After his untimely exit from last week’s clash with the Cleveland Browns, the status of reigning Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes has been up in the air for much of the build-up, but it appears at this point that the Kansas City quarterback will be good to go.

Without their star passer, the Chiefs would have gone into the title game as underdogs, but with Mahomes’ availability secure, the Bills have now been handed a 3.5 point head-start by the handicapper, and this should be of interest to us.

Although the brilliance of Mahomes is undeniable, the quarterback will be banged up when he takes to the field on Sunday night and he could even be excused for not being his usual self. On the other hand, Josh Allen is healthy and playing the football of his life at the moment, heading into the biggest game of his career.

Betting against the 2020 Super Bowl champions outright would be foolish, but a stab at Buffalo (+3.5) at a 17/20 best price has to be tempting.

Just three points would have worried me, but the extra half-point makes me feel a lot more confident, as it tips us over an important threshold. Buffalo can now lose via a late Harrison Butker field goal, and we will still be in profit.

The stats are in the Bills’ favour too. Over their 18 games this season, Buffalo are an impressive 12-6 against the spread, whereas the Chiefs have had way less success with handicaps. Despite also racking up 15 wins so far this year, Kansas City are actually only 7-10 against the spread.

In simple terms, Kansas City win the vast majority of their games, but they don’t often put teams away and blow them out. Hence, there’s good reason to believe this one will go down to the wire on Sunday evening.

I do believe the Chiefs will get the job done in the end though, albeit possibly by the skin of their teeth. The game is all set up to be an aerial battle and – although there’s an argument that Buffalo have the best receiver in the game in Stefon Diggs – the sheer arsenal of Kansas City weapons is something to behold.

Tyreek Hill is a point machine, Travis Kelce might be the greatest receiving tight end of all time and the cavalry of Mecole Hardman, Demarcus Robinson and Sammy Watkins (if healthy) isn’t half bad either.

I don’t expect Mahomes to be as active outside the pocket in this game, fresh off the concussion protocol and nursing a toe injury, but there’s no suggestion that he’ll be any less prolific with his arm. If he is able to stay in the game for the full 60 minutes, you’d always like Mahomes to win the duel down the stretch.

Josh Allen won’t be giving this one up easily though, in what is Buffalo’s biggest game in a quarter of a century. The big-arm quarterback will be throwing towards Diggs plenty, and expect Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis to be involved too.

The problem the Bills have faced all year is their lack of productivity on the ground, and that won’t be remedied in a single week. However, a platform to build from is vital to any success the Bills have on Sunday. Therefore, in the heat of battle, I fully expect Allen to take this on himself.

Due to the danger the Buffalo receivers pose, I suspect we’ll see plenty of man-to-man coverage from Kansas City, and that should open up plenty of running lanes and opportunities for Allen to make plays with his legs, especially early.

Allen to score anytime (6/4 best price - 6/5 general) is a nice play you should be considering, but for extra value I really like the idea of Buffalo’s quarterback and talisman setting the tempo for his team with a touchdown in the first quarter.

I don’t think it will be enough when all is said and done, but the Bills won’t go down without a fight, and we are set for an excellent penultimate game of the NFL season.

Best Bet: Josh Allen first Buffalo touchdown scorer at 4/1

Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs reach Super Bowl LV

Odds correct at 1100 GMT (24/01/21)

Kansas City Chiefs v Buffalo Bills RequestABet

Our RequestABet for Kansas City Chiefs v Buffalo Bills

Patrick Mahomes to score a touchdown

Mahomes is the definition of sneaky mobile. You won’t see his athleticism, but he’ll pick up the yards. He now has three rushing touchdowns in his last three playoff games, and he’s good value to score against the Bills. When these two teams met in week six, Mahomes had ten rushing attempts (a season high) for 36 yards. He’s not afraid to run, and this Bills defence has shown weakness to quarterbacks on their feet – they’ve conceded seven rushing TDs to QBs, the joint second most in the NFL. There’s concerns around Mahomes’ health but if he suits up to play, it won’t impact his rushing ability – he’ll leave everything on the field.

