Monday Night Football betting tips: Fulham v Burnley best bets and preview
Fulham must beat Burnley to keep their Premier League survival hopes alive on Monday night. But our tipster Joe Rindl is backing the Clarets to come out on top.
Premier League betting tips: Fulham v Burnley
1pt Burnley to win at 27/10 (SBK)
1pt Burnley to win with -1 handicap at 29/4 (RedZone)
The permutations are refreshingly simple as we approach the business end of the season. With four games to go, Fulham are nine points behind both Burnley and safety.
Of course, an instant return to the second tier for Scott Parker’s side has looked on the cards since September. Even if they were to pull off a home win on Monday night I imagine they’d only be delaying the inevitable.
The Cottagers have picked up just one point from their past six games and against West London rivals Chelsea last time out, sadly they never got going in a 2-0 defeat.
And I say sadly because plenty of neutrals - myself included - have a bit of a soft spot for Fulham. What’s not to love? A pretty, old-school ground, and a young manager with young players wanting to play the right way.
It’s alright looking from afar though. I imagine being a fan will conjure up feelings of frustration rather than sympathy.
Fulham’s home form is a miserable read with 11 losses, four draws and just two wins. It also includes only nine goals scored and 24 conceded.
Burnley set for a sixth consecutive Premier League stay
Burnley have already won 3-0 at Craven Cottage in the FA Cup this season and have a decent away record with wins at Liverpool, Crystal Palace, Everton and Wolves in 2021.
That Wolves game two weeks ago was one of the best I’ve seen by a Burnley outfit in the Premier League. The visitors were utterly dominant, winning 4-0 and controlling the fixture from the first minute to the last.
So why are the Clarets down the bottom in 17th?
This term, Sean Dyche’s side have been well, very Sean Dychey. Burnley have always looked safe having picked up just enough points to maintain their lead over the bottom three.
Sure they may have lost four of their past five, but it’s those big wins over the likes of Wolves that mean they’re just four points off the 40-point mark.
Both these sides have been in poor form, but a quick look at Infogol’s expected goals model and it’s clear that Fulham are the worse for wear.
The Cottagers have been second best in the xG battle in six of their last eight games. In that stretch, Burnley were clear of their opponents exactly half the time.
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
- xG process is the rate at which a teams creates and concedes chances
The nine point gap in the table doesn’t lie. There’s a substantial difference between these two clubs.
Will Burnley beat Fulham?
With Fulham needing a win to extend their survival hopes, the bookies have Parker’s side as favourites at 6/5.
However I don't see anything but an away victory so I'd strongly encourage punters to go with BURNLEY TO WIN at a brilliant 27/10 available on SBK.
I think the bookies have made a real oversight and I’d also consider BURNLEY TO WIN WITH A -1 HANDICAP at a shockingly long 29/4 with RedZone.
Granted the Clarets aren’t serial winners, but three of their last four victories in all competitions have been by at least two goals.
Plus that 3-0 FA Cup win in January means that Burnley have incredibly only scored six goals less than Fulham at Craven Cottage this season.
Fulham v Burnley best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Burnley to win at 27/10 (SBK)
- 1pt Burnley to win with -1 handicap at 29/4 (RedZone)
Score prediction: Fulham 0-3 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 33/1)
Odds correct 2000 BST (07/05/21)
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