Steve Cooper: What to expect from the new Nottingham Forest head coach

Article published before Nottingham Forest faced Millwall on September 25 in Steve Cooper's first game in charge.

Former Swansea City boss Steve Cooper has been named the new Nottingham Forest head coach after Chris Hughton was sacked from the role in September.

On the surface it seems like a justified decision. Hughton paid the price for a poor start to the Sky Bet Championship season, where Forest took just one point from their opening seven games.

But luck plays its part in football, with a manager only able to do so much to influence a game. Was Hughton right to be sacked or does the underlying data present a different story?

And, with Forest now appointing a new manager for the 11th straight calendar year, do the numbers suggest Cooper will finally lead the Midlanders to glory after a decade of hurt?

Were Nottingham Forest right to sack Chris Hughton?

In short, yes. Ask any Forest fan the reason why their team lost seven of their first eight league games, drawing the other and they’ll tell you ‘goals’.

Quite simply, the Reds don’t score enough of them. Their seven goals in the Championship so far are better than only Hull, Barnsley and Derby. Before their 2-0 win over Huddersfield last time out, they were the joint-worst in front of goal in the league.

And this vein of form is no unfortunate blip. Forest’s expected goals (xG) numbers this term are some of the worst the Championship has ever seen.

For every chance, effort and opportunity, analysts can give it a probability. A tap-in from two yards out might get an xG of 0.85, an attempt from the halfway line might be 0.01. Over the course of a game, these numbers can be added to give a side their total xG for a match.

A very good attacking side may average around 2.0 xG or maybe even more. Nottingham Forest are not a very good attacking side. They average 0.71 expected goals for (xGF) per game.

That number is pitifully low. Since Infogol started collecting data for the Championship, only Ipswich (0.74) and Bolton (0.75) come close across a whole season, both going down, and detached from the rest in the 2018/19 season.

The omens never looked good for Forest under Hughton. They have only managed an xG of more than two four times since the start of last season. In every league match the team has played this term, their total xG for the fixture has never gone higher than one.

Forest are solid defensively, their expected goals against (xGA of 9.03 from eight games is a competitive total, but their failure going forward has cost them points and, ultimately, Hughton his job.

If it wasn’t for Derby’s 12 point deduction, right now the Tricky Trees would be rooted to the bottom.

What to expect from Steve Cooper at Forest?

Forest’s arsenal of attackers aren’t bad. Captain Lewis Grabban has netted 43 goals in 118 appearances for the club. Brennan Johnson, 20, looks a lively prospect and Watford loanee Philip Zinckernagel is also happy to burst forward on the wing, averaging a high 2.95 shots per game.

The question is, can new boss Cooper unlock this sleeping attacking threat? Whether he’s the right man for the Forest job can be read in one of two ways.

Across his two seasons at Swansea, he twice reached the play-offs. On each occasion, however, his side’s style of play varied exceptionally.

Maybe Cooper’s Forest will be like the 2019-20 Swansea City, Cooper’s first full season in charge, where his side were involved in high-scoring affairs. You’ll score two, we’ll net three and so on.

With the likes of Conor Gallagher, Rhian Brewster and Andre Ayew, Swans fixtures involved a steep 2.85 expected goals per game. Swansea’s total xGF for the season came at 64.64. For comparison, right now, Forest are on track to finish with 32.66 xGF this season.

In Infogol’s expected table, Swansea should have finished ninth that year. Instead, they made it into the top six on the final day thanks to a 4-1 over Reading, sneaking in at the expense of - of all teams - Forest before eventually falling in the play-off semi-finals 3-2 to Brentford.

That’s the Cooper Forest fans will want. After two years of dull, defensive-minded football, a manager willing to let his attackers off the leash would be embraced by the fans.

But Cooper’s style is pragmatic, not set in stone. Indeed, his second and final season at the Liberty Stadium produced eerily similar expected numbers to Hughton’s side.

In the 2020/21 season, Swansea netted 56 goals from an xG of 53.41. That same year Forest had an xG of 52.33, but could only manage to score 37.

The two teams finished 13 places and 28 points apart, but Swansea’s true position in the xG table was 11th.

It was as if Cooper had reined in his attackers in favour of a cohesive defensive unit. Swansea conceded just 39 goals last campaign, which ended in a play-off final loss to Brentford. In truth though, they were fortunate to make it that far.

Statistically, Cooper’s renowned defence should have actually conceded 49 times. In Cooper’s last full season in management, you could argue the Welshman coached a side who were tentative going forward and very lucky at the back.

At the end of the season, Cooper went on gardening leave in south Wales. Having just under 12 months left on his contract, Forest have had to pay Swansea a hefty compensation fee for his services.

Forest chief executive Dane Murphy told the club’s official website: “Steve was our first choice as head coach and we are delighted to have secured his services.

“Steve knows what is required to be successful in the Championship and has a proven track record with Swansea.”

Forest fans got fed up with Hughton and won’t want more of the same. 2020/21 Cooper would be exactly that. 2019/20 Cooper would be a breath of attacking fresh air, though.

It will be interesting to see which option the most pragmatic manager in the Championship goes for.

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