND Goff to Detroit in return for Lions QB Matthew Stafford. The Rams had in effect paid a premium to get the Lions to take Goff and his huge contract as part of the deal - ouch.
The acquisition of Stafford is a gamble for McVay. While he has a big-time arm and is capable of putting up gaudy numbers, Stafford is now 33 and has suffered back problems.
Most NFL experts are split on whether the trade will work out. Is Stafford a truly elite QB who has been held back by being a Lion? Or is he incapable of truly elevating a sub-par supporting cast in the way say Brady does? We’ll start to find out in 2021.
If Stafford is what McVay and GM Les Snead clearly think he is, then the Ram offense will be seriously good in 2021.
Defensively L.A. also has blue-chip talent and the team had the league’s #1-ranked unit in 2020.
If you disregard the natural bias towards the quarterback position, defensive tackle Aaron Donald is probably the best player in the NFL. Jalen Ramsey meanwhile (also acquired in a blockbusting trade) might be the league’s best cornerback.
This is a team built to contend - and win - now.
Summary: The Rams are not interested in building quietly through the draft. The mission is to win, and do it quickly. Super Bowl LVI will take place in the team’s home SoFi Stadium in February 2022, and not being there is not an option.
Right now the Rams are trading at 9/5 to win the West and while we have no issues with the fact they head the market, it’s a little too skinny for us. We’re not quite as all in on the Stafford/McVay union as some experts out there.
San Francisco 49ers in 2021
San Francisco is another example of how important quarterback is in the NFL. Just over a year after Garoppolo led San Francisco to a Super Bowl, the Niners effectively made the decision to move on from him.
The move up to take Lance at #3 in the 2021 draft, which came after an unsuccessful run at the unhappy Aaron Rodgers, anoints him as the future of the franchise. The only question that remains is when he takes over the reins.
When Garoppolo is healthy, his win record is exceptional - I’d argue though that is as much down to the supporting cast. It seemed that when it really mattered in that Super Bowl loss to Kansas City, Shanahan didn’t trust him enough to put the game in his hands.
The big issue now though when it comes to Garoppolo is health - he missed most of 2018 with a torn ACL, and a high ankle sprain ruined his 2020 season. Now it’s Trey’s team, Jimmy G is just keeping it warm for him.
That run to the Super Bowl in 2019 was keyed by a dominant ground game, which meant Garoppolo just needed to drive the bus.
The rushing attack should be good again in 2021 - third-round draft choice Trey Sermon from Ohio State adds another intriguing piece to the backfield. The re-signing of tackle Trent Williams and second-round draft choice of Notre Dame guard Aaron Banks shore up the offensive line.
On the defensive side of the ball Bosa is back to terrorise quarterbacks again as part of a unit which still managed to rank in the top five in the league in 2020 despite all those injuries. The defensive front is as good as any in football.
Summary: We would be all over the Niners to go from last to first in the West with just a little more clarity about their quarterback situation. We’re pretty sure Garoppolo will start in Week 1, but what about Week 8? If Lance comes as advertised, the ceiling is sky-high and he could be a Rookie Of The Year contender..
Either way we would sooner be taking 7/4 about San Fran than 9/5 about the Rams right now. Shanahan is such an offensive genius that a healthy portion of teams in the league now run his scheme. He even managed to win games in 2020 with all those injuries and with Nick Mullens under center.
A stellar running game and a defense with Bosa back gives SF an elite base from which to work. Even league-average QB play from Jimmy G (or Lance) will put them in a good spot to contend for the division.
Seattle Seahawks in 2021
Russell Wilson spent most of this week posting Instagram pix from Venice with superstar wife Ciara. Maybe all is sweetness and light again in the Pacific Northwest.
That absolutely wasn’t the case after Seattle’s season ended with a home playoff defeat at the hands of those hated Rams.
While the Seahawks won the division, the team’s offense struggled for the second half the season, leaving Wilson to question Seattle’s commitment to him. Things then got really ugly when his team leaked their preferences for trade destinations (Dallas, Chicago, New Orleans and Las Vegas for reference).
That was just another sub-plot in an offseason which has provided an unprecedented number of storylines about superstar QBs who are either being moved or want to be.
It now looks certain that Wilson will stay in Seattle - for now at least - maybe they’ll keep him happy with another contract extension...
If Wilson turns up with a chip on his shoulder then the Seahawks absolutely can be a contender to go deep into the post-season, not just a division title.
DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett give Wilson bona fide deep threats in the passing game, and second-round Western Michigan WR D’Wayne Eskridge adds to the mix. Chris Carson meanwhile provides balance on the ground.
‘The Legion of Boom’ defense may be long gone but the Seattle front office made a major splash in 2020 by sending two first-round picks to New York for Adams. He delivered 9.5 sacks as the Seattle defense improved in the second half of the season, and should be better still in 2021.
Add Adams to superstar linebacker Bobby Wagner and there is a strong spine for Seattle to build around.
A Seahawk defense which was stingy against the run in 2020 (95 yards per game) was horrific against the pass - particularly early in the year. That will be the major question mark for 2021.
Summary: 2021 is a pivotal year for the Seahawks as the future looks a little rockier the further you look ahead. Without a turnaround, Wilson’s desire to move on may well resurface, while there is no first-round draft pick to utilise in 2022.
The team also will have to spend big to get a contract extension done with Adams after this season - why trade two #1s to get him otherwise.
Basically things could look an awful lot different in 2022, if things go south in ‘21.
We don’t hate the 3/1 about Seattle to win the divison at all. Whether they have improved enough to maintain that advantage over the Rams and Niners is the big question mark.
It adds yet another fascinating plot twist to a division full of them.
Arizona Cardinals in 2021
When former Texas Tech head coach Kliff Kingsbury took possession of the hot seat in Arizona in 2019, he was seen as the franchise’s answer to Sean McVay. Young, cool and with the mind to unlock the potential of an offense.
Two years in though the jury remains out on Kliff, after the Cardinals failed to live up to expectations in year two. An 8-8 record was good enough for third in the division, but it still left most experts feeling underwhelmed.
Arizona started well enough, roaring out to a 6-3 start. But Kingsbury and co then dropped five of their last seven to miss out on a post-season berth.
The Cardinals have the pieces to be an explosive offense - Murray has in DeAndre Hopkins the man who might be the best WR in football. The air attack is backed up by a stout running game.
For whatever reason though it didn’t all click in 2020, and that needs to change this year. The Cards pulled off a great trade to acquire one of the league’s best centers in Rodney Hudson.
Arizona also shelled out $6million to bring in free-agent WR A.J. Green on a one-year deal. It’s difficult to know what the former Bengal has left though after years of declining production in Cincy.
On the defensive side of the ball J.J. Watt is the big-ticket acquisition, though again he is in the twilight of his career. If he is healthy, he should provide a nice pass-rushing compliment to the fit-again Chandler Jones in the Vance Joseph-run defense.
On the back end, Budda Baker is one of the best safeties in the NFL, while former New England Super Bowl hero Malcolm Butler adds to the secondary options.
Summary: The Cardinals have a potentially elite talent at QB, and big names all around their roster. But we still would not be taking 6/1 to win the NFC West.
Arizona failed to take a big step forward in 2020, in fact the team went backwards in the second half of the season. Worryingly, that may be down to coaching and not players.
It’s time for Kingsbury to unlock some of the huge potential in Murray, and get the offense to the level it should be performing. If he can’t, then the Kliff era in the desert may start to look more and more like an exercise in failure.
Odds correct at 1000 BST (09/07/21)
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