NFL Week 5 Midweek Update: Winners, losers and key injuries
Ahead of NFL Week 5, OddsCritic looks at the key injuries and trends to help find the value in the betting markets.
NFL Midweek Update Week 5: Winners, losers and key injuries
We are now four weeks into the 2021 NFL season and it’s now a little easier to predict what might happen.
Trying to make Super 6 picks in the early going was akin to finding a winning Lotto ticket, but now we have almost a quarter of a season of evidence to work with.
The action continues apace with Week 5 getting under way in a little over 24 hours with the Rams @ Seahawks on Thursday Night Football.
Before the big kickoff in the Pacific Northwest, let’s look back at what we learned from Week 4, and ahead to some of the NFL betting pointers for this weekend’s schedule.
Injury Report
The phrase ‘next man up’ is one you’ll hear a lot from NFL coaches. It’s a brutal league and a brutal game, and here are some of the key injuries from Week 4:
Teddy Bridgewater (QB, Denver Broncos): This is really bad news for Denver. Bridgewater had been serviceable enough to help a talent-laden Broncos roster past weak opposition en route to a 3-0 start. But when he went down with a concussion on Sunday, everything changed in a heartbeat. Denver was forced to insert Drew Lock under center - never a good thing - and it dropped a home game vs Baltimore. Now the Broncos head for Pittsburgh with Lock likely to start a showdown with the offensively-challenged Steelers. The over/under for total points is set around the 40 mark - that tells you all you need to know. Grim viewing awaits.
Jimmy Garoppolo (QB, San Francisco 49ers): Garoppolo just can’t seem to stay healthy. The only season he did so far in the Bay Area, he led the Niners to a Super Bowl. Garoppolo’s misfortune continued on Sunday when he left the home loss to Seattle with a calf injury. Reports suggest he still has a chance to face Arizona in a key divisional matchup in Week 5, and that would give San Francisco its best chance to win. Rookie Trey Lance flashed glimpses of his potential in relief on Sunday, but he’s nowhere near the finished article yet.
Trent Williams (OT, San Francisco 49ers): Losing your starting QB and your starting LT is a pretty bad day at the office. But like Garropolo, Williams (shoulder) still has a chance of facing Arizona this weekend. They’ll need him too - we do not like the thought of Lance or a hobbled Jimmy G possibly having to face Chandler Jones, J.J. Watt et al without him.
Jaire Alexander (CB, Green Bay Packers): Green Bay was already without Kevin King (concussion protocol) heading into Sunday’s win over Pittsburgh. And the Packers suffered more secondary misery when they lost Pro Bowl corner Alexander to a shoulder injury. There is no definitive update yet on Alexander’s status for this weekend’s matchup with Cincinnati. But you have to figure Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase are smacking their chops at the prospect of facing a severely weakened Packers defensive backfield.
Joe Mixon (RB, Cincinnati Bengals): The aforementioned Burrow might need to wing it more regularly on Sunday with running back Mixon likely out for the showdown with Green Bay. He sprained his left ankle in the win over Jacksonville, and while there is still a chance Mixon could suit up Sunday, he will not be 100 percent.
D.J. Chark (WR, Jacksonville Jaguars): Things just go from bad to worse in Jacksonville. Another loss, head coach Urban Meyer in the hottest of hot water (more of that later) and now Chark having his 2021 ended by a broken ankle suffered in the 24-21 defeat by the Bengals. Trevor Lawrence must be wondering what on earth he let himself in for right now.
David Montgomery (RB, Chicago Bears): Disastrous news for the Bears, just when Montgomery was on pace for an excellent season. He had 106 yards and a pair of scores when he left the win over Detroit with a knee injury. The good news? It is not a torn ACL. The bad news? He is still likely to miss 4-5 weeks with a sprain. Even more pressure now falls on Justin Fields.
Logan Thomas (TE, Washington Football Team): Washington did get back to .500 with that heart-stopping win in Atlanta last Sunday, but it endured a big loss on the injury front. Thomas is expected to miss multiple weeks after injuring a hamstring early in the game. Not good news for an offense which is already without its starting QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, and has to chase that high-powered Dallas scoring machine in the NFC East.
Trending North
Kyler Murray: We have a new favourite in the race to become the league MVP in 2021 - and his name is Kyler Murray. The #1 overall pick in the 2019 draft is finally starting to deliver regularly on the electric promise which he has teased up to now. He starred again as the Cardinals crushed the previously unbeaten Rams 37-20 in Los Angeles on Sunday, and Arizona now appears to be for real. A big divisional matchup is next this weekend against a weakened San Francisco crew - a great opportunity for Murray to cement those credentials.
