Harry Kane: Is the Tottenham striker in decline?
Harry Kane was the table topper last season. Now he isn’t even the top Harry. The Tottenham striker won the Golden Boot partly because of his persistence.
He had 134 shots in the Premier League, the most in a campaign when only three others even registered a century. Now he has had four, one fewer than Harry Maguire.
First in 2020-21, Kane is now tied in 111th place with Odsonne Edouard, who has only played 31 minutes, and defenders Luke Ayling, Lucas Digne, Jamaal Lascelles, Fernando Marcal, Antonio Rudiger and Joel Ward.
If it is explained in part by the fact Kane missed the first 162 minutes of Spurs’ campaign, it is worth noting that Cristiano Ronaldo, a later arrival, has had 13 efforts; way behind Sadio Mane’s 25, but far ahead of Kane’s four.
If he may have expected to be leading the line for Manchester City this season, he probably did not expect to be five shots adrift of Shane Duffy, and yet to open his account.
Are Kane's slow starts a myth?
Kane has a reputation as a slow starter of seasons, but it is not always entirely accurate. After four league appearances in each of the previous two seasons, he had three goals; in the previous two, he had two.
But in one respect, his numbers are not dramatically different. His key passes of 0.95 per 90 minutes are almost identical with his final figures for 2019-20 and 2014-15 (both 0.94) and 2017-18 (0.99), though way down on last season’s 1.42.
Those passes are yet to produce an assist whereas, at this stage of last season, he had already mustered four in one game for Heung-Min Son at Southampton.
That campaign long looked an outlier, in terms of his creativity, and not merely because of the South Korean’s finishing. Kane had an expected assists per 90 minutes of 0.22 then. Now it is 0.11, just as it was in 2019-20 and 2017-18.
Yet he drops deeper now. In 2017-18, Kane had 50 percent more touches in the attacking third of the pitch than the middle third (732-479). In 2018-19, he still had more in the final third (520-461).
Now he has had 50 percent more in the middle third (75-50). He did not touch the ball at all in the penalty box in the defeat to Crystal Palace and only 14 of his 129 touches (10.8 percent) this season have been in the 18-yard area. In 2017-18, 19.2 percent of his touches were.
Shot-shy Spurs
And in a shot-shy Spurs team, his goal threat is dramatically down. Kane’s xG per 95 minutes is at a lowly 0.17. Apart from 2019-20 (0.46), it has been at least 0.60 every season since 2014-15.
That 0.17 figure puts Kane tied for 81st in the Premier League, behind Wolves right-back Nelson Semedo and Burnley centre-back James Tarkowski. His overall xG of 0.56 is below Mark Noble’s, after two minutes.
And if that is because of the West Ham captain’s penalty on Sunday, Kane has played over 200 minutes more than Everton’s Andre Gomes and has a lower xG.
His shot volume is way down. He averaged 3.91 shots per 90 minutes last season, the most of any regular in the league. Now it is 1.25; Ronaldo leads the way on 6.50, followed by some of the other usual suspects, in Mane, Raheem Sterling, Michail Antonio and Mohamed Salah.
Kane only ranks sixth among Tottenham players and joint 100th in the league with his England team-mate Tyrone Mings.
Of those four shots, one was from a direct free kick and another stemmed from a corner. Last season, in contrast, he mustered 94 shots from open play.
It reflects a wider issue: Spurs averaged 8.26 shots per game in open play last season. That is down to 5.8 so far. They were outshot in open play last season, something that was camouflaged by Kane’s finishing.
Kane trying to mask creativity issues
So was a lack of creativity, which feels more of a problem now. There is no Tottenham player in the top 42 for shot-creating actions per 90 minutes (Steven Bergwijn, who has missed the last two league games and has thus played little with Kane, leads the way on 3.49, with Lucas Moura next in 97th).
Given Kane’s goal and assist tallies last season, it is remarkable no Spurs footballer was in the top 34 then, though Son and Kane soon followed.
If that is one explanation of why Kane is dropping deeper – to compensate for Christian Eriksen’s departure – it is a question how much his diminishing returns this season is a symptom and how much a cause.
Tottenham have the lowest xG, the third fewest shots and a lone goal in open play.
Kane wasn’t even on the pitch for that strike, when Son scored against Manchester City. The reasons to believe he and they will become more prolific lie more in his history than in the evidence supplied so far this season.
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