South America World Cup qualifying tips: Colombia v Brazil, Argentina v Uruguay
The South American World Cup qualifiers continue on Sunday night and Michael Beardmore provides his fancies for the two headline matches.
Football betting tips: South American World Cup qualifying
1pt Brazil to win by one goal v Colombia at 11/4 (General)
0.5pt Brazil to win from behind at 13/1 (Bet Victor/Boyle Sports)
1pt Argentina and Uruguay to draw at 13/5 (General)
Colombia v Brazil
- Kick-off time: 22:00 BST, Sunday
- TV channel: Premier Sports 1
- Colombia 14/5 | Draw 85/40 | Brazil 21/20
Brazil continue their quest for a flawless World Cup qualifying campaign with a visit to Bogota on Sunday night – sitting prettily perfect on nine wins from nine halfway through the qualifiers.
It’s highly unlikely they will be able to win all 18 qualifiers but you can be sure it is firmly in the thoughts of a nation always determined to prove their dominance on their own continent.
But while plenty of South American sides roll over for the Selecao, Colombia are not among them – indeed they have posed Brazil plenty of problems in recent years.
Of the past eight meetings between the countries, Brazil have won six, with two draws – but all six of those victories have come via a single-goal margin.
One of those came at the Copa America in June, a tournament where Colombia finished in third place, only losing to Argentina in the semi-finals on penalties. They are no mugs whatsoever.
Having said that, the visitors possess the superior quality and should win, as they usually have done – but given the head-to-head record it’s worth backing them to do so narrowly with BRAZIL TO WIN BY ONE GOAL an inviting 11/4 with several firms.
It’s also worth pointing out that Neymar and co have not been unflappable on their travels – yes, they have only conceded three goals in nine games overall but all three have come away, against the relative minnows of Peru and, only this past week, bottom side Venezuela.
In both of those games, Brazil have had to come from behind to win, just as they did in their group stage Copa America win against Colombia in the summer.
They have developed an occasional habit for being slow starters and against a home side who are the third highest scorers in qualifying, I just feel it’s worth a small play on BRAZIL TO WIN FROM BEHIND at 13/1 with Bet Victor and Boyle Sports.
Score prediction: Colombia 1-2 Brazil (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Argentina v Uruguay
- Kick-off time: 00:30 BST, Monday (Sunday night, UK time)
- TV channel: Premier Sports 1
- Argentina 4/6 | Draw 5/2 | Uruguay 9/2
Argentina’s mission to bring Lionel Messi the World Cup triumph many believe his career and legacy deserve continues in the early hours of Monday morning UK time as they host bitter rivals Uruguay.
In truth, the hosts aren’t guaranteed automatic qualification yet, sitting second, five points above fifth-placed Colombia, albeit with a game in hand – but come off it, we know they are going to Qatar.
So, most likely, are Uruguay, fourth in the standings. But they still have much work to do and will know any result at the Estadio Unico will be a huge help, given they visit Brazil four days later.
With that game firmly in mind, I believe Uruguay, who boast the third best defensive record, will batten down the hatches for this one in the hope of taking home a point.
Argentina have drawn four of nine qualifiers thus far, Uruguay four of ten – when you look at the standings, there’s an argument another draw would suit both.
I don’t expect either side to massively push the boat out – only Paraguay’s games average fewer goals per match than these two in the qualifiers.
Argentina have already been held at home by Chile and Paraguay in the qualifiers – against a Uruguay side that have only conceded seven goals in their past 13 competitive internationals, it’s very likely they could be frustrated again.
It’s comfortably odds-on – 4/6 generally – there will be under 2.5 goals in this game and if you like a big punt, I wouldn’t put you off. But given I fancy the most likely scores are 0-0, 1-1 or 1-0 either way, the DRAW looks incredibly tempting at 13/5 generally.
South America World Cup Qualifying best bets
- Brazil to win by one goal v Colombia at 11/4 (General)
- Brazil to win from behind at 13/1 (Bet Victor/Boyle Sports)
- Argentina and Uruguay to draw at 13/5 (General)
Odds correct at 1930 BST (08/10/21)
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