FA Cup quarter-finals betting preview and predictions


Our Nick Hext reckons Millwall could take Tottenham all the way as he previews Sunday's FA Cup quarter-final clash.

Recommended bets: Sunday FA Cup


0.5pts Tottenham to beat Millwall in extra-time at 12/1 – I’m prepared to take a chance on this game going beyond 90 minutes with replays now banished in the FA Cup quarter-finals  

0.5pts Millwall to beat Tottenham in extra-time at 90/1 – see above   

0.5pts Tottenham to beat Millwall on penalties at 30/1 - see above   

0.5pts Millwall to beat Tottenham on penalties at 33/1 – see above  

 Click here for our transparent tipping record.  

Tottenham v Millwall (1400 GMT, BBC One)


There’s an intriguing London derby between Tottenham and Millwall to enjoy in Sunday’s only match in the FA Cup quarter-finals.   

It’s no surprise that Premier League heavyweights Spurs are odds-on favourites to get the win in normal time but I think Millwall have the potential to make this a more entertaining game than the prices would suggest.   

The Lions have already dispatched Premier League trio Bournemouth, Watford and Leicester in the FA Cup this season and they’ve done so without conceding a goal.   

Millwall’s defensive record is the main reason for their promotion push in Sky Bet League One as they’ve conceded a miserly two goals in their previous 13 matches as part of a 17-game unbeaten run.   

Tottenham obviously provide a huge step up in class for the Lions but I’m backing Neil Harris’ men to at the very least make things interesting at White Hart Lane.   

Spurs have won their last 11 home games, taking away the 2-2 draw against Gent at Wembley in the Europa League, so they’re clearly a hard side to stop but both Wycombe and Aston Villa have produced battling performances at White Hart Lane in the FA Cup this season.   

Villa held out until the 71st minute in round three before going on to lose 2-0, while Wycombe of League Two led 2-0 and 3-2 in the fourth round before falling to a heart-breaking 4-3 defeat thanks to Son Heung-Min’s late winner.    

Fulham were dispatched more comfortably last time out as Mauricio Pochettino’s team won 3-0 at Craven Cottage but I still reckon a disciplined display from Millwall can make life uncomfortable for the heavy favourites.   

Pochettino selected a strong side to get the better of the Cottagers but he still made six alterations to his starting XI so we can expect him to make use of his squad once again on Sunday.   

The scrapping of replays in the quarter-finals is of interest to me for my best bets.   

If we are level at the end of 90 minutes then the match goes straight to extra-time and possibly penalties so there will be no return game at The Den.   

First up, Tottenham have claimed three of their last five wins by one goal so I wouldn’t put anybody off looking at the 15/4 for a victory by the narrowest of margins for the hosts at White Hart Lane.   

However, I’m going to be a little bit more adventurous and back this match to go beyond normal time.   

Millwall have already kept out three Premier League opponents this term and I reckon Harris has the nous to devise a gameplan to frustrate Spurs.   

Backing all four possible outcomes after the end of 90 minutes with small stakes is my best way to support the Lions.   

Tottenham are 12/1 with William Hill to win in extra-time but Millwall are all the way out at 90/1 with Sky Bet to progress in that period of play.  

Interest is also required in a penalty shoot-out.   

Paddy Power make Spurs 30/1 to win on spot-kicks and the Lions are 33/1 with Hills to reach the semi-finals via the most dramatic of conclusions.   

It certainly makes sense to back the League One club to run the Premier League big-hitters close.   

Prediction: Tottenham 1-1 Millwall (Tottenham to win in extra-time)   

Opta facts:     

o The last time Tottenham played Millwall in the FA Cup, they went on to lift the trophy that year (1966/67). 

o Millwall last reached this stage in 2012/13, losing to eventual winners Wigan in the semi-final. 

o Harry Kane scored a hat-trick against Fulham in the last round. The former Millwall loanee has netted 20 goals in his last 22 London derbies in all competitions for Tottenham Hotspur. 

o Spurs have progressed from 13 of their last 14 FA Cup ties against teams from lower down the pyramid.

o Millwall have knocked out three top-flight teams so far this season, last doing so in 1936/37. No non-top-flight side have ever eliminated four top-flight sides in an FA Cup campaign (excl. finals).  

o Millwall have kept four clean sheets in their five FA Cup games this season, conceding twice v Braintree Town in round two. 

o Tottenham have won 10 of their last 13 FA Cup games contested at White Hart Lane (D1 L2).  