Stefon Diggs over 93.5 yards & to score a touchdown

Diggs has been the best receiver in the NFL, especially down the stretch. In the playoffs this season Diggs has produced back-to-back 100+ yard games and has a touchdown in each contest. You have to go all the way back to week four to find a game where Diggs didn’t see at least eight targets. He’s guaranteed to get volume, especially in a game where Kansas are likely to run up the score. The connection between Allen & Diggs is clear to see, and in the big moments you rely on your best players. Expect Diggs to find the end zone and eclipse the yardage line.

Devin Singletary under 40.5 rushing yards

Last week the Bills became the first team in 30 years to not have a rushing attempt in the first quarter of a playoff game. This is the new era of the NFL, you don’t need to establish the run anymore, especially with Josh Allen under centre. Singletary finished the game with seven rushes for 25 yards, as he has been ineffective for weeks now. Through the past six weeks he’s averaging just over six rushing attempts per game, producing an average of 31.5 rushing yards/game. The Bills will likely have to chase Mahomes, and continue with their air-raid offence to keep pace with Kansas. Expect Singletary to be a non-factor in this game.

Head here to back P. Mahomes Anytime Touchdown. S. Diggs Anytime Touchdown & 94+ Rec Yds. D. Singletary Under 41 Rush Yds at 20/1

Odds correct at 1745 GMT (22/01/21)

Touchdown Value: Championship Weekend

By Matt Temple-Marsh

Matt Temple-Marsh picks out his value touchdown scorers for the NFL's Championship Weekend

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes anytime

Mahomes is the definition of sneaky mobile. You won’t see his athleticism, but he’ll pick up the yards. He now has three rushing touchdowns in his last three playoff games, and he’s good value to score against the Bills. When these two teams met in week six, Mahomes had ten rushing attempts (a season high) for 36 yards. He’s not afraid to run, and this Bills defence has shown weakness to quarterbacks on their feet – they’ve conceded seven rushing TDs to QBs, the joint second most in the NFL. This highlights a well-coached defence – picking up all available receivers, but it leaves gaping holes for quarterbacks to capitalise on.

Bills defence/special teams anytime

This Bills’ defence is on fire right now. Last week they held Lamar Jackson’s Ravens to just three points, whilst forcing three fumbles and taking an interception all the way for a touchdown. They show good value this weekend to find the end zone once more. Since mid-December, Mahomes has been loose with the football - throwing four interceptions and dropping three fumbles. If the Bills are to make it to the Super Bowl, they will need a big play from their defence.

Stefon Diggs & Travis Kelce to score a touchdown

In the playoffs this season, Diggs has produced back-to-back 100+ yard games and has a touchdown in each contest. You have to go all the way back to week four to find a game where Diggs didn’t see at least eight targets. He’s guaranteed to get volume, especially in a game where Kansas are likely to run up the score. The connection between Allen & Diggs is clear to see, and in the big moments you rely on your best players.

Travis Kelce has twelve touchdowns on the season, including five in his last five games. Last week he caught eight of his ten targets for 109 yards and a score – when Mahomes needs to move the chains Kelce is always there to make a big play. The Bills have allowed the second most yards in the league to TEs, on top of nine touchdowns to the position. Expect Kelce to find the end zone.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Green Bay Packers

Davante Adams & Leonard Fournette to score a touchdown

Davante Adams is near unguardable. He has 19 touchdowns on the season, and he won’t stop on Sunday. He embarrassed the best corner in the league last weekend, Jalen Ramsey, with a simple pre-snap motion. This Bucs secondary improved last week (against Drew Brees’ questionable arm), but on the season they have sub-par to say the least. Green Bay’s offence is ferocious, and Adams will get the volume.

Fournette has scored two touchdowns in his last two games, carrying the ball 36 times for 156 yards whilst making nine catches for 83 yards. Ronald Jones is still practicing in a limited capacity, so expect Fournette to see this volume against Green Bay. On the season the Packers have conceded 20 total touchdowns to running backs, and have allowed a rushing touchdown in each of their last five games. The Rams never looked like they had a chance against the Packers, yet Cam Akers still managed to produce 90 rushing yards & score a touchdown.

Jamaal Williams to score anytime

Whilst Aaron Jones may get the bulk of the carries, it is Jamaal Williams who represents the most value. Last weekend Williams saw 12 carries, just two less than Jones. Crucially, six of those 12 carries came within the red zone – having the most red zone touches out of any Packer. Green Bay will continue to rotate their running backs – this 3/1 price for Williams is huge.

