Patrick Mahomes in action for Kansas City Chiefs
OddsCritic looks at the AFC West

AFC West offseason update and odds: Difficult to see past Chiefs


The Kansas City Chiefs didn’t just win the AFC West in 2020, they absolutely strolled it.

Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and co finished six games clear of Las Vegas with the Chargers and Broncos bringing up the rear.

No surprise then that KC is a red-hot favourite on NFL betting lines to repeat in 2021, but once you’ve got that out of the way, it starts to get a little bit weird.

Yes the Chargers have Justin Herbert coming off a stellar rookie year, and yes Denver has a talent-laden roster. But we still can’t figure out why Las Vegas - second in the West in 2020 - is three times their odds.

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The bigger picture question of course - ever since he signed that blockbusting 10-year $450million deal - is whether the Chiefs now have the cap room now to surround Mahomes with enough talent to win more Super Bowls.

When Patrick won his first Lombardi Trophy he was still on his rookie deal - terrific value for KC. Now the rules are very different and he accounts for around 25 percent of the Chiefs cap.

KC must balance the benefit of having the most talented quarterback in the NFL with the need to still build a roster capable of challenging for championships.

As we saw in 2020, just having Mahomes is not enough. He was battered and befuddled in that 31-9 defeat by the Bucs in Super Bowl LV. How will they rebound?

AFC West in 2020: KC in a one-horse race

Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes
Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes

If you’re looking for a segment here which talks about the race for the AFC West title in 2020, you are about to be disappointed. There wasn’t one.

While the Raiders started well, beating KC en route to a 6-3 start, they imploded after losing the return game in Week 11 and collapsed to an 8-8 finish. The Chiefs meanwhile were virtually perfect in registering a 14-2 season and clinching the first seed for the AFC playoffs.

The Chargers did flash potential for the future, largely in the shape of a terrific rookie season for quarterback Justin Herbert (AP Offensive Rookie Of The Year). Los Angeles was 3-9 and officially out of post-season contention though before it reeled off four wins to end the season.

Some of the hope for the Chargers comes from how close it was to being significantly better. It blew a series of fourth-quarter leads and several of those losses were close.

Denver, despite building a roster full of promise, was decimated by injuries and hurt by poor quarterback play and a below-par defense. All those factors need to be very different in 2021 if the Broncos are to get anywhere near the Chiefs as the class of the West.

Final Standings

  1. 14-2 Kansas City Chiefs
  2. 8-8 Las Vegas Raiders
  3. 7-9 Los Angeles Chargers
  4. 5-11 Denver Broncos

Kansas City Chiefs in 2021

  • AFC West Odds: 1/3
  • Super Bowl Odds: 9/2
  • Head Coach: Andy Reid
Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid
Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid

The Chiefs won 16 games in 2020 and went to another Super Bowl. So why wouldn’t they be heavy favourites to win a division which wasn’t even competitive last year?

There is a seismic shift needed to make it a race in ‘21, in terms of regression by Andy Reid’s men and improvement elsewhere in the division. But some experts still believe it might happen.

We got a high-profile sneak peek at what could happen in KC during Super Bowl LV. Mahomes had a sieve for an offensive line and took a horrendous beating from a stellar Tampa D. Final = 31-9 Tampa.

That showed that Mahomes alone cannot guarantee a championship, and the Chiefs must at the very least protect him adequately if they hope to play in the biggest game of all for the third consecutive season.

Colin Cowherd reveals his first official AFC predictions for the 2021 NFL season | NFL | THE HERD

Not surprising then that Kansas City made a determined effort to make improvements to its offensive line in the offseason. Out went Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz, while in came multiple new faces.

Tackle Orlando Brown Jr arrived via a blockbusting trade with Baltimore, while one of the league’s best guards - former Patriot Joe Thuney - inked a five-year $80million deal in free agency.

The Chiefs were not done there either, as they spent a premium draft pick (Round 2) on Oklahoma center Creed Humphrey. Meanwhile guard Laurent Duvernay-Tardif - an optout in 2020 - will return this year.

Finally, the Chiefs took a chance that Kyle Long - coming off a year in “retirement” - can come back refreshed and healthy by signing the former Bear to a cost-effective one-year deal.

These changes not only give Kansas City a much-needed injection of talent up front, they also offer great versatility. A huge step in the right direction to fix a pronounced 2020 weakness.

There are no such worries of course at skill positions, Mahomes will again have two of the most potent receiving weapons around in WR Tyreek Hill and all-world TE Travis Kelce.

Most teams in the NFL who throw a ton of dollars at offense (nothing wrong with that) end up being horribly exposed on defense.

Patrick Mahomes in action against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Patrick Mahomes in action against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

There is no doubt that it is the team’s weakness (compared to that high-powered offensive attack), with some key question marks. Notably the status of star defensive end Frank Clark, arrested in the offseason for illegal possession of a concealed firearm in a vehicle.

Kansas City did use its top draft pick - a second-rounder - to snag Missouri linebacker Nick Bolton, while Florida State defensive end Joshua Kaindoh was selected in the fourth.

