Chelsea boss Thomas Tuchel
Our match preview with best bets for Manchester City v Chelsea

Premier League betting tips: Manchester City v Chelsea best bets and preview


After a 22/1 winner in midweek, alongside a 14/1 suggestion, Tom Carnduff has three best bets for Manchester City's clash with Chelsea.


Football betting tips: Manchester City v Chelsea

1pt Joao Cancelo to be shown a card at 11/4 (bet365)

1pt Kevin De Bruyne to be shown a card at 10/1 (bet365)

0.5pts Cesar Azpilicueta and Kevin De Bruyne to be shown a card at 50/1 (bet365)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook


After the results in midweek, this game has turned out to be a dress rehearsal for the Champions League final. City, the favourites throughout, are now 90 minutes away from their long awaited European crown, while Chelsea's involvement is testament to the remarkable turnaround under Thomas Tuchel's guidance.

With City set to be Premier League champions again and Chelsea expected to finish in the top four, a lot of the narrative around this game will be looking towards the meeting in Istanbul at the end of May. If we're being honest, with the situation in the league, many will be watching this with that final in mind.

Whatever happens here, that Champions League final will be a different game. City are within touching distance of domestic success but Chelsea have been a revelation under Tuchel. Their results and dominance in games is not just leading to three points on a weekly basis, it's highlighting how they are ready to challenge City next season. The hosts shouldn't be an odds-on price for victory on Saturday.


Kick-off time: 17:30 BST, Saturday

TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event

Home 10/11 | Draw 12/5 | Away 16/5


Consider the cards with Taylor's appointment

Wednesday's preview of Chelsea v Real Madrid delivered a 22/1 winning card double with Toni Kroos and Mason Mount both being booked in the second-half. That was alongside a 14/1 winner in the same game and a 14/1 winner in City's first leg victory over PSG from two pre-game tweets.

It's not a guaranteed route to profit of course, nothing is, but it does show that the value is on offer if you have the right game with the right referee in charge. Saturday's game will see Anthony Taylor as the man in the middle, and that appointment could signal a few more cards here.

His average cards per game in all competitions is just shy of the 3.5 mark. We have to factor in how that average can be dragged down by mid-table contests that see few fouls and under booking points being hit, but his attitude to 'big-six' encounters gives hope that he will play to the average and potentially go above here.

He showed four yellows in the previous league meeting between these two teams. There were three in Spurs' win over Manchester United, three in Leicester's win over Liverpool and three in United's victory over City in the Manchester derby. There were five in City's win at Leicester.

Cards could be, well, on the cards if it is a tight encounter too. The defensive solidity of both teams should mean they cancel each other out and we shouldn't be surprised to see a 0-0 scoreline. I'm eyeing up under 1.5 goals at 2/1 or no goalscorer at 8/1 as two outright options.

Premier League referee Anthony Taylor

Three prices stick out in the cards market though and we'll discuss the lowest price of the trio first. That is the 11/4 available on JOAO CANCELO TO BE SHOWN A CARD and that looks good value when we take into account his foul count against other top-six sides.

Cancelo is joint-first in this City squad for average fouls per game in the Premier League this season with 1.3, but delving into those statistics highlights how he regularly goes above average when facing other sides in the top-six or 'big-six' opposition.

Four games this season have seen him commit three fouls, with three of those being against Liverpool, Manchester United and Tottenham. The other was against a Leeds team whose intensity has gained plaudits this season.

Cancelo has also committed two fouls in games against Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and Tottenham. Of those games where he's seen two or more fouls in the Premier League, 64% have been against top-six or 'big-six' opponents.

Cancelo has eight cards across all competitions during this campaign, with a booking against Manchester United in the Carabao Cup and PSG in their first leg win. I'm not too concerned with the actual cards tally here though, it's the high number of fouls in big games that suggests the 11/4 price for a card across the 90 minutes is generous.

Manchester City midfielder Kevin De Bruyne

The next two bets are banking on a player who hasn't seen many cards this season, but like Cancelo, the stats highlight how more fouls tend to come when playing better teams. I'm willing to back the 10/1 best price available, although 5s and 6s looks decent too, on KEVIN DE BRUYNE TO BE SHOWN A CARD in this contest.

As mentioned before, I'm not too bothered about the actual cards stats when it comes to this game. De Bruyne saw two fouls in both league games against Manchester United and three fouls in the league meeting with Chelsea at Stamford Bridge.

The midfielder had four fouls in each leg of their win over PSG and was booked in both. The FA Cup meeting with Saturday's opponents had one foul, although he was forced off with injury early into the second-half. Had he played the full 90, we could have expected one or two more given the situation of the game.

His three yellow cards in the Premier League last season came against Chelsea, Leicester and Manchester United - three games against opponents around them in the table. If he replicates his higher number of fouls on Saturday, we can expect to see that 10/1 price to disappear in-play.

Cesar Azpilicueta looks to stop Phil Foden

With the success of card doubles in the past couple of weeks, there is one that is well worth a play because of the value on offer. There is a best price of 50/1 on DE BRUYNE AND CESAR AZPILICUETA BOTH TO BE CARDED HERE which is a smaller stakes bet - although 40/1 is also good enough.

De Bruyne's reasons are listed above, and he is the factor behind this huge price, but Azpilicueta is 7/2 for a card as a single. That is too big based on his record this season. The defender sees an average of 1.3 fouls per game in the Premier League and 1.7 in the Champions League.

Like the two other players in this preview, his fouls tend to be higher against the 'better' teams in the division. In fact, he's failed to record a foul in five league games this season, but they were all against sides currently in the bottom-half of the table.

He had four away at Tottenham, where he was carded, and three at top-four chasing West Ham. There were two in the away trip to Liverpool and one at Manchester United. Azpilicueta is seeing fouls in away trips to other top sides and that gives hope to a card here. It's worth noting he was booked in the FA Cup win after committing three fouls.

Despite the attacking talent on display, it could well be a game that is low in terms of scoring and because of that, and the referee in charge, the best bets for this game can be found in backing CANCELO, DE BRUYNE and AZPILICUETA in the cards market.


Manchester City v Chelsea best bets and score prediction

  • 1pt Joao Cancelo to be shown a card at 11/4 (bet365)
  • 1pt Kevin De Bruyne to be shown a card at 10/1 (bet365)
  • 0.5pts Cesar Azpilicueta and Kevin De Bruyne to be shown a card at 50/1 (bet365)

Score prediction: Manchester City 0-0 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)

Odds correct at 1230 BST (06/05/21)


More from Sporting Life


Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.


Like what you've read?

MOST READ FOOTBALL

Sporting Life
Join for free!
Access to exclusive features all for FREE - No monthly subscription fee
Race Replays
My stable horse tracker
giftOffers and prize draws
newsExclusive content

FOOTBALL TIPS

We are committed to Safer Gambling and have a number of self-help tools to help you manage your gambling. We also work with a number of independent charitable organisations who can offer help and answers any questions you may have.
Gamble Aware LogoGamble Helpline LogoGamstop LogoGordon Moody LogoSafer Gambling Standard LogoGamban Logo18+ LogoTake Time To Think Logo