Brentford v Leicester tips: Premier League preview and best bets
Just one point separates Brentford and Leicester as the Foxes travel to west London on Sunday, but Jake Pearson fancies the visitors to prove too strong at the Brentford Community Stadium.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts Leicester to win at 7/4 (General)
‘A breath of fresh air’ is a now yearly cliché pinned on the lapel of one of the three teams promoted from the Sky Bet Championship to the Premier League, but it may actually be deserved when talking about Brentford.
Thomas Frank’s men have exceeded all expectations so far this season, producing entertaining football with the results to back it up, sitting in the top half of the table with 12 points from eight matches.
The ease with which Brentford can adapt to different opponents has perhaps been the most impressive thing of all, maintaining their fluid style of play against teams of a similar ability level, but employing a more direct approach against teams in which they have a lower chance of winning, taking points off Arsenal and Liverpool, as well as deserving more than a 1-0 defeat by Chelsea, perfect examples of just that.
The Bees have been good going forward, creating the eighth most chances in the top flight so far, but defensively is where they have impressed most, conceding the fifth fewest goals and the fourth fewest chances as per Expected Goals.
Kick-off time: 14:00 BST, Sunday
Brentford 8/5 | Draw 12/5 | Leicester 13/8
Basically, Brentford have been good. Better, in fact, than their opponents Leicester.
The Foxes made a miserable start to the 2021/22 campaign, winning just two of their opening seven fixtures in the Premier League, including a run of four league matches without a win.
A 1-0 defeat away at Legia Warsaw in the Europa League in the middle of that run hardly helped proceedings, and the pressure was certainly piling on the shoulders of Brendan Rodgers for the first time in his tenure as Leicester manager.
A 4-2 victory over Manchester United last weekend, however, and a thoroughly deserved one at that, has changed the mood around the King Power, particularly as it was Leicester back at their full-throttle best.
The 2.78 Expected Goals For (xGF) they recorded in that victory was the highest they have managed in the Premier League this season, and by some way in fact – their next best some 0.88 xGF lower – and it was a performance that has clearly lifted the players’ spirits, the Foxes breaking the 2.0 xGF barrier again as they put four goals past Spartak Moscow on Wednesday.
In fact, through Leicester’s first seven Premier League matches they created chances equating to just 7.92. In their last two games in all competitions they have created 5.59 xGF. Leicester are back.
This has the making of a very watchable contest, but there has been a striking case of overreaction from the bookmakers in terms of the 1X2 prices.
Brentford are two places and one point ahead of Leicester in the league, and they have the home advantage, but in no way should that entitle them to be sent off as favourites in this fixture.
At home to Arsenal on the opening day of the season Brentford were 3/1, and even more importantly, at home to Brighton last month they were bigger than 2/1 in places.
The idea that they should be shorter to beat Leicester than they were to beat Brighton – which they didn’t – is a tough one to explain.
The layers will have been stung by the Bees on multiple occasions this season, but pricing them with a close to 40% chance of beating a team that finished in last season’s top five is an overreaction, plain and simple.
In fact, Leicester have been underestimated on a consistent basis this season as well, with only Manchester City, Liverpool, Chelsea and Manchester United seeing their price when away from home shorten more drastically than the Foxes.
Rodgers’ men are most probably the fifth best team in England, and have been for a while now, but they are being priced like a mid-table team this term, and that should be taken advantage of.
A price of 7/4 about LEICESTER TO WIN is very enticing and should be backed with a fair amount of confidence.
Brentford v Leicester best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Leicester to win at 7/4 (General)
Score prediction: Brentford 0-2 Leicester (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Odds correct at 1620 BST (22/10/21)
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