Premier League betting preview and predictions


David John previews Sunday's Premier League game between Liverpool and Burnley at Anfield.

Recommended bets: Sunday Premier League


1pt Joey Barton to be shown a card at 85/40 - chance to play on Merseyside and liable to make an impression 

1pt Philippe Coutinho to score anytime at 13/10 - regaining his best form and worth a punt in the goalscorer betting

 Click here for our transparent tipping record.   

Liverpool v Burnley (1600, Sky Sports 1)


Burnley - the Premier League team who can't win an away game for love nor money - find themselves in the middle of a brutal stretch of four straight games on the road and Sunday's hosts are partly to blame.

Building works at Anfield over-ran before the start of the season and necessitated a switch of their first meeting in August to Turf Moor which now leaves Sean Dyche and his side circumnavigating England for a month.

Then again, Dyche should in equal measures be very thankful to the construction fraternity on Merseyside. The 2-0 victory over Liverpool that day set the tone for the newly-promoted Clarets with a major shot in the arm and a splendid record ever since on their own patch has been the basis for what looks like being a successful survival campaign.

The game itself was weird with Liverpool enjoying a whopping 80% of possession but the hosts did the business where it mattered by converting their two chances into goals and also gave warning over a worrying trend about the visitors' inability to come up to expectation against some of the division's lesser lights.  

While they have stylishly delivered knockout blows to rivals like Tottenham, Arsenal and even Chelsea along the way, head-scratching displays against Bournemouth, Swansea and Leicester (the latter particularly dismal) have left Jurgen Klopp with questions to answer again over a sustained title challenge while scrapping hard for a Champions League berth.  

Midfielder Gini Wijnaldum has attempted to address the situation and feels his side need to tackle those games against teams below them with the same sort of gusto that saw the Gunners put to the sword last weekend. 

I am sure Klopp had a smirk when he heard that - he has been banging his head against the changing room wall all season in an attempt to get that exact message across and time is starting to run out.

Perhaps better late than never though and convincing success here over the gritty Clarets would make up for at least some of the hurt and put them right back in the mix for second place as the remainder of the top six all take part in FA Cup fixtures. 

Burnley's admirable grinders will try and throw a spanner in the works by breaking up play as much as possible to leave the hosts disconnected and grafter-in-chief Joey Barton interests me very much.

An off-colour official ahead of his hearing on gambling charges means he is free to play while a new date is being arranged and I would be pretty stunned if the Liverpool lad does not put himself about with some verve and vigour. 

I don't class Barton as a dirty player but he likes to put his foot in and he should be in his element in this target-rich environment with the home side's collection of swift operators gliding around in both midfield and up front.

He can also get a bit over-excited with the referee and his assistants at times and the opportunity for him to boil over, let's say, is ripe so I am all for a small bet on a card of some description being flashed in his direction. If you need further convincing, check out his career disciplinary record against Liverpool - it is like a set of traffic lights. 

As for the hosts and on a rather less sleazy note, I have been watching the progress of Brazilian imp Philippe Coutinho over the past few weeks since his return from injury and he seems to be coming to the boil nicely. 

It has taken some time to get back to concert pitch after an ankle ligament sustained at the end of November saw him sidelined for six weeks but he is very nearly there and looked sharp and alert against Arsenal.

His goal against Leicester was rather overlooked courtesy of his side's overall abject effort and I believe he will contribute once more but this time in a winning endeavour.

Prediction: Liverpool 3-1 Burnley

Opta facts:

o Burnley’s last win at Anfield was in September 1974 (1-0). Since then they’ve drawn one and lost eight of their nine visits there in all competitions, scoring once and conceding 19 goals.  

o Before losing at Turf Moor in August, Liverpool had won all four of the Premier League games against the Clarets, scoring 11 and conceding none. 

o Burnley haven't won both games against Liverpool in the same season since 1929/30 - they were relegated that season from the top-flight. o Indeed, Blackpool in 2010-11 were the last promoted side to do the Premier League home/away double over Liverpool. 

o Liverpool haven’t lost a Premier League home game against a promoted side since the 2010-11 campaign against Blackpool (W12 D5 since).  

o If Liverpool win this match then they will equal their tally of wins for the entire 2015-16 Premier League season (16). 

Posted at 1615 GMT on 10/03/17

Recommended bets: Saturday Premier League


1pt Andy Carroll to score anytime v Bournemouth  at 15/8 - major threat to the Cherries defence up against a rookie performer

1pt Hull to score no goals v Swansea at 13/5 - expect a tight game from Swansea which can double their clean sheets this year

Click here for our transparent tipping record.   