The Chiefs ranked exactly middle of the pack for total defense in 2020 - all that is needed to go deep into the playoffs if you have the ability to score at will.

There are concerns in the secondary despite the team trading for Vikings corner Brian Hughes. The Chiefs did not address corner at all in the draft.

Summary: The Chiefs are all in on a third consecutive Super Bowl visit, and their entire MO is to build around Mahomes - why wouldn’t it be at $45m per season?

The moves it has made to rebuild the offensive line are significant and if they do the job, expect KC to be unstoppable again.

The defense is another matter, we’ve outlined the concerns. But the more we think about this, we cannot see past another AFC West title at the very least. Those 1/3 odds are not great for punters - but the price is entirely merited.

Las Vegas Raiders in 2021

  • AFC West Odds: 18/1
  • Super Bowl Odds: 66/1
  • Head Coach: Jon Gruden
Las Vegas Raiders head coach Jon Gruden
Las Vegas Raiders head coach Jon Gruden

Ok we’ll be totally transparent up front, we’ve never been fans of Jon Gruden as a head coach. And nothing we’ve seen in Las Vegas has changed that.

That Super Bowl Gruden won in Tampa in early 2003 had way more to do with the fearsome defense Tony Dungy built than anything ‘Chucky’ did after he walked into the building.

But despite our disdain for Gruden, we still don’t get that massive odds differential between his team and those of Los Angeles and particularly Denver.

One reason is recency bias - Las Vegas dropped five of its last seven games in 2020 after an excellent 6-3 start which included a win over the mighty Chiefs.

Despite that we’d still take Derek Carr over anything Denver has to offer at quarterback right now, and that same recency bias plays massively into the Chargers’ skinny price to win the West.

Derek Carr wants to be a Las Vegas Raider 'for life' | Brother From Another

Don’t get us wrong, this is all a bit moot as we do not expect the Raiders to come close to winning the division, we just don’t agree with the odds.

It was Carr’s groin injury late last season which really ended any hopes of a winning record for Las Vegas - before that he’d been excellent, passing for more than 4000 yards as well as 27 touchdowns (only 9 INTs). Those Raider fans who are still hating on him? They’d miss him if he was gone.

Derek was super-accurate too, completing more than 67 percent of his passes, and a repeat of those stats in 2021 will set the Raiders up nicely to at very least challenge for #2 in the West.

Carr will once again be throwing to one of the league’s best tight ends in the sensationally talented Darren Waller, while Josh Jacobs (with Kenyan Drake now behind him) give the Raiders a respectable ground game.

It would be nice if Las Vegas had somebody on the outside who can really terrify defenses, it’s been a while since they had a 1000-yard wideout. Time for the likes of 2020 first-round pick Henry Ruggs to step up and produce. And to think the Raiders could have had CeeDee Lamb, Jerry Jeudy OR Justin Jefferson instead.

The big concern on offense for the Raiders is the line - in short they blew up a unit which had been one of the better groups in the league. Out went Rodney Hudson, Trent Brown and Gabe Jackson, to be replaced by three new starters.

Derek Carr in action for Las Vegas Raiders
Derek Carr in action for Las Vegas Raiders

The most high-profile offseason move Vegas made was to take Alabama OT Alex Leatherwood with the 17th overall selection in the draft. Seen as a reach by many draftniks, he will likely define this class for hugely respected GM Mike Mayock.

While the turnover on that line is likely to be giving Carr sleepless nights right now, he is probably wondering when the defense is going to start giving him some help too.

The Raiders ranked 25th in total defense in 2020, with the secondary in particular being torched on a regular basis.

Las Vegas did at least make some moves to improve that unit, inking Chargers vet Casey Hayward to a one-year deal worth $4million.

But it was the draft where the Raiders deployed most resources by taking four defensive backs - headed by TCU safety Trevon Moehrig. He needs to be a cornerstone piece pretty quickly.

Summary: It wouldn’t be normal if nobody was hammering Gruden and the Raiders - we’re prone to it ourselves. But when the team signed ‘Chucky’ to that 10-year $100million contract it was to return this team to the land of the living.

We are now heading into year four of the second Gruden era with the Raiders, and still the team awaits a return to the post-season despite annual improvement in the wins column. Better again will be expected in 2021.

A winning record will demand another fine season from Carr, more big-play capability outside, those O-line changes to gel quickly and the defense to step up. If not, expect more disappointment on the Strip.

Los Angeles Chargers in 2021

  • AFC West Odds: 5/1
  • Super Bowl Odds: 28/1
  • Head Coach: Brandon Staley
Justin Herbert throws the ball during mandatory minicamp
Justin Herbert throws the ball during mandatory minicamp

New Chargers Brandon Staley HC is already favourite in the betting Stateside to be Coach Of The Year in 2021.

Now we will caveat by saying it’s 14/1 the field, but it does tell you something about the situation Staley is inheriting.

Staley, who coached the Rams defense to be the best in the NFL in 2020, hardly had any upheaval moving jobs - the Chargers and the Rams now share SoFi Stadium in Inglewood. Which just happens to be the host site for Super Bowl LVI next February.

