Michael Thompson's Honda Classic win features at number 11
Michael Thompson's Honda Classic win features at number 11

Ben Coley's PGA Tour shocks of the decade countdown


Relieve some of the biggest recent shocks on the PGA Tour in the first part of our top 20 countdown.

2017 PLAYERS: Si Woo Kim

  • Odds: 125/1
  • Form: WD-49-30-WD-MC-22
Highlights | Final Round | THE PLAYERS

The 2017 PLAYERS Championship was an altogether bizarre affair, and on reflection it was fitting that one of the most enigmatic young golfers on the planet happened to waltz his way to victory. Aged just 21, Si Woo Kim became the youngest winner in the history of this prestigious event and he barely appeared to break sweat to win by three.

No question, he was enormously impressive, and having taken the Wyndham Championship the previous year this was meant to be the beginning of something quite special. Kim had displayed his awesome ball-striking prowess in both events and, combined with a level of poise and fearlessness few in the sport manage to trap, only military service or injury looked capable of stopping him.

Sadly, injuries have been a constant in his young career - and this was true even before Sawgrass. The Korean had played 10 events in which there had been a cut in 2017, and he'd made only two of them. Three withdrawals, three rounds in the eighties; the only flicker of promise, at least in a recent sense, had come in his final start prior to the PLAYERS, where he finished 22nd. Still, it wasn't much to go at.

And yet the stars aligned for Kim. Jason Day was in poor form ahead of his title defence, Rory McIlroy nursed a back injury, Jon Rahm and Matt Kuchar both failed to break 80 in the third round, Dustin Johnson took an age to move forward, and there were simply no absolutely elite players firing on all cylinders. That's to take nothing away from his performance, and yet 54-hole leaders Kyle Stanley and J.B. Holmes help make it all possible.

Come the final few holes, Kim's concerns were of Pete Dye's making, rather than his opponents'. Just one player who started that Sunday inside the top 10 broke 70, and it was him. To stand tall while everyone else was shrinking took enormous skill, and enormous courage. It's a pity that the injuries which were evident even during that week appear to have contributed to a dramatic decline in his long-game and, three years on, it remains to be seen whether his finest hour came before his 22nd birthday. Let's hope not.

2015 Arnold Palmer: Matt Every

  • Odds: 150/1
  • Form: DQ-MC-69-49-63-MC
Highlights | Matt Every defends his title at Arnold Palmer Invitational

When Matt Every won his first Arnold Palmer Invitational, in 2014, it was somewhat surprising. Yes, he'd been playing well - only recently had he moved inside the world's top 100 for the very first time - and his Floridian roots run deep. He'd played well at the course a couple of times previously, and his form elsewhere suggested that Bay Hill really ought to suit.

And yet this was a high-class field, he was not yet a PGA Tour winner, and come Friday evening, he found himself nine shots behind Adam Scott. It took a monumental meltdown from the Australian, some help from others, and the weekend of his life, for Every to win by one. It was a popular success; David beats Goliath, in front of the eyes of The King. But it wasn't quite a shocking one.

Every being Every, one year later he managed an incredibly rare feat: to win the same title, at the same course, as the defending champion - and for the repeat to be a shock in a way that the first one wasn't.

He arrived for his title defence on a downward spiral, having managed one top-30 all year - and that came in a field of 34. A week before Bay Hill, he'd beaten just five players in the Valspar Championship, John Daly and Tim Petrovic among them. Once that event had finished, and the numbers had been crunched, he ranked 199th of 212 players in total strokes-gained, the single strongest metric when it comes to all-round performance.

He hadn't broken 70 once in 2015. And then he went and did it four days running, completing another one-shot win with a quite brilliant birdie at the final hole of the tournament. This time his victim was Henrik Stenson, the in-form world number three who looked for all money like he would win his sixth title in three years, only to bump into an inspired opponent.

At Bay Hill, where Every is concerned, the numbers just don't seem to matter.

2018 Texas Open: Andrew Landry

  • Odds: 200/1
  • Form: 2-MC-MC-MC-MC-42
Highlights | Round 4 | Valero

Within the might of the PGA Tour, there are levels: majors first, the PLAYERS, the WGCs and the FedEx Cup Playoffs fighting for the next spots, then some of the classier invitation-only events plus popular stops like Torrey Pines, and maybe the odd renewal of something with a good sponsor and real history like the Canadian Open.

The Texas Open, despite its own proud heritage, has fallen down the hierarchy to sit with the 'rest of' in recent years and in 2018, it was the weakest standard event since the CareerBuilder Challenge. Andrew Landry, who had lost a play-off to Jon Rahm at the CareerBuilder, took full advantage.

