James Hahn
James Hahn

Genesis Invitational final-round betting preview and tip as Rory McIlroy goes for glory


Ian Richards has a three-ball selection ahead of what promises to be an enthralling final round in the Genesis Invitational.

Recommended bets

2pts James Hahn to win his three-ball at 14/5

There was much chopping and changing at the top of the leaderboard on day three of the Genesis Invitational, especially when those in front faltered at various points late in the day.

Matt Kuchar appeared in cruise control early on but three bogeys in four holes from the 13th, combined with a level-par back nine from Rory McIlroy and a charging Adam Scott, mean we are left with a three-way tie at the top.

Just one shot back are Harold Varner and Russell Henley, who both staged comebacks to give themselves a shot at the title, and there are fully 16 players within four of the lead ahead of what should be a fascinating final round.

The current top five were all in the top 10 at halfway, but the way the back nine played out has opened up the door for a handful of other players to be in with a chance of victory. Even Hideki Matsuyama, who began the second round fully 10 adrift of Kuchar, now has a chance to match the exploits of Bubba Watson when he went 64-64 to win this title in 2014.

Oddly, in the last decade we have only once had a tie at the top of the leaderboard at this stage yet this week we have three high-class players who can't be split through 54 holes.

These were the positions of the eventual winner going into the final round:

  • 2019 Holmes 2nd (four back)
  • 2018 Watson 1st (one ahead)
  • 2017 Johnson 1st (five ahead)
  • 2016 Watson 1st (one ahead)
  • 2015 Hahn 7th (four back)
  • 2014 Watson 6th (four back)
  • 2013 Merrick 2nd (three back)
  • 2012 Haas 6th (two back)
  • 2011 Baddeley 1st (one ahead)
  • 2010 Stricker 1st (six ahead)

While we have seen three players come from four behind none of them had more than six players to pass, whereas those who are currently four behind have 10 players in front of them which just may be a bridge too far.

As far as outright betting goes I can make plenty of arguments for and against all the players in contention - sometimes it’s better to keep your hands in your pockets and simply enjoy the spectacle and that's what I'll be doing.

For those of you on Sporting Life's pre-tournament selections, you are in a decent position with the headline tip of Dustin Johnson now just two back in sixth, plus Wyndham Clark for a top 20 at 9/1 (T11) and Talor Gooch top 40 at 3/1 (T8). Johnson suddenly has a good chance if he can keep the clumsy mistakes off his card, the three eagles he's made over the last 36 holes a demonstration of just what damage he can do round here.

Gooch should have no issues collecting the top 40 bet while Clark remains in good shape for the top 20, despite a stuttering Saturday. The worry would be he also struggled on Sunday from a similar halfway position in Phoenix, but there's next to no pressure on him now and anything around 70 should do the trick.

It is always worth looking at final round three-balls although I admit I rarely find any. Last night, however, I wrote down two names I wanted to oppose today - and they're in the same group.

If you look at final-round scoring averages over the past six months (for those that have played five rounds or more) Paul Casey sits 138th of 141 qualifiers and Chez Reavie is 137th. They're in with JAMES HAHN today and the former Riviera winner is good value to produce the best score.

Hahn doesn’t qualify for those stats as he was off injured for eight months last year but his last three Sunday rounds here were all 69s, including for the victory in 2015. As the outsider of the three at 11/4 I think he is worthy of a bet given the frailties evident in his two opponents.

I would suggest anything from 5/2 upwards is worth taking for a small interest ahead of what's guaranteed to be an exciting evening.

Posted at 1000 GMT on 16/02/20

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