The potential which surely factored into Staley taking the job is headlined by second-year quarterback Justin Herbert. He was excellent as a rookie, starting 15 games and throwing for more than 4300 yards and 31 touchdowns.

Herbert’s performances didn’t always translate to wins, but the way Los Angeles finished the season with four straight wins has excitement high among Bolts fans heading into 2021.

Justin has plenty of weapons to work with, headed by WR Keenan Allen, while the departed Hunter Henry is replaced at TE by Jared Cook - a smart one-year signing by the front office.

Former Packer Corey Linsley (five years, $62.5million) was one of the league’s best centers in 2020 and should anchor the offensive line moving forward, while former Pittsburgh guard Matt Feiler (three years, $21million) further beefs up the front.

Stephen A. reacts to the Chargers firing head coach Anthony Lynn | First Take

As well as having offensive firepower to burn, the Chargers also had a top-10 defense in 2020, anchored by that beast of a defensive end Joey Bosa. When healthy he is one of the league’s best.

On the back end the Chargers have another potential superstar in safety Derwin James - IF he can stay healthy. He has hardly figured in the last two seasons after a stellar rookie year in 2018, but he should be back to full fitness to start 2021.

Los Angeles topped off a fine offseason by earning plaudits for a good draft, kicked off by having highly-rated Northwestern OT Rashawn Slater fall into their laps at #13 overall.

Their second-round pick also might turn out to be a steal - Florida State CB Asante Samuel Jr (son of the former Patriots standout), while Round 3 brought a pair of new weapons for Herbert in Tennessee WR Josh Palmer and Georgia TE Tre’ McKitty.

Summary: If you’re looking for a reason the Chargers were 3-9 and out of the playoffs before they finally got on track, the firing of Anthony Lynn and hire of Staley should give you a clue.

Lynn was the fall guy for failing to maximise all that potential, and now it falls on Staley’s shoulders to get the desired results from an exciting roster.

Unless they find crazy ways to lose again this should be a winning team in 2021. Is it good enough to dethrone the Chiefs? That’s a big ask.

Denver Broncos in 2021

  • AFC West Odds: 11/2
  • Super Bowl Odds: 25/1
  • Head Coach: Vic Fangio
Head coach Vic Fangio of the Denver Broncos
Head coach Vic Fangio of the Denver Broncos

It’s almost criminal that a Denver roster with so much assembled talent could end up 5-11 and in last place in the AFC West. But that’s what injuries and the lack of a franchise QB will do to you.

Denver will hope to have better luck with health in 2021, but the question mark at the game’s most important position remains.

Trading for Teddy Bridgewater from Carolina at least provides competition for 2019 second-round draft pick Drew Lock. But he’s not the long-term answer.

There is still of course the possibility that Denver will end up acquiring last year’s MVP in Aaron Rodgers. He remains unhappy in Green Bay, and at some stage one of the two parties will need to budge.

The last time John Elway and Denver won a Super Bowl, it came from going all out to get the best QB on the market - then free agent Peyton Manning. Rodgers is not exactly free - but he would instantly transform the Broncos to challenging KC for favouritism in the AFC West.

That is how good the rest of this Denver roster is. Packed with studs, but without that established signal caller to convert potential into wins.

This is Why The Denver Broncos had an EPIC 2021 NFL Draft | CBS Sports HQ

Lock was disappointing at best in 2020 after a promising rookie year. Just 4-9 as a starter despite having weapons like Jerry Jeudy, Noah Fant and KJ Hamler surrounding him. He did lose Courtland Sutton for most of the year though. Bridgewater will push him this offseason.

The backfield should be further improved in 2021 with North Carolina RB Javonte Williams selected in the second round of the draft. He should pair with Melvin Gordon to give the Broncos a powerful one-two punch.

On the defensive side of the ball, another man who saw 2020 ruined by injury was former Super Bowl MVP Von Miller. If he’s back to full health and firing on all cylinders along with Bradley Chubb, this Denver defense could be really good in 2021.

Ironically, since defense is head coach Fangio’s speciality, it was that side of the ball that really let the Broncos down last season. That has to change in 2021.

While Miller and Chubb should provide pass rush, the back end of the Denver D also had good news in the offseason. The Broncos locked up star safety Justin Simmons for the long-term, while drafting one of the best cornerbacks in the draft in Patrick Surtain II.

Free agency brought further reinforcements for the secondary in former Washington corner Ronald Darby and former Bear Kyle Fuller.

Summary: Fangio’s job is likely on the line in Denver in 2021. Without significant improvement on last season, it is difficult to see him getting another chance to gel with new GM George Paton.

The decision to pass on Ohio State QB Justin Fields (later selected by Chicago) in the draft will be analysed heavily. Surtain is really good, but you do not pass on a franchise quarterback.

So maybe Denver really is bought into Lock and the belief that 2020 was a blip? Or maybe it really does believe Rodgers can be prised away from Lambeau.

Either way, the rest of the house is built. Just how happy it is in the coming months will depend almost entirely on the starting quarterback. A tale as old as time...


Odds correct at 0830 BST (23/07/21)

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