We'd seen in 2016 that Landry was a promising, gritty player thanks to his exploits in the US Open. Playing as a qualifier without a PGA Tour card, his tidiness and technique impressed even if he faded from the lead to a share of 15th. None of us were surprised that he won on what was the Web.com Tour the following year, and in finishing second to Rahm he again demonstrated that, at a certain level, he's got a touch of class.

Heading back home to Texas, to the sort of tough course he clearly likes, one where his rock-solid driving makes a difference, Landry was shortlist material for a few. The question was, why had his form tailed off after losing that play-off, and was there enough in a share of 42nd place at the RBC Heritage to suggest he might suddenly return to form?

Before the tournament, nobody knew those answers, but we did know that Landry had started well in the Heritage, and that he'd just become a dad. Not always does the latter pave the way for improvement - often, the effect is the exact opposite. This time, it did.

Tied for the lead after three rounds, Landry edged ahead on Sunday and while Trey Mullinax looked set to catch him, the powerhouse lost his touch around the 17th green and that was that. Landry, who made just one bogey all weekend and four throughout the tournament, triumphed by two. Add another page to the chapter about the nappy factor.

2018 Heritage: Satoshi Kodaira

  • Odds: 200/1
  • Form: 2-21-54-MC-59-28-1
Highlights | Round 4 | RBC Heritage

As a seven-time winner in Asia and the world number 46, Satoshi Kodaira perhaps ought not to be considered a shock PGA Tour winner. He'd just finished 28th in the Masters, after all, and before that had held his own despite a group-stage exit at the WGC-Match Play.

He's also a very straight hitter - arguably the key attribute at Harbour Town - so in terms of retrospectively explaining a result, he's perhaps the easiest among this top 20. Kodaira might have been well away from the head of the betting, but he was towards the top of the field in world ranking terms.

And yet time has also shown this result to be a freakish one. Kodaira has now played in 46 PGA Tour events, and his best result across 45 of them is 20th place. He's plummeted from inside the world's top 50 to outside its top 250 in little more than a year. Nothing he has done since has changed the impression of those four days in the RBC Heritage. This was robbery. Daylight robbery.

Si Woo Kim had been set to prove a popular winner. He'd been a shot better than Kodaira at Augusta and played well in the Match Play prior to that, but it was his credentials via Sawgrass and Sedgefield - two courses which correlate strongly with Harbour Town - which helped him to stand out.

All was going to plan, and even Kodaira - charging on the final day - helped play his part. The Japanese nervily bogeyed the 17th, and that ought to have been the end of his challenge, only for Kim to follow suit, having dropped shots at the 12th and the 15th already. From a position of total control, now he would have to enter a play-off, all the time seeking to tame the rattlesnake which had taken the place of his putter and seen him miss from six or so feet for the title at the 18th.

The final stats tell us that Kodaira putted marginally better than Kim during the tournament - less than a stroke, in fact. But they don't include the long-range putt he holed to win the play-off, and you have to dig deeper - or replay some painful highlights - to reveal where this tournament was won and lost. Kim himself putted beautifully the first two days and fine on Saturday. On Sunday, he was abysmal - especially when it mattered.

2010 Wyndham: Arjun Atwal

  • Odds: 250/1
  • Form: 64-41-74-68-17-MC
Final Round Highlights: 2010 Wyndham Championship

Arjun Atwal's victory in the 2010 Wyndham Championship was already remarkable enough, before he dropped golf's biggest name into his post-round press conference.

"My goal was to get it to 21 (under) today, you know, because I knew guys were going to shoot low today. I came up one short but - actually that's the number that my friend, Tiger Woods, told me to get to as well last night. I was really trying to get to that."

At 20-under, Atwal might have failed to do what had been asked of him by Tiger - a long-time practice partner in Florida - but he'd done enough to win the tournament. All throughout Sunday, those of us watching had expected Atwal to falter, but instead it was Lucas Glover - winner of the previous year's US Open - who let the title slip through his grasp.

Making the turn, Glover led by one, but whereas he came home in three-over, Atwal was one-under for holes 10 to 17, and stood on the final tee knowing what was required. Par and he would become the first Indian to win on the PGA Tour, and the first Monday qualifier to triumph a few days later since 1986. Bogey and he'd face a play-off with major champion David Toms.

Atwal's trademark accuracy off the tee understandably went missing, and he was left with a lengthy approach shot from the rough. Those of us expecting him to succumb to the magnitude of the situation were about to get paid. And then he channeled his inner Tiger Woods in a moment of ingenuity.

"I told (caddie) we've got all the grandstands in the back. I'll take out my X, which is like a 3-iron. It's a rescue. Even if it goes scooting, it will hit one of the stands and be fine. That's what it did. Up and down from there wasn't that hard."

