FA Cup final: Tactical analysis of how Leicester can beat Chelsea
You're only as good as your last game.
While Leicester City edged out a heavily rotated Manchester United, Chelsea were the makers of their own downfall in a 1-0 loss to rivals Arsenal.
It's a timely reminder that anything can happen in football.
Before their London derby the conversation around Thomas Tuchel’s Chelsea had already evolved from a debate over whether his side can challenge for the Premier League title next season to a question of what on earth could stand in their way.
Across 25 matches as Chelsea manager Tuchel had only lost twice, once in the second leg of a Champions League tie through which the Blues qualified and once in the league - when playing with ten men for an hour of the contest.
Leicester stand in the way of Tuchel’s first piece of silverware in England on Saturday.
I doubt Leicester boss Brendon Rodgers' will look too heavily into Arsenal's tactics to stop Chelsea, after all it was the Blues who won the xG battle by a healthy 2.08 to 0.61.
But he could learn from the similarity between the approaches of Porto and West Brom in their - dare I say - deserved 1-0 and 5-2 victories over Tuchel’s side.
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
Aggression could be key
Both teams played with a lot of aggression: West Brom enjoying the physical battle with a direct and confrontational approach (that led to Thiago Silva’s early dismissal), while Porto did everything they could to rough Chelsea up.
That fractious Champions League tie was the most ruffled we have seen Tuchel’s team and a sign that the best way to disrupt the soothing rhythms of Chelsea’s possession football is to force a scrappier fight.
Leicester aren’t exactly adept at doing that. This is a team of tactically-astute technicians with a manager nothing like Sam Allardyce or Sergio Conceicao in terms of attitude or psychological profile.
Nevertheless there is a tactical foundation to the feisty, niggling approach that West Brom and Porto deployed and Leicester do have the personnel to mimic their wing-focused, counter-attacking strategy.
The Blues will dominate possession and Leicester would be wise to accept that, setting up with a low block and only engaging in the press once Tuchel’s side have entered their half.
Chelsea’s detailed structure and compression of bodies through the central column of the pitch allows them to recycle the ball easily enough, and when opponents seek to confront them high up the pitch the inside forwards – and in particular Mason Mount – find the spaces they need to receive line-breaking passes into the final third.
But West Brom and Porto didn’t find success by sitting back and defending – far from it. Both sides were boldly confrontational, snapping into challenges and pressing hard onto Chelsea’s midfield players once the ball entered their half; to beat Chelsea, it is important to disrupt the rhythm of their passing as soon as attacks get close to the playmakers.
Chelsea's channels their weak spot
And when the ball is won back Leicester must counter-attack decisively through the channels.
Porto had limited success in this, but West Brom – through the direct dribbling of Matt Phillips, Matheus Pereira, and Callum Robinson – repeatedly charged beyond Chelsea’s advanced wing-backs.
A back three system can be caught short with enough courage and verticality on the break, especially if three or four players burst forward down either flank.
This may take a bit of adaptation from Leicester, who travel to Wembley in poor form and therefore may not be able to approach this game with the aggression and self-belief necessary to interrupt Chelsea’s flow.
Tuesday’s nervy 2-1 win against a reserve Manchester United side will have done little to improve the mood following last weekend’s 4-2 loss against Newcastle United.
Then again, Rodgers’ 3-4-1-2 formation looks a good shape to nullify Chelsea’s attackers (by going man-to-man at the back), while strikers Jamie Vardy and Kelechi Iheanacho can make tandem runs on the outside of the centre-backs to receive longer passes through the lines when counter-attacking scenarios develop.
Youri Tielemans and James Maddison are adept at playing quick line-splitting passes, but on Saturday these will need to come earlier than usual, while the two strikers should be encouraged to run into wide areas to take advantage of the gaps left behind Chelsea’s wing-backs.
That’s the theory, anyway, but in practice Leicester don’t seem quite ready for the challenge. Vardy’s poor form is a sign of the fatigue that seems to be gripping the squad, with Tielemans also looking leggy.
Any weariness or passivity through midfield will allow this narrow Chelsea team led by N’Golo Kante to dominate through the middle. It is easy to envisage Mount and Kante scurrying around an exhausted Leicester midfield looking tentative in a deep block with which they are relatively unfamiliar.
Who will win the FA Cup final?
What’s more, conceding four goals to Newcastle showed Jonny Evans’ importance in organising the defence.
Leicester’s back three was over-stretched and Callum Wilson took full advantage of the holes, making runs on the shoulder of the last defender to get in behind. The defining feature of Saturday’s FA Cup final is likely to be Timo Werner bursting through an Evans-less Leicester defence to devastating effect. Back Werner to score any time at 15/8.
Even if Chelsea did not have a clear tactical advantage they would be heavy favourites on fitness alone.
Tuchel is using his squad depth to good effect, resting all of Jorginho, Kai Havertz, and Mount for the 2-1 win over Man City last weekend. Chelsea can rotate while Leicester cannot, which explains why the former are surging through matches as the latter slow down significantly. Back Chelsea to win at 10/11.
But stranger things have happened. West Brom’s 5-2 win provides something of a template – aggressive mentality, counters down the flanks – for Leicester to copy, but it also provides inspiration that Chelsea are theoretically beatable.
It will take an immaculate performance from Rodgers side and one last fairy-tale moment from Vardy. If any club is going to pull off a shock FA Cup win, well, it would be Leicester.
Odds correct at 0900 BST (13/05/21)
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