Bournemouth v West Ham (1500GMT)


The way the Cherries players celebrated after holding out for a 1-1 draw in the controversial clash at Manchester United you would think they had avoided the drop on the final day of the season.

They could still be involved in that sort of scenario come May but the confidence gained from the performance cannot be underestimated with now a reasonably handy gap to the drop zone and control of their own destiny.

The tricky part is to build on that back at the Vitality Stadium as the fact they still have not won a Premier League game this year could have got a little bit lost in all the euphoria of last weekend. 

You would expect a team coached by the level-headed Eddie Howe to get back on an even keel pretty quickly and prepare properly but they will jog on to the pitch without Tyrone Mings, who has been improving by the week but now sits out the next five games after his set-to with Zlatan Ibrahimovic.

Mings is 6-5 and would have been a useful weapon against the aerial power of Andy Carroll (fit to play after a whack in the face against Chelsea) so it is the raw Baily Cargill who will most likely step in and fill the gap for Howe.  

The 21-year-old manfully played his part in helping stem the tide against the Red Devils but keeping tags on the physical Geordie quickly has him on a very steep learning curve.

The Hammers themselves sit in the relative safety of mid-table and are on a recovery mission after a 2-1 home defeat to Chelsea on Monday night.

That is no disgrace and they did not play particularly badly but patently lacked the speed of movement displayed by the league leaders and were unable to turn some good spells of possession into anything tangible until Manuel Lanzini’s consolation.

The pace angle should be resolved with Michail Antonio available once more to maraud down the flanks following a one-game suspension while the excellent Lanzini is thriving currently as the creative force in the side following the departure of Dimitri Payet. 

The recent form West Ham have shown on the road really catches the eye (WLWWD) and Carroll is fancied to enjoy another good day on the south coast by adding to the one he nabbed down the road at Southampton.

Prediction: Bournemouth 1-2 West Ham

Opta facts:

o Bournemouth’s only previous victory against West Ham in any competition was at the Boleyn Ground last season (4-3) – their first ever top flight win. 

o West Ham United have lost none of their three previous trips to Bournemouth in all competitions (W1 D2), winning this exact fixture 3-1 last season. 

o All seven of West Ham’s Premier League goals against the Cherries have come in the second half of games. 

o Josh King has scored five goals in his last six Premier League appearances for Bournemouth, this after scoring just three goals in his first 20 league games in 2016-17. 

o Bournemouth are currently on a winless run of eight games in the Premier League (W0 D3 L5) and have conceded 21 goals in this run (2.6 per game). 

o The Cherries still haven’t managed to win a Premier League home match against opposition from London (W0 D3 L5). 

o Of West Ham United’s 33 Premier League points this season, 26 have been won against teams currently in the bottom 10 (79%). Eight of their nine wins have also come against these sides. 

o Andy Carroll (49 goals) is one goal away from 50 Premier League goals. He’s currently averaging his best minutes per goal ratio in a single PL campaign in 2016-17 (a goal every 148 minutes). 

Everton v West Brom (1500)


The Baggies will have let plenty of punters down last weekend who counted on them to confirm their excellent home record against struggling Crystal Palace.

Manager Tony Pulis admitted they were not really at it and you can probably forgive them a rare off day at The Hawthorns such has been the quality of their season so far in the midlands as a whole.

Pulis might not be quite so forgiving if they don’t make a better fist of things at Goodison Park but the underdog tag (bigger than 5/1 in a place at the time of writing) might suit them a little bit better having been caught off guard and punished by two excellent pieces of football from the Eagles. 

That said, the season they have built has been based strongly on home form and just three away victories against struggling teams at the time – Palace, Leicester and Southampton – leaves them a good bit to find on Merseyside. 

The Toffees were rather flattered to get as close as they did to Tottenham last Sunday in a 3-2 defeat and their management have every right to expect a better effort as well back on home soil. 

A victory would make it six out of seven and four on the spin with goals seemingly not an issue as Belgian hotshot Romelu Lukaku continues to run riot against opposing defences. 

I have issues with West Brom and once again can’t accurately weigh up what we are going to get – I get the impression they won’t be a pushover but the hosts should just about gain the day in a match I won’t be punting on.