Atwal executed the shot just as he had planned, and while the chip was not perfect, the putt was. Golf is increasingly a game of execution, but at the 2010 Wyndham Championship, the world number 450 adopted the mindset of the world number one and got the job done.

2015 Quicken Loans: Troy Merritt

  • Odds: 250/1
  • Form: 52-MC-MC-MC-MC-MC
Highlights | Troy Merritt rolls into the winners circle at the Quicken Loans National

One of the oldest lines in the commentary box goes something like this: it's hard to back up a low round. This is true, of course, but not primarily for the reasons given - the idea that a player returns to the course the next day and suffers some kind of mental letdown, or else grows frustrated that things just seem harder.

Of course, all of that can and does play a part - it will vary from player to player, round to round - but the primary factor is this one: golf is difficult. If you shoot 60 on one day, you're not likely to shoot it the next, because you've likely never shot 60 before. There's little evidence that a good score one day is a strong indicator for a bad score the next. But perhaps that's for another day.

One thing we know for certain is that in the 2015 Quicken Loans National, Troy Merritt backed up. On Saturday, his round of 61 was the best in the field, and while Sunday's 67 was less sparkling, it was still better than all bar one. And, when you shoot the best score on Saturday followed by the second best score on Sunday, there's a good chance you'll win. That's exactly what he did.

Merritt's victory was surprising given his form coming in - five missed cuts in succession. On the other hand, a closer look at his overall profile at least reveals that he's exactly the type to pull off this kind of trick. The season before, he'd done nothing for six months and then finished second in Memphis. His previous best - third place in New Orleans - came after seven missed cuts.

Even knowing all that, it would've been hard to foresee this victory, and yet there were a number of nervy opponents on that leaderboard, while neither Justin Rose nor Rickie Fowler produced what they needed to on Sunday. All that meant a first PGA Tour win from a player with a Streelmanesque quality: streaky - really streaky - and hard to predict. Merritt won plenty at college in Boise and when you combine that grit with the low numbers he produces out of nowhere, he was always a candidate to wind up on this kind of list.

2016 Shriners: Rod Pampling

Odds: 300/1

Form: MC-10-24-12-MC-42

Highlights | Rod Pampling wins in dramatic fashion at Shriners

Throughout this countdown, it will be generally possible to explain something that happened, even if it would've been hard to predict. For Every, see course form; for Atwal and Kodaira, at least the nature of the golf courses they won on made sense.

The only way to really explain Rod Pampling seeing off Brooks Koepka and Lucas Glover is to put it down to the Shriners being that kind of event. Held on the outskirts of Las Vegas, it's always been worth rolling the dice here on a straightforward, resort-style course which can be overcome in any number of ways. The leaderboard in 2016 confirms as much.

Ben Martin and Smylie Kaufman were the two champions here before Pampling, and both would've made a top 30 countdown. From 2005 to 2010, the only player ranked better than 200th in the world to win this was Jonathan Byrd. He was ranked 183rd at the time.

A couple of course specialists from the upper echelons of the sport have turned the tide recently, but Summerlin remains a place where we ought to expect the unexpected. That's the only way I can really make sense of a third PGA Tour title for Pampling, a decade on from his second.

"Well, you never lose tenacity," said the champion. "It's in there. It's always there. It's whether you get the opportunity to bring it out."

Pampling had that opportunity thanks to an opening 60, but even on Thursday the shadow of Koepka loomed as he blitzed round in 62. Come Sunday they were locked together, and while the veteran Aussie moved ahead, his lead was one with six to play. Had any of us known then that Koepka would play the final six in three-under, we surely would've expected a play-off at least.

As it happened, that saw him fall a further shot off Pampling, who turned in the performance of his career to earn an exemption which took him to his 50th birthday.

"The young guys win enough, so I'm glad I can put my hand up for the old guys."

2016 Houston Open: Jim Herman

Odds: 300/1

Form: 49-MC-17-MC-MC-63

Highlights | Jim Herman wrestles away a win at the Shell Houston Open

Although not quite in Shriners territory, the Houston Open is another event where somewhat strange things have happened down the years. In fact, D.A. Points' victory here in 2013 could and probably should have made the list. He won having missed seven of nine cuts that year, with his best finish a tie for 63rd. What made the difference? He dug out an old putter from his mother's garage.

There was the time Matt Jones took advantage of a Matt Kuchar meltdown to win their play-off with a holed bunker shot, the unfathomable heroics of Ian Poulter, and Johnson Wagner surprising everyone in 2008.

Wagner's victory was notable for being somehow absent of drama, as he fended off world-class opposition like he'd been doing it all his life, but Herman's was quite the opposite. All day he'd held firm in a three-way fight with Henrik Stenson and Dustin Johnson, but when he missed the green at the 16th, it looked as though all his efforts would be if not for nothing, then somewhat in vain.

