1pt Under 2.5 goals at 7/4 (General)
1pt Both Teams Not To Score at 11/10 (BetVictor)
In our preview of the first leg of this fixture last week, we outlined how the Europa League could potentially provide a welcome distraction to Tottenham’s current Premier League issues, and it duly did, Jose Mourinho’s men running out comfortable 4-1 winners in Budapest.
Unfortunately for Spurs, they were brought crashing back down to Earth at the weekend as West Ham claimed all three points with an assured victory.
Tottenham looked shaky at the back and a little bereft of ideas going forward, that is, however, until Gareth Bale entered the picture.
Bale was brought on for Erik Lamela at half-time and looked extremely good for large periods of the second half, picking up clever pockets of space behind Declan Rice and Tomas Soucek. It allowed him the time and space to get shots away, something he did three times, with only Harry Kane recording more shots than Bale in the entire match
He has featured heavily in Tottenham’s Europa League campaign, scoring twice, so expect him to be at the heart of everything Spurs do well on Wednesday.
With this tie already practically won however, Tottenham will no doubt be tempted to take their foot off the gas a little, particularly with extremely winnable league fixtures against Burnley, Fulham and Crystal Palace on the horizon.
Wolsberger may feel a little aggrieved at the result against Spurs last week, not least because they had to play their “home” leg in Budapest. But also, the Austrian side were not completely outclassed, the expected goals (xG) scoreline was a very respectable one from their point of view (xG score: Wolfsberger 2.06 – 2.34 Tottenham).
The fact that Wolfsberger did generate so many chances was something of a surprise for a team that created an average of just 1.14 expected goals for (xGF), and conceded chances equating to 1.31 expected goals against (xGA) per match during the group stage.
Wolfsberger’s standout group-stage result was undoubtedly their 4-1 win over Feyenoord, but in their five other matches they only managed to score three goals.
The Austrians do arrive here in good form, having won their last two league matches, but this is an extremely difficult task, and it is hard to see them posing much of a threat to Tottenham’s backline.
Domestically, Wolfberger are not the most prolific scorers, with six of the other 11 teams in the Austrian Bundesliga boasting a better goal return than Ferdinand Feldhofer’s side, while defensively, they are neither solid nor open, conceding an average of 1.67 goals per league match.
Away from home, over 2.5 goals has landed on just 56% of occasions, with only three sides in the Austrian top-flight returning a lower percentage on this metric.
Spurs have been more prolific in the Europa League than in the Premier League this season, but considering they are already three goals to the good, we could see Tottenham adopt a far less laissez-faire approach to this fixture.
Over 2.5 goals has landed in just 42% of Tottenham’s Premier League matches this season, with that percentage dropping to 33% at home.
Tottenham already have “one foot in the next round” according to their manager, meaning it is unlikely that Spurs will be out for more blood. All this points towards a low-scoring affair, but UNDER 2.5 GOALS is available to back at as big as 7/4 with most bookmakers.
If under 2.5 goals is on the risky side however, it could also be worth siding with both teams not to score at 11/10 with BetVictor (though be advised, any price lower than that would no longer represent value).
Both of these sides have seen BTTS NO land in 43% of their fixtures in Europe this season, meaning any price bigger than even money makes plenty of appeal.
Score prediction: Tottenham 2-0 Wolfsberger (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 1100 GMT (23/02/21)
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