Recommended bets: Saturday FA Cup


1pt David Silva to score anytime v Middlesbrough at 10/3 - Spanish ace at the top of his game and a tempting price

1pt Lincoln to beat Arsenal at 40/1 - thoroughly professional, prepared and organised team who are getting better as the competition goes on; could pull it off

2pts Lincoln (+3) to beat Arsenal at 29/20 - won't get hammered and worth a cover shot 

Click here for our transparent tipping record.   

David John previews the matches on Saturday and Monday; Nick Hext previews Sunday's match.

Middlesbrough v Manchester City (1215 GMT, BT Sport 2)


City might not be anywhere near the hottest favourites of the day but they are still clearly fancied to progress to the last four at the expense of a goal-shy Boro.

The jury remains out to some extent in terms of how to assess Pep Guardiola’s first season in England but there are definitely some wrinkles to iron out in terms of strategy when it comes to claiming the ultimate domestic prize of the Premier League. 

That said, a chunky trophy to stick in the cabinet at the Etihad Stadium would be a reasonable return on investment for the Spaniard to reflect on over the summer and the FA Cup looks the most direct route to this end.

The chance to chase down leaders Chelsea is now that bit less likely after Wednesday’s 0-0 draw at home to Stoke as Guardiola’s decision to rest a few key figures ultimately backfired.  

They were inches away though on more than one occasion from that vital goal-bound touch to win the game as credit to Stoke, who produced their resilient best on the night. 

So the pay-off surely has to be no mistakes here with Raheem Sterling and the outstanding David Silva freshened up enough to play a part from the first whistle. 

The latter came on as a sub just before the hour mark against the Potters and his influence was immediate. 

He had two good chances of his own and was able to find the little pockets of space in amongst the packed Stoke ranks but a winning thrust from him or his team-mates remained just out of reach. 

Guardiola shrugged his shoulders and now presses on to a very winnable fixture as the home side plummet headlong towards oblivion in the top flight.

They dropped into the relegation places for the first time after a limp 2-0 defeat at Stoke last weekend and have gone 10 Premier League games since the middle of December without a success.

Three home wins in this competition against lower league rivals have kept manager Aitor Karanka from completely losing his mind but they had to work extremely hard last time to see off Oxford 3-2 – Boro have failed to score since and the solution to that issue is not an obvious one. 

City remain rather unpredictable at the back but Boro seemingly don’t have the cutting edge to exploit any errors and I expect them to be back to the fight for survival as their lone challenge by 3pm.     

Silva once again looks the pivotal performer at the Riverside and at 10/3 (Betway) in the anytime scorer market is extremely tempting following an outstanding display as well last week in the north east at Sunderland. 

This year’s last-eight games will be resolved on the day for the first time with penalties if necessary and an additional sub available in extra time.

I don’t see any need though for the visitors to waste any unnecessary energy with Monaco in the Champions League up next so it has to be City all the way in 90 minutes.

Prediction: Middlesbrough 0-2 Manchester City 

Opta facts:

o Middlesbrough have eliminated Manchester City in four of their last five FA Cup meetings, most recently in the fourth round in 2014/15 while as a second-tier team. 

o Manchester City however did win the last FA Cup tie between the two contested at the Riverside, winning 1-0 in Round 3 in 2009/10, thanks to a Benjani goal. 

o Manchester City’s last appearance at this stage came in 2013/14, being turned over by then holders Wigan at the Etihad.  

o Middlesbrough have won just one of their last seven ties against Premier League opposition in the FA Cup, though that win was against Man City. 

o Manchester City are the top scoring team left in the FA Cup this season (13), with eight different scorers finding the net. 

o Raheem Sterling has assisted five goals in his last six FA Cup appearances, including twice in the fifth round replay against Huddersfield. 

Arsenal v Lincoln (1730, BT Sport 2)


Lincoln City have already made a piece of history by becoming the first non-league team to reach this stage in over 100 years and I reckon they pose a bigger threat to mighty Arsenal than the 40/1 (Stan James) available – a much bigger threat.

It is not just down to having disposed of Championship outfits Ipswich and Brighton before sinking Burnley at fortress Turf Moor then rowing in once more this weekend based on blind optimism in the hope Arsenal's own turmoil will play a part in their downfall.