Instead, Herman chipped in to take a one-shot lead which he carried to the clubhouse, earning his first PGA Tour win and the last Masters spot. For a player who had considered quitting when failing to keep his card on the Web.com Tour some years earlier, it really was something.

Shawn Stefani hasn't won at Houston, but he's gone close, and the Texan puts that in part down to a relationship with the event and its former director, Steve Timms, which can be traced right back to the start of his career. After winning, Herman revealed his own connection with this tournament: it remains the only one he's Monday qualified for (he went on to finish 16th in 2012), and he'd progressed through Qualifying School nearby at The Woodlands.

All of that would be completely anecdotal were it not for that chip-in at the 16th when, just as Herman's grip on the trophy had appeared set to weaken, it in fact grew tighter.

Once the numbers were added up, only one thing made all this even stranger: Johnson led the field in strokes-gained putting but had to settle for third. The only other time he's led was a World Golf Championship he won by five. If anyone every asks you for an example of all logic going out of the window, show them the 2016 Houston Open.

2013 Honda Classic: Michael Thompson

Odds: 300/1

Form: 13-10-MC-78-MC-MC

Visionworks INsight: Michael Thompson wins The Honda Classic 2013

The two preceding entries come at courses and in events which appear predisposed to shocks, and that is certainly true of the Honda Classic - which provides numbers 12 and 11 in the countdown.

Neither were impossible to predict, but there's no doubt both winners arrived in especially poor form. Michael Thompson's figures above might suggest decent golf wasn't too far in the past, but 13th and 10th had come the previous November. From January he'd missed three cuts in four, finishing 78th of 86 in the other, and his final round before returning to the east coast required 80 shots at Riviera.

I've written about the switch from west to east before, and in a sense there's logic in Thompson's fortunes improving dramatically for it. He went to college in Alabama, where he's since been based, and his exploits at Sea Island (Georgia) have caught many an eye in the past.

Then again, the standout clues as to why he might specifically win the Honda Classic come courtesy of his golf on the other side of the country, at Olympic Club, where a year earlier he'd been second in the US Open at a course where he was also second in the US Amateur.

Since moving to PGA National, the Honda Classic has been a grind which has brought out the best in some major champions. Padraig Harrington, Adam Scott, Rory McIlroy, Ernie Els and Justin Thomas are some of the examples, but look also to Sergio Garcia, Gary Woodland and YE Yang as those who have gone close to winning here.

When Thompson toughed things out from the front, he did so at the expense of two former US Open champions - Geoff Ogilvy and Lucas Glover - and there must be a good chance that the most recent winner of the tournament, Sungjae Im, one day joins that club, too.

Working out why PGA National suits major champions seems pretty easy: it's a relentless grind. As for why it throws up some odd results even among the more straightforward ones, that perhaps comes down to its famous Bear Trap and the fact that one bad shot can ruin a player's tournament.

Nobody in golf has played that stretch better than Thompson. In fact, prior to this year, he'd gone 29 rounds at PGA National without finding any of the water which surrounds the 15th and 17th greens, and guards the side of the 16th fairway. When you consider than nobody else has played more than 14 rounds without finding water on one of these holes, it was a remarkable record.

What happened to bring it to an end? Someone told him about it. And he immediately blocked a seven-iron right into the drink.

2014 Honda Classic: Russell Henley

Odds: 300/1

Form: 27-51-MC-MC-52-MC

The Honda Classic 2014 recap

We round off part one of this feature at the following year's Honda Classic, where Russell Henley beat Russell Knox, Ryan Palmer and Rory McIlroy in an R-rated play-off.

We've seen carnage down the years at PGA National, but I'm not sure anything has matched the 2014 renewal for drama - not even the following year when, on Monday, Padraig Harrington forced a play-off with Daniel Berger which he would go on to win.

No, Henley's victory was of a different level entirely, not least because he doubled the 15th to fall to eight-under and remained there come the clubhouse.

That should've been that, but McIlroy dropped three shots in two holes and then missed a short eagle putt for the tournament after a quite sensational second which should've ended it.

Knox meanwhile had doubled the 14th before playing the Bear Trap perfectly, and Palmer finished with a six when five, it turns out, would've won it.

There were some scrambled heads in the play-off, then, and only Henley was able to birdie the 18th after they'd made their way back to the tee. Somehow, after 90 minutes of silliness, he was the one left standing.

Henley didn't exactly boast those major credentials of other former winners, nor did he arrive in form, but a good second round at Riviera had provided enough of a spark as he collected a second PGA Tour win.

Nice one, Russell.


Click here for the second part of our countdown

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