Odds correct at 1730 GMT (23/01/21)

NFC Championship Game - Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Green Bay Packers

Sunday 20:05 GMT on Sky Sports NFL
Match odds: Packers 8/15 | Buccaneers 6/4

By Ross Williams

Davante Adams celebrates with Aaron Rodgers

Two of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history going head-to-head in an NFC title game at Lambeau Field? Count me in.

In years gone by, this clash between the Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady would almost certainly be the later game in the Championship Sunday window, but 2021 feels like a passing of the torch moment, with the younger duo of Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes taking centre stage in the primetime slot.

This works well for us in the UK though, as it means the kick-off time in Green Bay is extremely palatable, giving Monday morning workers the chance to watch the entirety of this blockbuster battle in the frozen tundra.

It’s impossible to analyse this match-up without first referencing the regular season meeting between these two sides in week six. How much we can truly take from a game that took place in mid-October is up for debate, but it would be amiss to not discuss what happened at Raymond James Stadium that day.

There’s no doubt that it was Green Bay’s lowest point of the season.

The Packers actually started the game on the front foot and picked up a 10-point lead in the first quarter, but from there, the ceiling fell down around Matt LaFleur’s team.

Tampa Bay – who were actually coming off a very disappointing primetime loss to Chicago at the time – came back at the Packers with a vengeance, scoring an incredible 38 unanswered points in what became one of the blowouts of the season.

The most interesting thing to take away from that particular game, in my opinion, was the performance of Tampa Bay’s secondary.

That unit has been much maligned this season, and even I have regularly referenced it as the Bucs’ Achilles heel in this very column. However, in this one game at least, Tampa Bay’s cornerbacks shined.

Carlton Davis had a big hand in holding Davante Adams to 61 yards on the day – which is about as well as anyone has done all season – and Tampa were able to pick off Rodgers twice over the course of the 60 minutes. Two-interception games for Rodgers are akin to flying pigs, and even more shocking was the fact that Jamel Dean returned the first of those interceptions to the end zone – just the third pick-six of Rodgers’ long and ridiculously efficient career.

Going into Sunday’s title game, pundits will be keen to factor in the gusty wind that was blowing in Tampa Bay that afternoon, and the fact that Rodgers began exceeding even his own lofty standards in the second half of the season – performances that have him firmly in the driving seat to collect his third NFL MVP award in a fortnight’s time.

All of this is true, but week six should still provide the Bucs’ secondary with some much-needed hope that they can provide adequate opposition to the Packers’ explosive offensive arsenal on Sunday.

It is vital that Tampa Bay channel that performance, and use the confidence they will have gained from dominating (an admittedly retiring) Drew Brees in the Superdome last week. The only way the Buccaneers can beat the Packers at Lambeau is by taking the ball out of Rodgers’ hands as much as possible.

The policy worked well in the Divisional Round, as Tom Brady expertly turned New Orleans turnovers into crucial points all night long, but Green Bay are a different animal.

As far as offences go, we have rarely seen a better-oiled machine than this current incarnation of the Green Bay Packers. Rodgers and Adams are the undoubted stars of the show, but the supporting cast are nothing short of spectacular.

The Packers’ offensive line matched up incredibly well against the NFL’s top-ranked defence last week, and it really was a joy to behold. Rodgers left the field at the end of the game wearing a jersey that looked fresh off the rack, and if we see something similar on Sunday, Green Bay will be stamping their tickets to the Super Bowl.

Allen Lazard was the most productive Packers receiver against Los Angeles, but the brilliance of LaFleur’s scheme means any one of the Green Bay weapons could be the difference against Tampa Bay. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is a bonafide deep threat nowadays, and emerging tight end Robert Tonyan has quickly become one of the league’s premier talents at the position.

Not to mention Aaron Jones, a running back with an astonishing 29 touchdowns to his name over the last two seasons.

It’s a ‘who’s who’ of devastating talent, and with how well they’ve played down the stretch, I struggle to foresee the Tampa defence replicating their week six performance, despite their best efforts.

All will not be lost for the Buccaneers if Green Bay do get on top early, of course.

