NFL betting tips: Best bets, predictions and picks for Week 7
After registering profits of more than four points for two successive weekends, resident NFL tipster Ross Williams returns to build on a superb start to the 2021 season.
NFL Betting Tips: Week 7
2pt Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns at 4/5 (Paddy Power/Betfair)
2pt Green Bay Packers (-8) to beat the Washington Football Team at 10/11 (General)
2pt DeAndre Hopkins (Arizona Cardinals) to score a touchdown at 21/20 (bet365)
1pt Los Angeles Rams defense/special teams to score a touchdown at 5/1 (Paddy Power/Betfair)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Tennessee Titans
- When: Sunday at 18:00 BST
- TV: NFL Red Zone on Sky Sports Mix/Free to watch on Sky Bet
Patrick Mahomes hasn’t had the most glittering start to his 2021 season – at least if you note his turnover numbers – but he still sits atop the passing touchdown charts as we enter week seven.
The Chiefs defense has faltered so far this year, putting a little extra emphasis on Mahomes’ passing performances as the star quarterback has been forced to dig his team out of some precarious holes.
This has resulted in a few uncharacteristic mistakes from the former NFL MVP, but it has also created production, and I imagine that will continue on the road in Nashville this weekend.
Tennessee are another team that hasn’t fared too well defensively thus far, and especially against the pass. There were question marks over the Titans secondary before the season began, and those questions are only going to be asked more and more as the season progresses with first-round draft pick Caleb Farley now on the sidelines indefinitely.
A defense that ranks 23rd in the league on passing touchdowns and 24th in yardage should be an ideal match-up for Mahomes and it’s why I’m keen on him going over the 2.5 passing touchdowns mark. He’s averaging three touchdowns a game with 18 on the board through six weeks and this seems like an encounter where he’ll once again have to create some magic through the air.
The Titans have proved they can score points so this shouldn’t be a game where Kansas City put the proverbial cue on the rack, and the Chiefs will be eager to make a statement after Tennessee upset the Buffalo Bills last week.
Best Bet: Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns at 4/5
Washington Football Team @ Green Bay Packers
- When: Sunday at 18:00 BST
- TV: NFL Red Zone on Sky Sports Mix/Free to watch on Sky Bet
It’s not spoken about enough, but the Green Bay Packers at home might be the best bet in football.
Under the stewardship of Matt LeFleur in the past two and a bit seasons, the Packers have lost just seven games in the regular season, and remarkably only two of those losses have come at Lambeau Field.
In the famous surroundings of Green Bay, the Packers are devastatingly good and they’ve notched up a 16-2 record in their past 18 games on home soil.
With this in mind, the hefty eight-point spread in this game seems fair and perfectly backable, when you also consider the form of Green Bay’s opponents this weekend.
The Washington Football Team have been a real disappointment so far. A side with real promise heading into the season, they lost quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick early on and have never really recovered, despite the best efforts of Taylor Heinicke under centre.
The real problem has been the poor play of a defense that should be so much better. On name value alone, there’s talent galore within Washington’s defensive unit, but they just haven’t lived up to expectations. An outfit that was widely expected to be top-10 in the NFL is currently the worst defense in the league in terms of points conceded, and only the leaky Seattle Seahawks are giving up more yardage per game.
This is all music to the ears of Aaron Rodgers and co, who will view Sunday’s clash as another opportunity to continue their under-the-radar march to the top of the NFC. Washington’s last three defeats have all been by double figures, and I predict that worrying trend will continue this weekend.
Best Bet: Green Bay Packers (-8) to beat the Washington Football Team at 10/11
Houston Texans @ Arizona Cardinals
- When: Sunday at 21:25 BST
- TV: NFL Red Zone on Sky Sports Mix/Free to watch on Sky Bet
It’s not quite Halloween yet, but Houston’s clash with Arizona on Sunday evening could be one to watch between your fingers.
On paper it’s the biggest mismatch of the season so far – with a 17.5 point handicap to reflect that – so the game doesn’t appeal too much as a contest. However, it will be must-watch due to the recent transactional history between the two franchises.
Over the past 18 months, Houston have allowed two of their greatest-ever players to leave for the desert, in moves that have puzzled just about everyone in the game. Most recently, J.J. Watt was allowed to leave Texas in search of a Super Bowl ring and the ferocious defensive end won’t be going lightly on his former employers on Sunday, a week removed from his best performance in a Cardinals jersey.
Then there’s DeAndre Hopkins, the All-Pro wide receiver that was involved in one of the strangest (and most lopsided) trades in NFL history. A trade that many – quite rightly – deemed disrespectful and a moment that Hopkins certainly hasn’t forgotten.
The man wearing number ten will have had this game circled on his calendar for months and it goes without saying that he’ll be demanding the ball from his quarterback Kyler Murray each and every time the Cardinals approach the redzone.
Hopkins is averaging a touchdown per game so far this season and I’d be very surprised if he doesn’t continue on the same trajectory as he attempts to show the Texans exactly the kind of talent they threw away.
This one should be a total blowout, with Hopkins on the board at least once.
Best Bet: DeAndre Hopkins (Cardinals) to score a touchdown at 21/20
Detroit Lions @ Los Angeles Rams
- When: Sunday at 21:05 BST
- TV: NFL Red Zone on Sky Sports Mix/Free to watch on Sky Bet
Much like the game in Arizona, this one could get really ugly, quick. The only winless team in the NFL travel to Los Angeles in the hope of a miracle, but I can only see the Lions returning to the Motor City on Monday with their tails between their legs.
The Lions have hung around in a few games, but Joe Burrow’s surgical execution of them last week could well be a sign of things to come at SoFi Stadium. The Bengals dominated Detroit in every facet, and the Rams are most likely even better at exploiting the kind of weaknesses the Lions have.
With another wide spread, there’s little value in the result of this game with a Rams win so likely, but there are intriguing possibilities within the manner of the LA victory. Detroit throw the ball a lot, and that could be a big, big problem.
There was never going to be a good time for Jared Goff to return to Los Angeles after his departure last season, but it doesn’t get much worse than leading an 0-6 team, fresh off a 23-point defeat and a public verbal lashing from his head coach Dan Campbell.
Essentially, Campbell asked for more from his quarterback, but I can’t help but feel the timing of the outburst was all wrong, perhaps pointing to the naivety of the rookie head coach. His quarterback’s mind would have been full to bursting this week regardless of said press conference, but these comments might just cause a meltdown.
Goff hasn’t played badly so far this year, but at his core he’s a fundamentally flawed quarterback with a low ceiling. Everyone knows that, except apparently the team that traded for him.
I don’t believe there’s much more that Goff can do from a talent perspective, so it’s fair to assume that he will just take the advice literally and throw the ball more on Sunday. The problem is, Goff is already fifth in the NFL in terms of passing attempts.
This means the ball is going to be in the air and up for grabs for large portions of Sunday’s game, which seems like a recipe for disaster. The more Goff throws the ball, the higher the likelihood of mistakes and turnover opportunities.
The Rams defense ranks fourth in the NFL with eight interceptions already this season, and it seems incredibly likely that total will be nearer, or into, double figures by the end of this game.
Los Angeles have playmakers all over the defensive unit and, what’s more, almost all of them have first-hand experience of practising against Goff on a daily basis. They know his quirks, they know his tells.
The ball-hawking secondary, led by the charismatic Jalen Ramsey, will be hunting the mistake on Sunday and, at a nice price of 5/1, I fancy at least one of those mistakes to be turned into six points.
Best Bet: Los Angeles Rams D/ST to score a touchdown at 5/1
Odds correct as of 2200 (22/10/21)
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