Euro 2020 betting tips: Croatia v Czech Republic best bets and preview
Croatia aim to bounce back from defeat by England against Scotland's conquerors the Czech Republic on Friday. Michael Beardmore has a preview and best bets.
Euro 2020 betting tips: Croatia v Czech Republic
1pt Luka Modric 1+ right-footed shot on target at 2/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Luka Modric 2+ right-footed shots on target at 18/1 (Sky Bet)
It would be quite some fall from grace should 2018 World Cup finalists Croatia be eliminated from Euro 2020 at the group stage - but that's the eventuality they would be staring in the face should they lose to the Czech Republic at teatime on Friday.
The Croats will certainly need to be more adventurous and show more attacking guile than they did in their tame 1-0 defeat by England at Wembley on Sunday, a game in which they barely troubled Three Lions stopper Jordan Pickford.
The Czech Republic, meanwhile, will, to have a chance of success, probably need to be less adventurous than they were in beating Scotland, some scintillating attacking play contrasted by some dicey defending that the Scots failed to punish.
Kick-off time: 1700 BST, Friday
TV channel: BBC One
Venue: Hampden Park - Glasgow, Scotland
Croatia 23/20 | Draw 9/4 | Czech Republic 5/2
The bookmakers must have priced this up with the Croats' past history, rather than recent form, in mind because they have Luka Modric and co as comfortable, albeit slightly odds-against, favourites.
On their respective first games I'd have it closer than the bookies do and the 11/4 you can find on the Czechs is tempting given Croatia's surrender to England was hardly a one-off - they have won just two in 10, against the giants of Cyprus (and that only 1-0) and Malta, losing to Slovenia and drawing with Armenia during that run.
The fear is that the Czechs will be happy with a draw from this one - four points should guarantee progress with so many third-placed sides going through. They have no need to push the boat out and with Croatia (just 0.54 xG against England) being a fairly one-dimensional possession-based outfit, this should be a cagey affair.
Many eyes will be on Patrik Schick after the Czech striker's headline-grabbing brace against Scotland which included that unforgettable strike from just inside the hosts' half at Hampden - which is also the venue for this Group D fixture.
If you fancy a little nibble on him, Sky Bet have boosted Schick to score from outside the area to 25/1 and to net with a header, as he did for his first goal against the Scots, to 12/1. Tomas Soucek is also boosted to 15/2 to score anytime but plays slightly deeper for the Czechs than he does for his club, West Ham. It's another very inviting price though.
If you like your longer shots, they are the way to go but I just feel the Czechs will get nowhere near as many opportunities as they did against Scotland and given Croatia are surely going to dominate possession, it's best to seek value in that direction.
The trouble with the Croats is that manager Zlatko Dalic has a plethora of attacking options available, many of whom are interchangeable, and while he usually sticks with his trusted starters, he might be tempted to change things after their blunt display against England.
Get magic Modric onside
That makes their line-up tricky to predict but one man guaranteed to start is Modric - and there is some real value in the Sky Bet shots market to be found with Croatia's talisman.
Real Madrid's former Tottenham playmaker is even money to register a shot on target which looks a solid enough bet when Croatia's need for a goal and the likelihood of the Czechs sitting back suggests there will be shots from distance.
But that price doubles to 2/1 for MODRIC TO HAVE 1+ RIGHT-FOOTED SHOTS ON TARGET - that's his dominant foot so it seems a hike from evens and it's a bet that would have landed against England.
Modric averages around a shot on target every 2.5 games for club and country, mostly with his right foot, and in the hope that the Croats are frustrated long enough by the Czechs to begin peppering the goal, it's worth a small play on him to have two.
The odds jump to 18/1 for MODRIC TO HAVE 2+ RIGHT-FOOTED SHOTS ON TARGET - given he takes free-kicks and will, as always, shoulder a large burden of Croatia's expectations, that price looks big by comparison to team-mates such as Ante Rebic (a tiny 11/2).
In a game where the outcome is uncertain, it makes sense to back Croatia to seek inspiration from their skipper and best player considering their need for victory in order to progress.
Croatia v Czech Republic score prediction and best bets
1pt Luka Modric 1+ right-footed shot on target at 2/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Luka Modric 2+ right-footed shots on target at 18/1 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Croatia 1-1 Czech Republic (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 1200 BST (16/06/21)
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
MOST READ FOOTBALL
FOOTBALL TIPS