Although I do feel it will require a year-best performance from the whole Tampa Bay roster to secure a Super Bowl berth, there’s no question that Tampa Bay’s offence will pick up the slack if their defensive counterparts fail to deliver the goods, albeit in vain.

In their last five games, Tampa have averaged a whopping 36.6 points, so don’t be fooled into thinking the Bucs will simply fade if Green Bay pull away in the opening stages.

Tom Brady may not complete the fairy tale of delivering the first ever ‘home’ Super Bowl to his Buccaneers, but he’ll be damned if he doesn’t give it everything, and there’s no way his head coach Bruce Arians will stand in his way.

Arians offences are renowned for airing the ball out, so we can expect plenty of fireworks down the stretch in this game. With Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown by his side, Brady will give this Packers defence a real run for its money, and I like Godwin (6/4 anytime TD) in particular to make it onto the scoresheet at least once

This one will not go out with a whimper.

With home-field advantage for the first time in an NFC title game, Aaron Rodgers should do enough to guide Green Bay to their first Super Bowl in ten years, but I suspect we’ll see plenty of points before the clock runs down to zero, and I find it hard to believe that Brady will be more than a touchdown behind when all is said and done.

Best Bet: Green Bay Packers (-3.5) to win and Over 52.5 Total Match Points at 11/4

Prediction: Green Bay Packers reach Super Bowl LV

Odds correct at 1700 GMT (22/01/21)

Green Bay Packers v Tampa Bay Buccaneers RequestABet

Our RequestABet for Green Bay Packers v Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Leonard Fournette over 42.5 rushing yards & to score a touchdown

“Playoff Lenny” is here. Fournette has scored two touchdowns in his last two games, carrying the ball 36 times for 156 yards whilst making nine catches for 83 yards. Ronald Jones is still practicing in a limited capacity, so we can continue to expect solid volume for the former Jacksonville Jaguar. On the season the Packers have conceded 20 total touchdowns to running backs, and have allowed a rushing touchdown in each of their last five games. The Rams never looked like they had a chance against the Packers, yet Cam Akers still managed to produce 90 rushing yards & score a touchdown.

Robert Tonyan over 32.5+ receiving yards & to score a touchdown

Tonyan is a touchdown machine. He has eleven total TDs on the season, trailing only Travis Kelce out of all tight ends. Last week he caught all four of his targets for an impressive 60 yards, and he shows real value to exceed his yardage line again. The Bucs defence is fierce on paper, but tight ends have been their hindrance. They’ve allowed nine total touchdowns to the position, on top of 934 yards – an average of 51 yards/game to TEs. The defence’s attention will be drawn to trying to slow down Davante Adams, leaving Tonyan some open looks.

Mike Evans under 62.5 receiving yards

Mike Evans has been the definition of boom or bust this season, producing either stellar games or duds. Last week has caught one of his three targets, going for just three yards for the entire game. He’s had five games where he’s eclipsed 100 yards, and four games with under 10 yards - typically when Evans faces a true #1 corner, he struggles to say the least. If we look back to week six, where the Bucs shocked the Packers 38-10, Jaire Alexander held Evans to just one catch for 10 yards. In three career games against Green Bay, Evans is averaging 2.3 receptions & 30.7 yards. Expect Alexander to keep Evans in check.

Head here to back L. Fournette 43+ Rush Yds & to score a TD, R. Tonyan 33+ Rec Yds & to score a TD & M. Evans Under 63 Rec Yds

Odds correct at 1100 GMT (24/01/21)

Responsible gambling

We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit begambleaware.org.

Further support and information can be found at GamCare and gamblingtherapy.org.

Like what you've read?

Link

Join for free!

Access to exclusive features all for FREE - No monthly subscription fee

Race Replays

My stable horse tracker

Offers and prize draws

Exclusive content

MY SPORTING LIFE

Download the app

Football data provided by

Horse Racing Powered By

Featured Events Gold Chevron

Cheltenham Grand National Royal Ascot

About us

About Us Careers My Sporting Life Sporting Life app Modern Slavery Statement

Support

Betting & Free Bets Gold Chevron

Racecards Fast Results Scores & Fixtures Vidiprinter My Stable Free Bets

Tips

Racing Tips Football Tips Golf Tips Darts Tips Snooker Tips Tipping Records