Arsenal v Newcastle tips: Premier League best bets and preview
Arsenal welcome Newcastle in Saturday's early kick-off and Tom Carnduff has found value in the stats markets.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Arsenal to have 13+ tackles at 11/10 (Sky Bet)
1pt Allan Saint-Maximin to have 3+ total shots at 9/4 (Sky Bet)
Arsenal's good run of form was halted by Liverpool in a convincing 4-0 victory last weekend while the Eddie Howe era at Newcastle began with a 3-3 thriller against Brentford - although Howe wasn't present on the day.
Victory for Norwich pushed Newcastle down a spot to the bottom of the Premier League table and they already find themselves five points away from safety. Howe's task is big - all the talk of riches in the transfer market can't disguise the fact that they are in a relegation battle.
The hosts are 4/9 for victory here and - even with a positive attacking performance last weekend - it's difficult to really argue against that. Arsenal's 'reputation' may have us believe they're a bad side but they've won all-but-one of their home games since that early season defeat to Chelsea - the game that fell short was a 2-2 draw with Crystal Palace.
With the outright result such a short price, there are two bets to back with both coming in the stats markets. The first of which concerns the team tackles line and backing the hosts to clear double figures.
At 11/10 with Sky Bet, there is value in ARSENAL TO HAVE 13+ TACKLES. We know from their averages that they are a side who see more tackles at home than they do away.
The Gunners see an average of 14.9 tackles per league game - a figure that puts them 15th in these standings - but their average of 18.3 at home is the third-highest - only Everton and Wolves see more.
In fact, backing Arsenal to have 13 or more tackles would have been a winning bet in seven of their eight home games this season. The one that fell short was a Carabao Cup fixture against AFC Wimbledon where they had 12.
While the hosts are backed for victory, Newcastle's attacking performance against Brentford gave us some insight into what we can expect under Howe's guidance and one element is shots.
They had 23 shots across the 90 minutes but what was interesting is that 17 of those were from the trio of Allan Saint-Maximin, Callum Wilson and Joelinton.
With that in mind, we're taking the 9/4 on SAINT-MAXIMIN TO HAVE 3+ TOTAL SHOTS. He comes into the game on the back of posting seven against Brentford.
I'm slightly reluctant to use seasonal statistics given the new style for the team but he did have three in their away defeat at Manchester United back in September.
If this is the way Newcastle will be going forward then the value comes in taking the shots now before the lines - and prices - shorten in the future.
Arsenal v Newcastle best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Arsenal to have 13+ tackles at 11/10 (Sky Bet)
- 1pt Allan Saint-Maximin to have 3+ total shots at 9/4 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Arsenal 2-1 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 1530 GMT (25/11/21)
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