With the regular seasons in England's lower leagues all wrapped up, Jake Osgathorpe turns his attentions to the continent for this week's Saturday Seven, with acca tips starting from 2pm.
2pts Over 2.5 Goals in Farense v Tondela at Evens (General) (NAP)
It's desperation time for FARENSE, who are three points from safety with just two games remaining. Based on Infogol's xG table though, they should be sat in the top half, so their position isn't a fair reflection of their performances. Their last two matches have featured more than four goals as they need results, and they host a team that should give them plenty of chances.
Mid-table TONDELA should be in Farense's position according to xG, as they possess the worst defensive process in the division (1.51 xGA per game). That number jumps to 1.73 when isolating away matches, and Tondela are also yet to keep a clean sheet on the road this term.
63% of their away matches have seen OVER 2.5 GOALS, so with them being vulnerable at the back and Farense in need of a win, we could be in for a high-scoring game. Even money for the overs makes great appeal.
There is a lot riding on ATALANTA's remaining two matches in Serie A, with Champions League qualification very nearly secured. They sit second and have a three point cushion to fifth placed Juventus, and a win against GENOA this weekend would likely mean another season at Europe's top table.
La Dea have been free-scoring of late, putting five past Parma and Bologna in their last four, with 61% of their games this season seeing OVER 2.5 GOALS. Genoa have averaged 1.59 xGA per game this season, so are vulnerable defensively, and the Champions League chasers could go big again.
Both SPEZIA and TORINO are more or less safe heading into the final few games of the season, with both sat on 35 points and four clear of the relegation zone, but this might not be the low-scoring cagey game many might expect.
Spezia have been fun to follow this season, with their expansive brand of football providing plenty of goals at either end. In fact, 72% of their matches have seen OVER 2.5 GOALS, and their last two league games have seen at least four goals.
Torino did go through a low-scoring patch, but AC Milan put seven past them in midweek, and Il Toro have a torrid xGA per game average when travelling (1.71), so goals should flow between these two.
AUGSBURG and WERDER BREMEN face off in a huge game at the bottom of the Bundesliga, with Werder out of the relegation play-off place on goal difference alone, and Augsburg just one place and two points ahead.
Both sides are in horrific form, with Augsburg winless in five and Werder winless in eight, but this is a game neither can afford to lose. These sides are near the foot of the table for a few reasons, and one of those is their poor attacking processes, with Augsburg having averaged 0.97 xGF per game and Werder averaging 0.93.
UNDER 2.5 GOALS has landed in 53% of Augsburg's league matches and 59% of Werder's. Couple that with the magnitude of the match and this game is a good candidate for unders.
It has been a below-par season for BAYER LEVERKUSEN, who can no longer qualify for the Champions League and look set for another campaign in the Europa League. That is fair according to the data, with B04's defensive numbers concerning, especially at home (1.42 xGA per home game).
UNION BERLIN have plenty to play for over the last two matchdays, the club from the capital are currently sitting eighth on goal difference, with this season seeing seventh place in the Bundesliga qualify for the Europa Conference League. Goals have flowed in their matches of late, with OVER 2.5 GOALS landing in three of their last four.
Leverkusen's home matches have seen three or more goals 75% of the time this season, and overs has landed in each of their last seven at the BayArena.
BORUSSIA MONCHENGLADBACH have had an odd season, and, after qualifying for the Champions League last season, and making it out of a tough group, look set to battle it out for a place in the Europa Conference League. Manager Marco Rose is heading off to manage Dortmund in the summer, and that announcement coincided with a dip in form.
They steadied the ship in fairness, but have been temperamental of late with their results, but one thing has remained consistent, the high-scoring nature of their matches. 10 of their last 11 games have seen OVER 2.5 GOALS, with seven of those seeing over 3.5 land. They are a fun watch.
Opponents STUTTGART are set for a mid-table finish, and that is a fair reflection of their performances this season. Away from home, they actually boast a positive xG process (1.68 xGF, 1.56 xGA per game), but you can see by the high nature of both of those figures that chances and goals flow when VfB travel, with 63% of their road games seeing three or more goals.
BOAVISTA head into the final two matches needing to get results, as they currently occupy the relegation play-off place. They are winless in five, as are their opponents PORTIMONENSE, who are just four points above their hosts.
At home this season, Boavista have a positive xG process, but it shows that they don't really play expansive football, with few chances generated at either end (1.26 xGF, 1.23 xGA per game). 62% of their home matches have gone UNDER 2.5 GOALS.
Portimonense are poor travelers from an attacking standpoint, averaging just 0.98 xGF per away game, so in what is a game that neither can really afford to lose, a tight and cagey affair is expected, with few goals as a result.
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