Serie A tips: Weekend best bets from Italy
Jake Pearson's profitable Serie A column returns to assess the upcoming fixtures in the Italian top-flight.
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- Serie A column tipping record: 67pts staked | +72.9pts returned | 12.2% return on investment
Football betting tips: Serie A
1pt Bologna to beat Udinese at 19/10 (Spreadex)
1pt Lazio to beat AC Milan at 19/10 (General)
Lazio v AC Milan
- Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Sunday
- TV Channel: BT Sport 1
- Lazio 9/5 | Draw 9/4 | AC Milan 13/10
The race for the Scudetto looks likely to go all the way to the wire this season, AC Milan currently two points ahead of their city rivals Inter at the top of Serie A, but having played a game more, and with Napoli a further two points back in third.
Milan took their foot off the gas with successive goalless draws but bounced back to winning ways with a 2-0 victory over Genoa at the weekend. This will be a tough fixture for Stefano Piol’s men though, Lazio still in the hunt for a European place and one of the most in-form teams in the Italian top flight.
Only Roma and Juventus have picked up more points than Maurizio Sarri’s side across the last 12 fixtures, scoring a joint-high of 22 goals in that period.
Indeed, scoring goals has certainly not been an issue for Le Aquile this season, only Inter netting more than them in the league.
By contrast, Milan have scored just five times in their last six matches, and with the pressure mounting week on week, it could be the Rossoneri who wilt into submission in this fixture.
LAZIO have lost just twice at home all season, and though there is plenty to recommend Milan in this fixture, it is certainly the hosts who arrive into the tie in more vibrant form, and with the advantage of the Stadio Olimpico behind them, they should arguably be shorter in the betting than 19/10.
Score prediction: Lazio 1-0 AC Milan (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Bologna v Udinese
- Kick-off time: 14:00 BST, Sunday
- TV Channel: BT Sport 2 Extra
- Bologna 7/4 | Draw 9/4 | Udinese 29/20
There isn’t too much to separate these two at this stage of the season, both sides confined to another season of mid-table obscurity.
Despite the similarities between the two – just one point separates the two - it is Udinese who are the favourites to emerge with all three points in this fixture, and at Bologna no less.
Take into consideration that Bologna’s home record is significantly better than their away record, whilst Udinese have been notably poorer on their travels than when playing on home soil, and the prices do seem a little off.
It seems recent form has been taken heavily into account by the compilers in this fixture, and while Udinese do arguably arrive into this contest in the better vein, there are caveats to both sides’ recent performances.
Bologna may have won just one of their last six, but the average position of those six opponents is 7.67, while the average position of Udinese’s last six opponents stands at 12.83.
Three successive wins represents a purple patch for Udinese, but a defeat to bottom club Salernitana on Wednesday demonstrated their fragility.
In the same period Bologna have drawn with current league-leaders AC Milan and fourth-place Juventus, as well as going down by a single goal to European chasing Fiorentina and Atalanta – and of course their victory over Sampdoria.
Two evenly matched teams would each have a 36% chance of victory, at a neutral venue. Home advantage has been worth 0.18 of a goal in Serie A this season, which, when applied to those prices would give the hosts a 41% (2.45) chance of victory.
There is little to choose between these two, which means a price of 19/10 about a BOLOGNA WIN should certainly be backed.
Score prediction: Bologna 2-1 Udinese (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Odds correct at 0750 GMT (21/04/22)
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