The second round of the Carabao Cup continues on Wednesday. Tom Carnduff picks out three goalscorer bets at great prices.
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West Brom v Harrogate
- 18:00 BST kick-off - Sky Sports Football
A dream tie for Harrogate in the second round of the Carabao Cup as they get the experience of facing a Premier League club at the earliest possible opportunity.
They began life in the Football League with a convincing 4-0 win over Southend. West Brom, on the other hand, started their top-flight return with a 3-0 defeat to Leicester.
Of course, the odds are heavily favouring a home win here with the Baggies available at a best price of 3/10 with Sky Bet. Even with numerous changes expected, they should still have enough to get the job done in fairly comfortable fashion.
Harrogate needed penalties to beat fellow League Two outfit Tranmere in the last round and they'd be hoping for a repeat here given how difficult victory will be in 90 minutes. The 9/2 available on the draw shows that isn't a fancied outcome either.
With the home side so backed for success, the value comes in looking elsewhere and the immediate price that jumped out was the 12/5 available on Kamil Grosicki netting a goal anytime.
The winger had direct involvement in 16 goals across all competitions last season but only netted one following his January switch to the Baggies. The fact that he went from a regular starter at Hull to a player in and out of the starting XI at West Brom goes a long way to explaining why.
An unused sub in that defeat to Leicester, Grosicki should get vital minutes under his belt as they welcome Harrogate on Wednesday night and given the standard of opposition, his anytime goalscorer price is just too generous given his position.
Grosicki's 61 shots last season put him at the top-end of the Championship in this area and he should enjoy multiple opportunities to find the net in this contest. Even with changes potentially disrupting the flow for both teams, goals can be expected.
The Sky Sports cameras will be hoping to see an upset but even with West Brom failing to win any of their last five competitive games, yes they secured promotion despite no wins in their final four Championship games, the home side should come out on top.
Taking West Brom on the -1 handicap fails to bring an odds-against price, the same applies to a home win and over 2.5 goals, so the value lies in backing Grosicki's anytime goalscorer odds at a much more appealing 12/5.
Leeds v Hull
- 19:45 BST
Leeds may have been beaten by Liverpool on their return to the Premier League, but their performance in that game at Anfield has rightly earned the plaudits as only a late Mohamed Salah penalty could beat them.
Marcelo Bielsa's side went toe-to-toe with the current champions for 90 minutes, coming from behind to equalise three times, and even if they did leave empty-handed there was plenty of positives to take from how they approached the game.
Bielsa has brought success to a club that desperately needed it after a 16-year absence from the top-flight, but with the focus on good results in the league, Leeds have struggled to progress in either domestic cup across his two seasons in charge.
Some may be rushing to back the short 2/5 price on Leeds following that Anfield performance but some caution should be given based on their recent track record in the cup. That is largely down to the squad rotation in place for these games.
Leeds don't operate with the biggest squad and look to their talented youth players to provide the depth. It wouldn't be a surprise to see them make eleven changes for this contest. With that in mind, the 2/1 on Hull or draw in the double chance market shouldn't be completely disregarded.
With squad rotation in mind, it was a surprise to see Jamie Shackleton at 6/1 to score anytime. The energetic midfielder scored in both of Leeds' final two games of last season and got around ten minutes on the pitch against Liverpool.
He's a player that Bielsa clearly rates and it is easy to see why. Shackleton is a midfielder who loves to have the ball and wants to attack at any opportunity. As long as he is playing in midfield, and not filling in at right-back, the 6/1 on a goal against League One opposition looks far too generous. That ability to play in various positions explains the differing prices on offer.
Remarkably, his two goals came from his only two shots in the league last season but that should be expected given how the games before it were largely substitute appearances in the final minutes. When he has had the opportunity to strike in attacking areas though, he has taken it.
Even if he is part of the defensive back line there is still little hesitation to back Shackleton to strike given the way that Leeds play and what they demand from their full-backs. The four goals netted by Luke Ayling last season demonstrates that.
Don't rule out Hull's chances of getting something if it is a much-changed Leeds side as expected. Leeds should score regardless and the value is with backing Shackleton to strike at 6/1.
Best bet: Jamie Shackleton to score anytime at 6/1
Everton v Salford
- 20:15 BST - Sky Sports Football
Everton finally ended their long wait for victory at a big-six club in the Premier League when they beat Tottenham 1-0 on Sunday.
A fantastic header from Dominic Calvert-Lewin gave the Toffees a crucial three points as they showed positive signs of what the future holds under Carlo Ancelotti's guidance.
One huge positive for Everton was their new-look midfield with Allan, Abdoulaye Doucoure and James Rodriguez all given starts following their summer switches to Goodison Park. However, given how they face League Two opposition and a quick turnaround of games early on in the season, it's unlikely we'll see all three again here.
Instead, Everton are likely to go with the likes of Tom Davies and Gylfi Sigurdsson who occupied spots in the middle of the park during their unsuccessful 2019/20 campaign.
Crucially, Ancelotti could opt for changes to the back line and that will see some young players involved. That will give Salford opportunities to find the net even if the game does end in defeat for them.
Sticking with the theme of goalscorers, one player who looks a tad overpriced from the Salford side of things is Bruno Andrade. He's featured in both of the club's League Two and Carabao Cup fixtures this season.
In fact, he netted for Lincoln when they faced Everton in this competition last season. That was a quiet campaign on the goalscoring front, but the fact that he was out-of-favour with a new manager before a January switch to a new club goes a long way to explaining why.
The eleven goals scored in the 2018/19 campaign are a better indicator of what Salford can expect from their winger and he should reach that level again now that he's settled in with the club. Two assists in seven appearances during a shortened 2019/20 season suggests he actually adjusted quicker than most to a new environment.
Again, like Leeds, it may be easy to get carried away with Everton given their great performance at the weekend but their focus is likely to be on the league with European football a real possibility. That will bring changes and present Salford, big spenders in League Two, with the chance to strike.
In truth this is a game where the outright result should be avoided. With changes, the possibility of an upset increases drastically, particularly if Salford are at full strength. Instead, a contest like this is worth taking the risk on a 13/1 outsider in the goalscorer market.
Best bet: Bruno Andrade to score anytime at 13/1
Odds correct at 1130 BST (15/09/20)
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