World Cup qualifying tips: Sunday preview


David John has picked out two bets from Sunday's World Cup qualifiers involving England, Scotland and Northern Ireland, with another spritely start expected from the Three Lions.

Recommended bets:


1pt first half to have the most goals in England v Lithuania at 23/10 - dominated a better rival in the opening 45 in midweek and can get rolling quickly here

1pt double Scotland v Slovenia and Northern Ireland v Norway to both have under 2.5 total goals at 23/10 - solid feeling neither game will be very high scoring

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Gareth Southgate’s next assignment comes around quickly and the mood in the England camp is decidedly upbeat despite Wednesday’s 1-0 friendly defeat to a Lukas Podolski-inspired Germany. 

It would have been understandable if they had been distracted in the early exchanges following an interminable ‘opening ceremony’ right up there with any Olympics as Podolski said his farewells but the visitors were much the better side during the first period.

The impressive Adam Lallana and Dele Alli had gilt-edge chances to take command – stick one or both away, then I doubt England would have lost the game.

Nevertheless, the substance contained within was highly promising as the manager trialled a system involving three at the back and one tailor-made to getting the most out of that energetic duo from Liverpool and Tottenham. 

There was little practical time to test things out either before kick-off and much of the tactical approach was of a theoretical nature on whiteboards and England’s grasp of what was required against an admittedly under-strength German team was eyecatching looking to the longer term.

It is back to the serious stuff though of World Cup qualification and hard to see Lithuania posing too much of a problem at Wembley.

Two previous meetings have yielded 4-0 and 3-0 triumphs for the Three Lions on the way to the Euro 2016 finals and Southgate could strengthen further from midweek with John Stones, Ross Barkley and Raheem Sterling all rested and raring to go.

Stones will slot into the back three but Gary Cahill’s suspension and an injury sustained by Chris Smalling means another little tweak is required – the impressive Ben Gibson of Middlesbrough has been called up at the 11th hour and is under consideration for the rotation, along with Eric Dier. 

The betting is very much weighted in favour of the hosts against a nation that has failed to win their last six away qualifying fixtures and missing two or three regulars as well.

A home win is 1/8 and another victory to nil no bigger than 8/15 so you can see the sort of parameters punters are having to work within.

So at a much more rewarding price based on England’s lively first 45 minutes in midweek and the words of a sidelined Cahill ringing in their ears about being more clinical, I’d suggest a small investment on the first half containing more goals as they put the game to bed with the minimum of fuss.             

Elsewhere concerning the home nations, Scotland had to sit at home with their arms folded last summer while everyone else enjoyed the Euro 2016 finals and any hopes of reaching Russia 2018 are hanging by a thread. 

In all reality, they need to beat Slovenia at Hampden Park to significantly cut the deficit on the nation sat in second place in Group F otherwise hosting England in June could be little more than a high-profile exhibition fixture for Gordon Strachan’s side.

Strachan might not even be there come the summer if it all goes pear-shaped Sunday evening with his four-year reign under real pressure following consecutive 3-0 qualifying defeats and a dire 1-1 draw in a midweek friendly against world ranked number 117 Canada. 

Just over 9,000 frozen souls booed the national team off the Easter Road park but Strachan and his assistant Mark McGhee have promised much-needed changes to the line-up as a host of fringe performers fluffed their lines.

“I know the group of players going into this game are hugely motivated,” said McGhee.

“We might be decent. We might have something to cheer. If we are rubbish, then boo us.”

Not exactly the most glowing recommendation yet the layers still feel they deserve to be favourites against a team that is unbeaten in their last seven fixtures.

However, Slovenia hardly look bomb-proof in all honesty in front of excellent Atletico Madrid custodian Jan Oblak – capable of holding England 0-0, they only managed a paltry 1-0 success against whipping boys Malta to follow up.   

So can Strachan actually work some magic in front of a half-full Hampden? 

The Canada game might not have made for particularly pleasant viewing but it at least sorted out a few things in the manager’s mind and getting back James Morrison and Matt Ritchie – who have returned to training – is a step in the right direction. 

Robert Snodgrass remains the most obvious source for a goal but has not fired on all cylinders since his move from Hull to West Ham and overall this game does not strike me as one that will contain copious amounts of goalmouth activity.

Northern Ireland’s prospects look rosier in Group C as they tussle for second spot and a play-off berth with Germany seemingly over the hill, far away and five points clear at the top. 

Norway are up next as Michael O’Neill’s side defend an impressive record at Windsor Park which has not seen them lose a competitive fixture at home since the visit of Portugal in September 2013.

O’Neill’s side probably deserve to be favourites on the strength of that alone while the experience he can call on via West Brom triumvirate Chris Brunt, Gareth McAuley and Jonny Evans is invaluable as they bask in the winning glow of turning over Arsenal 3-1 last weekend in the Premier League.

It is hard to know exactly what to expect from the visitors but the appointment of veteran Lars Lagerback should at least provide a bit of shake-up to an ailing campaign.

The 68-year-old said “this is a challenge that really motivates me” following his exploits last summer with Iceland at the Euros and a fresh pair of eyes with a new direction might not be a bad idea after just one victory from four qualifying matches so far.

In-form Bournemouth front-man Josh King has eight PL goals in his last eight starts (including a hat-trick against West Ham) and will be the obvious focal point for a young squad in which only goalkeeper Rune Jarstein is over 30 years old. 

Expect Lagerback to set up in such a way his team will be tough to beat and the hosts will have to chisel away resolutely if they are to expect any joy - backing low-scoring affairs in both Belfast and Glasgow could yield some profit. 

Where to watch on TV: England v Lithuania on ITV; Scotland v Slovenia on Sky Sports 1; Northern Ireland v Norway on Sky Sports 2.

Posted at 1625 GMT on 24/03/17.

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