Ezekiel Elliott: ‘Zeke’ had a lot of questions to answer coming into 2021. He had been overweight and underwhelming since signing that $90million, six-year contract extension in 2019, and it appeared 2021 might be his last in Dallas without significant improvement. On Sunday Elliott looked more like 2016 Zeke as he rumbled for 143 yards and a score on 20 carries against the best run defense in the NFL. Carolina remember was giving up just 45 rushing yards per game heading into this one. Yes, Elliott’s offensive line was absolutely terrific in blowing open huge holes against the Panthers, but he looks revitalised and with more of the burst which made him the best back around from 2016 to 2018.
DeVonta Smith: Philadelphia’s first-round pick had his best game yet as a pro in a 42-30 loss to Kansas City. He was excellent in snagging seven balls for 122 yards and is really growing into his role. If there is a concern, it’s the absence of much support in the receiving corps. If opposing defenses start to put more focus on stopping him, we’ll get further proof of just how good he is.
Joey Bosa: The Chargers defensive end had a field day on Monday night against the Raiders, terrorising Las Vegas first-round pick Alex Leatherwood in the process. Bosa racked up a sack, a forced fumble and a ton of pressures as Los Angeles prevailed 28-14. He might have had more too but for some questionable non-holding calls which left him angry enough to call out the officiating post-game.
#Chargers DE Joey Bosa on officiating: "Refs are blind. I’m sorry, but you’re blind. Open your eyes and do your job. It’s so bad. It’s unbelievable. …These guys have got to do a better job because it’s been years of terrible missed calls left and right."pic.twitter.com/nxgEGBQqLC
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) October 5, 2021
Cleveland defense: The Browns have a ton of playmaking talent, but they are also built to win up front. Not only do they have that terrific O-line opening holes for Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, they also have a defensive unit which is terrorising opposing play callers. Myles Garrett is red-hot off the edge and the secondary also came to the party in a big way as Cleveland totally shut down Kirk Cousins and the Vikings in Minnesota to improve to 3-1. This team could be scary good come January.
Trending South
Urban Meyer: Urban is trending so far South right, now he might be down past the Equator. Not only are his Jaguars 0-4, he endured off-field embarrassment on another level following the last-second loss to Cincinnati. Instead of flying home with the team, he stayed in Ohio and was caught on camera in a bar dancing with a young woman, while his wife babysat the grandchildren. Cue a social media frenzy, a stern public rebuke from Jags owner Shad Khan and huge question marks about whether Meyer will last even a season in Jacksonville. Welp.
Jaylon Smith: There was shock in many quarters late on Tuesday when the 3-1 Dallas Cowboys cut former Pro Bowl linebacker Smith - but not in the Metroplex. Smith, who was a real feelgood story when Dallas took him in Round 2 of the 2016 Draft despite a devastating knee injury, has fallen off several notches from his stellar play during 2018. He once appeared to be one of the very best at his position, but now he’s a pale shadow. The timing of the move may have shocked even the smartest observers, but it all comes back to Jaylon’s contract. Any injury now would have guaranteed his $9.2million salary for 2022. So the Cowboys save dollars against the cap next year, but those four games Smith played in 2021 ended up costing them a cool $7.2million.
Houston Texans: Kicking a man when he’s down maybe, but the Texans appear to be reverting to what we thought they’d be in 2021. The euphoria of that opening-day win over Lawrence and the Jags appears to have said more about Jacksonville than it did about Houston. The Deshaun Watson situation is still unresolved, Tyrod Taylor is still out, Davis Mills is struggling to complete a pass and they are coming off a 40-0 pounding in Buffalo. 1-16 beckons…
London games: We were surveying the schedule this week and it hit us again as we looked at the opening London game of the 2021 campaign - the 1-3 Jets vs the 1-3 Falcons. Yes the London fans will get to see sensationally talented rookies Zach Wilson and Kyle Pitts, but will the NFL ever deliver a truly marquee matchup into the UK capital? The wait goes on.
Tennessee offense: The Titans somehow managed to hand the Jets a first win of 2021, losing 27-24 after overtime in East Rutherford on Sunday. It was a shocking blow for Tennessee after it had recovered from the opening-day blitz by Arizona to post wins vs Seattle and Indianpolis. The Titans were without both starting WRs A.J. Brown and Julio Jones in New Jersey, while they ended the game with several offensive linemen banged up. Throw in the red-zone issues which plague them, and there are a few things (barring Derrick Henry) which need fixing in Nashville.
Game Of The Week
Bufalo @ Kansas City
- Monday October 11, 0115 BST
Another terrific Sunday night matchup beckons - remember the Chiefs were involved in a beauty in that 36-35 loss to Baltimore in Week 2. This could easily be a preview of the AFC Championship game early next year - remember the Chiefs defeated the Bills last January to progress to Super Bow LV. The Chiefs are still struggling defensively, giving up 30 points to Philly despite beating the Eagles to move to 2-2. Buffalo meanwhile has been utterly dominant in reeling off three convincing wins since that opening-day shocker vs Pittsburgh. Patrick Mahomes vs Josh Allen in primetime, what’s not to like? It should be a terrific game with massive postseason pointers.
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