Brighton v Manchester City tips: Premier League preview and best bets
Saturday's evening kick-off sees a top-four clash between Brighton and Manchester City and Tom Carnduff has found a best bet in the stats market.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Brighton to have 18+ tackles at 5/4 (Sky Bet)
Manchester City were excellent in their 5-1 victory over Club Brugge in midweek – a result that kept them right behind PSG in their Champions League group.
The attention turns back to the Premier League for an unexpected top-four clash as they go to Brighton. Graham Potter’s men have lost just once this season – although they are currently on a run of three successive draws.
It’s little surprise to see that City are a short 4/11 for victory here as seems to be the case in most games they are involved in. It’s not a guaranteed result though, Brighton won this fixture 3-2 last season while only losing 1-0 in their trip to the Etihad.
Kick-off time: 17:30 BST, Saturday
TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
Brighton 15/2 | Draw 15/4 | Manchester City 4/11
The issue with looking at the outright result here is that – beyond the short odds on the away side – there’s a clash between Brighton clearly being a side with something about them and Manchester City being, well, Manchester City.
The Seagulls have almost gone the opposite way to what we saw last season. They finished 16th but should have been 5th based on Infogol’s table yet this season they are 4th when they should be 9th. Ultimately, it’s all about points on the board.
Despite that, they are still underperforming on expected goals for (xGF) with their eight goals coming from a figure of 9.6. It’s the defence which is keeping them up there – just five goals conceded despite 8.8 in the expected goals against (xGA) column.
There is one area that have improved on this season though and that is tackles. In 2020/21, they sat 8th in the Premier League for average tackles per game with 16.5 but the current campaign is telling a different story.
Potter’s men top England’s top-flight in this area with a considerably higher 19.9 across their eight games so far. They are a side unafraid to step in when trying to win back possession.
As such, it makes the BRIGHTON TO HAVE 18+ TACKLES bet an interesting one at a price of 5/4. The average means they won’t have hit that every week but they have been consistent.
The Seagulls have played five home games in all competitions this season and averaged 18.2 tackles in each. What’s impressive is that the run featured a Carabao Cup contest with Sky Bet Championship side Swansea which saw them post a much smaller 12.
Their efforts in the Premier League have improved the average and the 18+ tackles bet would have won in three of their four home games. The only one that fell short was Arsenal – even then it was a very close 16.
We could point to the fact they are playing Manchester City but teams have been putting tackles in against them. Club Brugge managed 21 in the Champions League in midweek – landing a winner at 11/8 with Jack Hendry seeing two of them.
City have played seven away games this season – if we include the Community Shield trip to Wembley – and the opposition has averaged 18.3 tackles completed.
Even in one-sided home encounters, the away side has played their part in this area. Burnley had 17 in their 2-0 defeat, Wycombe had 17 as they were beaten 6-1 in the Carabao Cup while Southampton had 21 in a 0-0 draw. Even struggling Norwich posted 19 as they were hammered 5-0.
The game should end up in a City victory – although it may be narrow – but the best bet can be found in backing BRIGHTON to hit the 18 TACKLES marker.
Brighton v Manchester City best bets and score prediction
2pts Brighton to have 18+ tackles at 5/4 (Sky Bet)
- Score prediction: Brighton 1-2 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 1200 BST (21/10/21)
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