There is a good deal more fabric woven into this David v Goliath fable and it equates to better than a puncher’s chance of causing perhaps the greatest Cup upset of them all.

If sibling management partnership Danny and Nicky Cowley have failed to impress you so far then you are following the wrong sport.

Humble, articulate and thorough in their approach – which harks back to their days as school teachers – the duo successfully broke down the tie from the last round into six 15-minute stages and the plan this time will be even more exact – try to compete with their illustrious rivals for nine 10-minute matches.

To this end, the Cowleys have spent some of the build-up conducting condensed games of that length to help the players switch into the right mentality at one of world football’s premier venues.

The duo’s first venture in charge was with Concord Rangers in front of 62 people – they will now perform in front of 60,000, so what Danny will make of it all should be interesting considering he was “stunned” by little old Portman Road. 

I’ll wager he will take it in his stride. 

“Nicky and I are used to being the underdogs,” he said. “We are used to climbing the mountain and taking it one step at a time.”   

Managers and players are usually guilty of pinning a whole season on this type of scenario but the Cowleys have admirably managed to maintain their form at the top of the Vanarama National League since the quarter-final draw was unveiled. 

Two wins and two draws since ousting the Clarets include a 4-0 away victory in midweek at Braintree Town and highlights the measured approach all involved are taking – a trip to Arsenal has not become the be-all-and-end all of their campaign. 

Neither is it just an extra day out at the big boys but are we anywhere near a semblance of normality returning to this part of north London?

It is certainly not as straightforward as simply expecting some sort of backlash from the Gunners after a hugely torrid week for them and Arsene Wenger. 

Protests for his removal from power preceded the 5-1 defeat to Bayern Munich in the Champions League and the whole situation surrounding his future rather masked the rough deal his side got from officials.

In equal measures though, the way they rolled over in the final 30 minutes was rather embarrassing and some observers with far greater knowledge of the inner workings at a football club than me felt the players have now finally given up on him.

The running feud with Alexis Sanchez seems to be gathering pace too as a wave to the fans when substituted more than hinted it could be the last time he will be taking part in Europe for Arsenal.  

However, while everything seems to be unravelling around Wenger, one crumb of comfort has actually been the FA Cup.

Perhaps the return to football’s real grassroots has offered some relief for the Frenchman - the only entry in the win column from their last four starts came at Sutton United.

Perhaps it has dawned on Wenger as well this is a very real opportunity considering the way fortune has smiled on them with the draw so far and he can at least say farewell with some silverware if a summer break-up does occur.

Bookmakers have shortened the hosts to such a prohibitive price now it is almost ludicrous and there is no way I can watch this game kick-off without recommending siding with Lincoln.

A three-goal start (yes, three) is odds-against (29/20, Coral) and looks rock solid while it would be remiss not to invest on the 40/1 as well.   

I will leave the final line to Danny Cowley, who succinctly summed things up in his customary measured way: “We could play our very best and Arsenal might still blow us away and win 5-0.

“But we are also professional and prepared. We might surprise some people.”

I very much agree with the last sentiment.

Prediction: Arsenal 1-2 Lincoln 

Opta facts: 

o Lincoln are the first non-league side to be in the last eight of the FA Cup since QPR in 1913/14. This is the furthest they’ve ever gone in the competition. 

o The last non-league team to play in an FA Cup semi-final were Swindon in 1911/12.

o By contrast, the Gunners are looking to make the semi-final of the competition for the third time in the last four seasons, having won the trophy in 2013/14 and 2014/15. 

o Arsene Wenger has taken Arsenal to the sixth round stage 12 times before, progressing to the semi-final on 10 occasions. 

o Lincoln’s only previous FA Cup progressions at the expense of top-flight teams have been against West Brom in the third round in 1960/61 and against Burnley in the last round. 

o Theo Walcott has scored four times in the FA Cup this season, with no player left in the competition having scored more than him. 

o Walcott has scored six times in his last four FA Cup games but none of those goals have come at the Emirates. His last FA Cup goal there was in January 2012 v Aston Villa. 

o Sean Raggett’s winning goal in Round 5 was Lincoln’s only shot on target in the match. Raggett also scored in Round 1 v Altrincham. 

Posted at 1500 GMT on 09/03/17


Posted at 1050 GMT on 10/03/17  



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