Golf betting tips: Preview and best bets for KPMG Women's PGA Championship
Matt Cooper previews the KPMG Championship, where Ariya Jutanugarn is capable of ending a run of big-priced major champions.
Golf betting tips: KPMG Women's PGA Championship
2pts e.w. Ariya Jutanugarn at 25/1 (Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Lizette Salas at 70/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Charley Hull at 80/1 (Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
0.5pt e.w. Hinako Shibuno at 150/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
0.5pt e.w. Min Lee at 150/1 (Sky Bet, Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
Something occurred to me shortly after the stunning triumph of Yuka Saso in US Women’s Open earlier this month. The first was the bleeding obvious: it was yet another huge-priced winner of a women’s major championship, a run that stretches back to the summer of 2019.
It started at Woburn, host of that year’s Women’s Open, which witnessed the startling victory of Japan’s Hinako Shubuno at 200/1. The schedule, like life, was then disrupted by Covid and so the 2020 major season started back in the UK – with Sophia Popov’s 80/1 success at Royal Troon.
A month later Mirim Lee landed the ANA Inspiration at 750/1, A Lim Kim claimed the US Open at the end of the year at 150/1, Patty Tavatanakit opened 2021 with 150/1 success in the ANA Inspiration, and then Saso was yet another 200/1 triumph. In that spell only Sei Young Kim’s success in this event last autumn at 16/1 was anything other than a shock.
Of the surprises, only Lee didn’t have form of any sort (current form, that is; she had excellent course form). The others had dropped hints. Shibuno had never been seen outside Japan, but she had been a two-time winner that summer on her home circuit. Similarly, Kim won fresh off four top-10 KLPGA finishes in a row, Popov had been on fire playing the second tier Symetra Tour (as well as American minor tours), while Saso was another two-time winner in Japan (albeit last summer) in decent enough, if not outrageous, form. Tavatakankit had a major championship top-five in her back catalogue and had flirted with the lead in the weeks before her breakthrough.
The clues were there, so kudos to those who followed the trail and who heeded the lesson that contending anywhere is never to be overlooked.
However, this was not the realisation I spoke of. Instead, it suddenly dawned on me that there has been a second trend these last two years, one which the surprises have rather over-shadowed, and that is: the top players in the world are consistently under-performing in the majors in one of two ways.
There are those who just don’t make as many top-fives as they ought to: Nelly Korda has three in 25 majors, her sister Jessica three in 51, Danielle Kang three in 50, Minjee Lee two in 34. And there are also those who make plenty of top-10s, but haven’t won for a long time: Shanshan Feng’s drought stretches back to 2012, Lexi Thompson’s to 2014, Inbee Park 2015, Lydia Ko and Brooke Henderson both 2016, So Yeon Ryu 2017.
None of this would matter except that they all sit at or near the top of the market at 25/1 and less. Following them is an expensive business (and highlighting the fact is probably invoking sod’s law, so perhaps bear that in mind this week).
Anyway, enough with the intro, to the third major of the women’s calendar – the KPMG Championship, hosted this week by the Highland Course at Atlanta Athletic Club, a track that owes much to the Jones family with Robert Trent Jones Sr responsible for most of it (he tweaked a few original holes and built the rest) and Rees Jones undertaking a renovation. It will be familiar to many as the host of the 2001 and 2011 PGA Championship.
Talking an online tour of the course at the weekend a notion came to me, one that lots of Google image searching backed up. Just to be on the safe side I went on YouTube and watched a video of "Jason Dafner's" final round in 2011. The notion was stubbornly still there. For further confirmation I took to the 2001 and 2011 PGA Championship scoring and noted the names of European Tour performers who thrived...
In the first event there were not many. But Niclas Fasth got off to a quick start and hung around for 54 holes. There was more joy to be had 10 years later: Anders Hansen third, Robert Karlsson fourth, Adam Scott seventh, Luke Donald and Lee Westwood tied eighth, Trevor Immelman T12th, Brian Davis T19th.
And then I cross-referenced them with my little whim, that the lie of the land, the shaping of the fairways and greens, the bunkering, the way the course fitted my eye – it reminded me of the Marquess Course at Woburn.
Fasth was sixth on that English course in 2001 (same year even), Hansen didn’t do much on the Marquess but has been fourth on Woburn’s Duke’s track, Karlsson has been second and T13th on the Marquess, Scott T14th (and second after 18 holes), Westwood eighth and T17th, Donald fifth, Immelman T11th, even Davis has a T34th that was T11th with 18 holes to play.
Also, Ian Poulter wasn’t in great form heading to Atlanta that summer. He’d missed the cut at the Open and almost finished last at Firestone, but the Woburn member who’s been second on the Marquess scrapped for T39th – and then missed two of his next three cuts.
So I’ll kick off with 2016 Women’s Open winner on the Marquess ARIYA JUTANUGARN who found herself stuck in the doldrums over the last couple of years and even contemplated retiring, but she dug deep and claimed victory in the Honda LPGA Thailand in early May and she has since backed it up with third place in the Bank of Hope Matchplay, tied seventh in the US Open, and T10th last week in the Meijer Classic.
She was pretty imperious for the most part five years ago when winning her first major and she was T11th, spending all week in the top 20, when the championship returned to Woburn in 2019. She claimed a second major title in the 2018 US Women’s Open and I’m happy to take her above 20/1 when so many below that mark haven’t won a major recently.
For the second pick I recall the words of HINAKO SHIBUNO when asked to explain how she pulled off that audacious victory two years ago. "When I looked at the course," she said, "it reminded me of home, I felt like I had seen it before." It might be a little cheeky hoping for lightning to strike twice, it might also be asking a lot to assume that she sees what I see, but there’s more to this pick than just the visuals.
Her price is big this week, which is fair enough in one respect – she hasn’t had a top-20 since March and missed the cut last time out in the US Women’s Open. But winners of this event have often done nothing in their previous start, she’s missed just two cuts since last November and then there’s her major record. She’s started five and missed the cut in three, but she won her first and in the other, last December’s US Women’s Open, she led by three at halfway, by one at 54 holes and finished fourth. Her best golf is very, very good and has reaped a lot more at the highest level than many ranked below her in the markets.
LIZETTE SALAS missed the cut in this event last year, but before that finished T11th, tied eighth and tied fifth. In her last three strokeplay starts she’s logged fifth, T23rd and tied sixth last week. She was T25th at Woburn in 2016 and thought she might have won in 2019 only to be denied by Shibuno.
I’ll also add CHARLEY HULL, a Woburn member who shared the first-round lead last week and was still in with a chance on Sunday morning. A week before she’d been involved at halfway. She’s also featured in the top-five early in two of the last three majors.
And finally I’ll take the surprise package route: someone contending (and even better winning) in recent outings, but still a big price. MIN LEE won on the Symetra in late May, led the LPGA’s MEDIHEAL Championship by two after 54 holes two weeks ago ahead of finishing second, and was a decent T29th last week.
Posted at 1030 BST on 22/06/21
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