Prediction: Everton 2-1 West Brom

Opta facts:

o Everton are winless in their last three home league games against the Baggies (D2 L1), failing to score in each match. 

o Tony Pulis’ side won this exact fixture 1-0 last season thanks to Salomon Rondon’s goal – it’s the only goal in the last three Premier League games between the sides at Goodison Park.

o The last team Everton failed to score against in four successive top flight home matches was Manchester United (between 1990 and 1993). 

o Meanwhile, West Brom haven’t kept a clean sheet in four consecutive away top flight games against an opponent since March 1925 (a run of five against Birmingham). 

o Romelu Lukaku has scored three goals in six Premier League games against his old club, but all of these have come at the Hawthorns. 

o Lukaku now has 78 Premier League goals. Only three players in the history of the competition have scored more before their 24th birthday than the Belgian: Michael Owen (110), Robbie Fowler (106) and Wayne Rooney (86), while Lukaku now has one more than Cristiano Ronaldo (77). 

o This will be Tony Pulis’ 300th Premier League game in charge (currently P299 W95 D87 L117). 

o West Bromwich Albion (40 points) need just three more points this season to equal their points tally from the whole of 2015-16 (43). 

o Everton (44 points) can also equal their entire points tally from last season and also the season before (47) if they win this match. 

o West Bromwich Albion have won 39 points from 20 games against sides outside the top six this season (W11 D6 L3) – more than any other club in games between teams currently in positions 7-20. 

o The Baggies have named an unchanged starting XI on 10 occasions this season in the Premier League; more often than any other side.  

Hull v Swansea (1500)


While it is hard to convince anyone Hull deserve rave reviews since the arrival of new manger Marco Silva, they have certainly improved their chances of remaining in the top flight.

That is why last week’s 3-1 defeat at Leicester was so disappointing – yes, the Foxes are in resurgent mood but Silva’s side never really looked at the races despite an early fillip from the opener of the game provided by Sam Clucas. 

They did not do themselves any favours with some poor defending – most un-Silva like – while goalkeeper Eldin Jakupovic put in his worst performance for a while and was culpable for two of the goals. 

The latter could be a busy boy again and they now bump into a Swansea team at the wrong time as they attempt to make it five wins from seven starts with the Paul Clement revolution gathering some real momentum.

Their football has improved 10-fold since the former Real Madrid and Bayern Munich assistant has ridden to the rescue in south Wales but the 3-2 victory over Burnley also highlighted much more resilience and belief as they came from 2-1 down to claim all three points.

Fernando Llorente’s winner might have been the result of a clear foul but Clement has realised how to play to the strengths of the big Spaniard and I would not like to hazard a guess how much practice has gone in on the training ground to supply him consistently with such good service from the flanks.

Swansea have lost their last two road trips at Manchester City and Chelsea but were far from disgraced on both occasions and this represents a good chance for Clement and company to pick up another three valuable points on what is the start of an important run of fixtures  with Bournemouth and Middlesbrough up next.

Hull ousted this weekend’s visitors from the FA Cup at the KCOM Stadium in January but it is no shock to see punters already putting their faith in the improved Swans as we get closer to the game.

The ultra-shrewd Clement will go for the win but has admitted it is important not to lose either so I wonder whether a solitary clean sheet in 2017 will lead to him tightening things up further at the back.

It looks the obvious issue next on the agenda, so shutting up shop successfully could give them the chance to utilise a little extra quality in their ranks and nick a victory they can savour on the long trip back home.

Predcition: Hull 0-1 Swansea 

Opta facts:

o Swansea won their last Premier League game at the KCOM Stadium (1-0 in December 2014) but have since lost there in the League Cup and FA Cup. 

o Since Paul Clement was named Swansea City manager on January 3rd 2017, the Swans have won 15 points (W5 D0 L3) – three more points than they’d won in their 19 games beforehand in 2016-17 (12). 

o However, Swansea have also conceded 15 goals in the Premier League since January 3rd – a tally only Bournemouth (21) have conceded more than. 

o Fernando Llorente has scored three goals in his last two Premier League appearances. The Spaniard hasn’t scored in three successive league appearances since 25th January 2014 for Juventus in Serie A. 

o Gylfi Sigurdsson has already been involved in more Premier League goals this season (18 – eight goals, 10 assists) than in any other previous PL campaign, while he’s already matched his tally of chances created from the entire 2015-16 season (57). 

o Sigurdsson has been involved in a goal in each of his last six Premier League appearances, scoring three and assisting four more in this run. 

Posted at 1900 GMT on 09/03/17


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